A weekend full of surprise results has left the race for the top eight looking a little more certain than it was seven days ago, with five teams now out of the mathematical race to play finals.
At the top end of town, the Storm's golden point win over the Panthers pushes them towards a potential minor premiership, while the Raiders are still the main threat following their bye.
The Bulldogs' loss to the Sydney Roosters - although tipped here last week - also hurts them.
Penrith have also dropped two points to the Storm, but with the Bulldogs' form, we have given that straight back to them with a change to our Round 26 tips.
The race for fourth spot still appears to be down to the Panthers and battling Warriors, while the Sharks and Broncos - who beat the Dolphins - should be all but locked into the finals.
The Roosters and Dolphins appear to still be battling for the final spot in the top eight, with the aforementioned Dolphins' loss, and one for the Sea Eagles against the Tigers, hurting their charge to the finals badly.
Here are our tips for Round 25.
South Sydney Rabbitohs defeated by St George Illawarra Dragons
Penrith Panthers defeat Canberra Raiders
Melbourne Storm defeat Canterbury Bulldogs
Manly Sea Eagles defeat The Dolphins
Gold Coast Titans defeated by New Zealand Warriors
Parramatta Eels defeated by Sydney Roosters
Newcastle Knights defeated by Brisbane Broncos
Wests Tigers defeated by North Queensland Cowboys
With just three weeks to go, here is every team's run home and a predicted ladder.
1. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 1st, 40 points, + 168
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: Penrith Panthers (away - Mudgee)
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (away)
The Raiders, coming off a bye last weekend, head to Mudgee this week with a difficult clash against the Panthers on the menu.
A win would certainly push them towards the minor premiership, with games against the Tigers at home and the Dolphins away to follow.
There was some temptation to tip them for the win against the Dolphins in Round 27, but we have stuck solid at this point, figuring a road trip against a likely still desperate opposition with players potentially rested will be too much to overcome.
The likely win against the suddenly reborn Tigers ensures a top two finish, though.
Either way, a double chance in the final is now secure for Canberra.
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 3rd
2. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 2nd, 38 points, + 252
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (away)
The tough run home for the Storm continues with another top-four opponent this week in the Bulldogs, but at home and on the back of last week's excellent performance against Penrith, they will be confident of keeping their run going.
Despite Jahrome Hughes being sidelined, nothing we have seen suggests they are going to drop a game over the final three weeks, and as such, we have them winning the minor premiership.
They, like the Raiders, are now guaranteed a second chance come the finals, even if they do go on to lose all three of their remaining contests.
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 4th
3. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 3rd, 36 points, + 120
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (home)
The Bulldogs also have a tough run home. Their form has been anything but strong, and as such, we now forecast them losing both of their next two games before pulling out a win in the final round against the Sharks.
That all said, the Bulldogs should still finish in the top four. They would need a lot to go wrong for them to drop out.
Three wins would give them a mathematical, albeit unlikely, chance of claiming the minor premiership.
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 7th
4. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 4th, 32 points, + 12
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
The Warriors finally managed to turn the ship around over the weekend with a win over the Dragons, but it was hardly a convincing performance for a side who are back in the top four.
We expect them to win their next two games, despite their inconsistent form, but a loss to the Sea Eagles on the road in Round 27 could still drop them out of the top four if Penrith performs as expected.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 2nd
Worst-case scenario: 9th
5. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 5th, 31 points, + 115
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Wollongong)
A loss to the Storm over the weekend wasn't all that unexpected for the Panthers, but it certainly wasn't what we had tipped.
That said, the Bulldogs' lack of form means we are now expecting them to win that Round 26 game, and, provided they take care of the Raiders in Mudgee this weekend, and beat the injury-ravaged Dragons in the last round, a top-four berth should still await them.
They can technically still miss the finals, but it would take a long list of results to go against them, not worth publishing here.
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 3rd
Worst-case scenario: 9th
6. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 6th, 30 points, + 114
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
The Broncos' win over the Dolphins was one of the games we got wrong last week, with Ben Hunt and Billy Walters stepping into the shoes of Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam without issue.
They still have a point to prove over the final three weeks, but the win against the Dolphins, per our calculations, has them making the top eight again.
It's a tricky final two weeks, though, so they really need to beat the Knights this weekend.
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Up two spots
Best-case scenario: 3rd
Worst-case scenario: 11th
7. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 7th, 30 points, + 67
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Sharks had to right the ship over the weekend against the Titans, and they did just that.
The crucial two points, combined with a bye this week, mean they are only two points away from the finals, but they really want a home elimination final. For that, they may yet need to win both of their remaining games.
