Defence wins premierships... Doesn't it?
Not according to Norths Devils coach Rohan Smith, who told me once in a podcast that “scoring more points than the opposition wins championships”.
Hard to argue!
Yet the reality is, if winning the NRL premiership was as easy as finding one answer, then the relatively simple task of getting the best defensive or attacking side together would be all that the clubs need to do!
It's a lot more complicated than that! We are dealing with human beings. Each team has its own machinations. Its own melo-dramas. Its own mis-guided confidence. And so many other ‘its own's'.
Let's start in the obvious place. Analysing results and ladder places.
It is a common thought that teams outside the top-four don't win the premiership. Indeed, it's almost set in stone.
Of the 116 teams that have won the premiership, 114 of them were top-four finishers. Only the 1993 Broncos and the 1995 Bulldogs bucked that trend.
What is important to consider about the era in which the two teams broke that hoodoo, was that the game was transitioning to full-time professionalism at the time, with some teams seriously lagging behind the others in terms of adapting to the new reality.
The current top-four is the Canberra Raiders, Melbourne Storm, Canterbury Bulldogs and New Zealand Warriors, in that order.
The Panthers were in the mix-for that coveted fourth position only two weeks ago before two golden point losses to fellow title aspirants.
The Broncos and Sharks can still make the four whilst, the Panthers, by virtue of their team selection for Round 26 against the Bulldogs, will probably not.
We cannot write them off yet, however, for a number of reasons.
We will discuss the top-six (and the Panthers) later, but it's time to look first at the likely, also-rans.
In theory, the Tigers can still mathematically make the finals, whilst the Sea Eagles, Dolphins and Roosters are in a scramble to grab the last spot in the eight.
If we look at the results from Round 25, the Tigers lost and conceded 34, Sea Eagles won but conceded 30, scored by the Dolphins who themselves shipped 58 points, while the Roosters conceded 30 to a Parramatta team who sit in 14th.
The past 36 years suggest that only teams that concede, on average less than, or around, 18 points a match wind-up winning the gold.
By virtue of their likely finish outside the top-four, and defensive stats that sit nowhere near the magical 18 per game, we are drawing a line through the ‘also-rans'.
All they've got to play for in the last two rounds is self-pride, contract extensions and fan contentment. A finals finish will satisfy the power-brokers at each club and fans that things are moving in the right direction.
So now back to the top six, and the Panthers.
Penrith Panthers
There's something not quite right about the Penrith Panthers this year.
They have conceded an average of just over 19 points per game this year, so they are on the cusp of that magical 18, yet their attack just doesn't seem to be turning their on-field pressure into enough points in the big games.
Penrith's style in sweeping all before them during this decade has been about ‘staying in the grind' with high set-completion rates, in order to suffocate the opposition into submission, allowing their attacking stars to hammer all the nails into the opposition coffin.
They've simply lost too many high-quality players and leaders over the years and the quality of what is replacing them is not quite up to the mark, in several places.
Regardless of what TV-commentators and some media types will tell you, Nathan Cleary is not having a great season by his standards. He has less around him to work with, his ‘ice-man' moniker - given to him lately by virtue of one long-range field goal against the Titans - ignores the fact that he has been nowhere near ‘icing' so many other field-goal moments in the weeks since.
On top of his less-than-impressive appearances in a New South Wales jersey, I predict the finals series will see Panthers pull-up short and a term of introspection and adaptation becoming the order of the day for their prized half-back during the off-season.
I predicted Penrith wouldn't make it earlier in the year and I am standing by it.
That said, it is still absolutely amazing what they are achieving and how nervous they are making every other team in premiership contention.
The attacking statistics of the last 36 years suggest the golden number is around 22 points or more per-game, and the Panthers are well above that mark.
But against the top-four sides so far this year, they have a mixed record with three losses and only two wins so far in that category.
One of those wins was a slugfest against the Bulldogs in Round 17, where they only scored one try. Once they hit form, they also put the lowly sides to the sword, racking up the points.
So, it's a ‘no' from me for the Panthers.
Cronulla Sharks
While their attacking stats are in the zone, defensively they sit too far out of the place where they need to be to predict a trophy-laden, October weekend.
