COACH’S CORNER: Why this is the hardest NRL premiership to predict. Ever

Exactly one day short of a year ago, I penned an article asking the question of who could win the premiership last year, with “defence wins premierships," the ultimate verdict.

I also listed confidently, the historical stats, including “...of the 116 teams that have won the premiership, 114 of them were top-four finishers. Only the 1993 Broncos and the 1995 Bulldogs bucked that trend” and, “...the past 36 years suggest that only teams that concede, on average less than, or around, 18 points a match wind-up winning the gold”.

Well, in what I am now about to argue one year on, the Broncos bucking the trend last season after conceding an average of a tickle over 21 points per game in the regular rounds is one of the signs of things to come.

For those viewers and listeners of the Loose Carry podcast, you'll know I always call this league the ”National Ping Pong Rugby League”, for the points avalanche we seem to be able to predict in at least half to two-thirds of our fixtures each weekend.

Because of this seemingly more ‘relaxed' attitude to defence, there is an argument doing the rounds that this year's NRL premiership could be the easiest to win and that, possibly as a result, this could be the hardest NRL premiership ever to predict.

And perhaps that is the most fascinating thing about the 2026 season, with the perceived beauty of it all very much in the eye of the beholder of course.

That Doyen of scribes Roy Masters made a compelling argument this week that the NRL has entered a hyper-competitive phase, with injuries cutting a brutal path through the competition and potentially leaving the premiership race open to whichever team is still standing at the end.

His suggestion is that if only one team reaches the finals with its best players intact, that team could find itself in an unusually favourable position.

There is certainly evidence to support that, but there is also another way of looking at the same competition.

Instead of asking who has been the best team, we can ask a much simpler question:

Who looks from a form perspective, like they can actually win the premiership?

And suddenly, the answer becomes much more difficult.

I now always wait until this time of the year to start making predictions because of the NRL's crazy rule that teams get two points for a bye. Thankfully, with only two rounds to go before finals time, there are only two teams with a bye to come, meaning I can put my abacus away for another year.

After 25 rounds, the Warriors (top), Panthers (second) and Roosters (third) are all sitting on 38 competition points, all separated by points differential with the Dolphins only one win behind them in fourth.

Then come the Sharks, who are one win behind in fifth, with their problem being that the Knights are one of the two teams about to have their third and final bye and the two points that come with it.

The men from the Hunter though, also have a far worse points differential than their rivals from the Shire.

Just behind them and both on 30 points, the Rabbitohs and Cowboys are not going to be comfortable about their position in the finals until the last weekend of regular rounds.

The Canterbury Bulldogs are only 2 points out of the top-eight yet haven't been convincing all year and have a negative points differential, and Manly are fighting to keep their season alive but would need some serious luck to go their way in the next two weeks.

In other words, with two rounds of the regular season remaining, there isn't a team sitting at the top of the competition that everyone is looking at and saying "that's the team to beat."

And that is unusual.

A matter of months ago, very respected and seasoned commentators were absolute in their views that it was the Penrith Panthers' premiership to lose.

This time last year, Canberra had 42 points and Melbourne 40. The Raiders had won 18 of their 22 games and the Storm had won 17.

Canterbury had 36, while Penrith were sitting seventh on 31 to the gap between first and eighth was 14 points.

This year the competition is compressed almost beyond recognition.

Right now, the gap between first and eighth is eight points.

Back in Round 20, NRL.com noted that eight points separated second and 11th, and that 13 clubs still harboured genuine finals ambitions.

That isn't just a close competition, it is a competition in which the traditional hierarchy has been smashed to pieces.

And perhaps that is why predicting the winner has become so difficult as there is now, no obvious formula. For several years, we could identify the characteristics of an NRL premiership team.

A dominant middle, plus elite halves, a fullback capable of creating something from nothing coupled with a defence that could survive finals pressure were a must. And, it was also a common that you wanted experience in your squad, too.

Yet experience often comes with age...and is this not becoming more and more a younger man's game?

This year, almost every contender has a question mark attached.

The Warriors? They have been excellent, they have a huge home-ground advantage and they currently sit first. But they haven't won an NRL title before.

The Panthers? They have Nathan Cleary and an extraordinary recent history of winning big games. But they have also been beaten by the Warriors, Roosters and Broncos during this season and they just don't seem the same since the Origin period, they started the season like a house on fire and Isiah yeo is currently on the sidelines.

The Roosters? They have been one of the competition's most impressive teams at times and Sam Walker has taken another step forward. But they have just lost to the Wests Tigers in one of the biggest upsets of the season.

The Dolphins? They are playing superb football and have won five straight. But they are going to be competing in their first finals series and may yet, not finish fourth.

The Sharks? They have the experience and have been in the preliminary finals in each of the past two seasons. But they have been inconsistent and are the epitome of the league's unpredictability at times.

And that now brings us to territory of teams that (should) finish outside the top four, and we already know the stats associated with that.
The Knights have gone from last year's wooden spoon to securing a finals position and that is one of the great stories of the season. South Sydney remain capable of beating anybody but are looking like a team that is running out of physical energy.

Throw in the Cowboys, and I wouldn't confidently tip any of the teams currently sixth and below would beat Penrith, Roosters or the Warriors in a sudden-death game.

Every contender has a case and every contender also has a reason why you could talk yourself out of picking them.

The injury toll has also had a profound effect on the competition.

The Melbourne Storm's extraordinary finals streak has ended, Brisbane, last year's premiers, are already well and truly out. They were at risk of the Wooden Spoon two weeks ago.

Canterbury, who finished third last year, are fighting for their final's lives and the top four from last season are set to miss the finals altogether if the Bulldogs fail to climb into the eight.

All this has destroyed our ability to use last year's hierarchy, or the stats since 1908 as a reliable predictor.

The competition has changed too dramatically.

And that is why I have absolutely no confidence in predicting the 2026 premiers.

I can make a case for the Warriors.

I can make a case for all them, including a couple of teams further down the ladder if they can get healthy at exactly the right time.

What I can't do is confidently tell you which one will be holding the trophy on October 4.

And perhaps that is the greatest compliment we can give this year's competition.

For once, we genuinely don't know.

Lee Addison is a former club coach at Sea Eagles and Panthers and the founder of rugbyleaguecoach.com.au. He is a Coach Mentor and his programmes for coaches and clubs can be found HERE.