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 4th
Worst-case scenario: 11th
8. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 8th, 28 points, + 92
Byes remaining: 0
We managed to tip the Roosters' win over the Bulldogs last weekend, so there is no dramatic change to their forecast position, but it does help solidify their approach to finals footy.
They still likely need two wins, but with games against the Eels and Rabbitohs, that should be more than doable, while a Round 26 trip to Melbourne will be a true test of where they are at.
Remaining games
Round 25: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 4th
Worst-case scenario: 12th
9. The Dolphins
Current position: 9th, 26 points, + 109
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
The loss to Brisbane over the weekend hasn't ended the Dolphins campaign to play finals, but it certainly has put a pretty major dent in.
They may need to win all three games on the run in now, although a strong for and against will help their cause if they can find a way to pick up two, and have other results go their way.
But without three wins, they are now in the hope basket.
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Down two spots
Best-case scenario: 4th
Worst-case scenario: 11th
10. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 10th, 24 points, - 24
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: The Dolphins (home)
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (home)
We aren't even sure 'horror loss' would sum up the weekend for the Sea Eagles, with Anthony Seibold's side turning in what is likely their worst performance of the season against the Tigers.
The two bombed competition points mean they are relying on other results to make the finals. To have any chance, they must win all three games, and win them well.
We can't see that happening.
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 6th
Worst-case scenario: 16th
11. Wests Tigers
Current position: 11th, 24 points, - 107
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: North Queensland Cowboys (home - Leichhardt)
Round 26: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
The Tigers, on the other hand, came away with a shock win over Manly and are building some steam towards the end of the season.
They sit on the same competition points as Manly, but with a worse for and against. Technically, they can play finals, but like Manly, they are relying on other results and three big wins.
They have at least two winnable games, though, and will aim to finish the season on a high.
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Up one spot
Best-case scenario: 6th
Worst-case scenario: 16th
12. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 12th, 22 points, - 54
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (home)
The Dragons suffered three separate concussions on Friday against the Warriors before going on to lose yet another narrow game.
Maybe 2025's most unlucky team, the Red V will be up against it to finish the season strongly, and while the maths says they can still make the finals, it's not friendly maths.
They'd need the Roosters to drop all of their games, the Dolphins to drop at least two, and Manly and the Tigers to drop at least one, while gaining enormous amounts of for and against.
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Down one spot
Best-case scenario: 8th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
13. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 13th, 21 points, - 144
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 25: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 27: Bye
The Cowboys are the first team mathematically out of finals contention despite winning in an error-filled game against the Knights on Sunday afternoon.
They have just two games left before a final round bye, and at the very least, can look to take some momentum - and a Broncos-destroying win - into the off-season.
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
14. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 14th, 20 points, - 156
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Newcastle Knights (home)
The Eels' long, ordinary season is reaching its conclusion, with Jason Ryles' side joining the Cowboys out of finals contention.
Their loss to South Sydney on Saturday was just the latest in a string of results which is increasingly likely to pin them in the bottom four.
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 15th, 20 points, - 191
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 25: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (away)
Two points against the Eels will, with a bye remaining, mean the Rabbitohs are all but certain to avoid the spoon, and without results going against them, that is now the case.
They will be hoping to make it two straight this week before hurting the Roosters on the run into the finals.
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
16. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 16th, 18 points, - 186
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (away)
The aforementioned horror and error-filled loss to the Cowboys means the Knights drop back into 16th spot - where we expect them to finish too.
Hard to see them winning another game based on Sunday's performance.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 10th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
17. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 17th, 16 points, - 187
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 25: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 26: The Dolphins (away)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
On the back of their car crash loss to the Sharks, the Titans face a pair of teams in the finals hunt, and the in-form Knights over the final three weeks.
Given their for and against, they will need potentially two wins to avoid the wooden spoon. It's hard to see that happening.
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 12th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
Predicted final ladder
1. Melbourne Storm - 44 points
2. Canberra Raiders - 42 points
3. Canterbury Bulldogs - 38 points
4. Penrith Panthers - 37 points
5. New Zealand Warriors - 36 points
6. Cronulla Sharks - 34 points
7. Brisbane Broncos - 32 points
8. Sydney Roosters - 32 points
9. The Dolphins - 30 points
10. Manly Sea Eagles - 28 points
11. Wests Tigers - 28 points
12. St George Illawarra Dragons - 26 points
13. North Queensland Cowboys - 25 points
14. Parramatta Eels - 22 points
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs - 22 points
16. Newcastle Knights - 18 points
17. Gold Coast Titans - 16 points
Predicted Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1: Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers at AAMI Park
Qualifying final 2: Canberra Raiders vs Canterbury Bulldogs at GIO Stadium
Elimination final 1: New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters at Mt Smart Stadium
Elimination final 2: Cronulla Sharks vs Brisbane Broncos at Shark Park