Their last game saw them ship 22 points, at home, against the Titans, who sit bottom. A week earlier, the 13th placed Dragons beat them, and that came a week after the Sharks only just scraped home against another struggling team, the Rabbitohs.
Hardly title-winning form, is it?
Barring a magical bye-weekend where defensive nuts and bolts were tightened in training and their half-back Nicho Hynes finally unlocking the way to steer his team to victory in the big games, then it looks like a very similar season in Cronulla to the last few.
Brisbane Broncos
The best attacking team in the competition have still conceded, on average, 21 points per-game.
In recent weeks, (a precession against the Knights last week aside) their defence has been awful and they have a 3-2 record in the win-loss column over the last five games.
Nobody doubts the attacking prowess at Red Hill, but it is clearly going to take Michael Maguire longer than one season to add the much-needed steel to the defensive side of the football.
That said, what a great turnaround by the Broncos and a season that they will settle on as, an improved one.
New Zealand Wariors
It's hard to escape the feeling that the Warriors season is limping to the line. The loss of Luke Metcalf to a season ending injury coincided with a drop in performance.
They had enjoyed a largely, generous draw in the second half of this season, and they have duly despatched the Dragons, then the Titans in the last fortnight.
But the weeks before that really knocked them off track.
They were significantly beaten by the Bulldogs in Round 23, a week after the Titans embarrassed them in Auckland and two weeks after they needed a last-minute intervention to beat the Knights.
They are not going to win the NRL title in 2025, despite sitting in fourth.
Canterbury Bulldogs
In terms of attacking and defensive statistics, the lads from Belmore are right in the frame.
In reality, things have been a bit rockier in the kennel since the end of June.
In Round 17 they lost the Panthers, then a week later the Broncos beat them on their own patch.
A run of three wins against teams outside the title-reckoning ended with a loss away to the Tigers - another team busy occupying the southern regions of the ladder. They bounced back a week later against the Wahs.
The last two weeks saw them put to the sword by the Roosters and beaten in Melbourne. It leaves them with a four-wins and five loss record in that period.
Their season has also benefited from a very kind draw as I outlined in a column earlier this year.
Maybe next year, Doggies.
Which leaves two teams...
I strongly believe that the only two teams that can win the 2025 NRL Premiership are the Canberra Raiders and the Melbourne Storm.
Teams that win titles are great at working together and have a consistency about their play.
From the outside looking in, both the Storm and the Raiders have a great team harmony. Yet if one team has edged it in the consistency stakes, it's the Canberra Raiders
Throughout the year, the men from the capital have successfully answered question after question as they have travelled more than many teams and been doubted about their title credentials time and time again.
They have a 4-1 winning record against the top-four, their only loss coming in a thriller against the Dogs in early May.
They have unearthed some serious talents in the nations' capital. There is a perfect mix of a beefy front row, an industrious and potent back row, a half in his prime and a halves partner who is being compared with the great Laurie Daley. Their highly exciting back-line is also the envy of so many in the competition.
The biggest question mark about Canberra is their ability to defend the football. Yet their defensive stats against the big teams are good. It's against the lower teams that they have relaxed, mid-game on occasions.
The Melbourne Storm don't have any such concerns. Their attack and defence are both statistically on the mark, just like the Bulldogs.
Yet, if we rule the Bulldogs out based on their form, then it's only right that we look at that again with our top two.
The Storm sit on a five-match winning streak and will likely need to make it ten wins out-of-ten or eleven to claim the title.
In losing the Grand Final last year, they just looked like a team that needed another year to develop, and develop they have.
And this is the Melbourne Storm. Title accumulators and one of the sports benchmark clubs for two decades.
Yet all year, there has been a feeling that Storm have been missing a little something they've had in the past. A mental fortitude if you like, even though the recent signs are good in that regard.
Raiders and Storm fans – book your tickets, your flights and your accommodation with confidence.
Just don't ask me to confidently tip a winner, yet.
Lee Addison is a former club coach at Sea Eagles and Panthers and the founder of rugbyleaguecoach.com.au. His recently published book ‘Rugby League Coach' is available now on Amazon and www.rugbyleaguecoach.com.au
Ahh Lee. Why don’t any of the “fed-up-with-our-coach” teams have the cohones to give you a run ?
Can’t disagree with any of your analysis.