There are just 24 games to go in the NRL regular season, and the final ladder is starting to work itself out after a week of upsets.
Round 24 saw the Penrith Panthers, Cronulla Sharks and North Queensland Cowboys fall short, while the Canterbury Bulldogs made their task of playing finals tougher, and the St George Illawarra Dragons picked up a second straight win for the first time this year.
The Dolphins did manage to take care of business, while the New Zealand Warriors and Newcastle Knights picked up wins in the other game.
All that means there has been a change at the top of the ladder, and our predicted ladder, while only four teams are forecast to stay in exactly the same spot as they were leading into last weekend.
All up, there are six teams who can still mathematically win the minor premiership, while everyone down to 12th is still considered a prospect of playing finals footy, although the chance is slim for all but the top nine.
Here is every team's run home, predicted finish, and what they need to happen for their best and worst case scenarios with just three weeks to go in this week's edition of The NRL Run Home.
Round 25 tips
Melbourne Storm lose to Penrith Panthers
Canberra Raiders defeat Brisbane Broncos
The Dolphins defeat Parramatta Eels
Newcastle Knights defeat Manly Sea Eagles
South Sydney Rabbitohs defeat New Zealand Warriors
St George Illawarra Dragons lose to Canterbury Bulldogs
Gold Coast Titans lose to Cronulla Sharks
Sydney Roosters defeat Wests Tigers
Note: For and against calculations have been worked on a maximum of 40 points per week.
1. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 1st, 38 points, + 163
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 26: The Dolphins (home)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
The Roosters have jumped to the top of the table with a win over the Penrith Panthers, and their run home now could have them primed to take out the minor premiership, which we had them losing on for and against before beating the Panthers.
The tri-colours still have a question mark or two, and certainly off-field distractions could yet play their part, but Trent Robinson's side should at the very least be able to give their for and against a boost against the Tigers this weekend.
We do have them winning three from three on the run in.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 6th
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Up 1
2. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 2nd, 36 points, + 286
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
The Panthers come into their last three games with a form line that frankly looks a little bit shaky, not helped by the loss to the Roosters ont he weekend.
They head to Victoria this weekend with a tough clash against the Storm that should allow them to right some wrongs, before they will play a likely desperate Bulldogs, and then the struggling Tigers to round out the regular season.
Penrith will need to win all three and hope the Roosters slip up somewhere (or less if the Roosters slip up twice) to win the minor premiership.
As was the case last week, given they lost, they could still fall as far as sixth although in a realistic world the top four is just about locked in.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 6th
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Down 1
3. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 3rd, 36 points, + 276
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
The Warriors returned to form last weekend, and then rubber stamped the fact they were back by smashing the Brisbane Broncos in Brisbane on the weekend.
Outside of the rather comical point that they have won as many games at Suncorp Stadium this year now as the Broncos, the Warriors have taken a giant step towards the top four.
They face a challenging run in, but play their final two games at home. Taking care of business in both of those would be enough to lock in the second chance.
Winning all three and having the Panthers slip up once, or the Roosters twice, could mean a home qualifying final, or even the minor premiership.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 6th
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Up 1
4. The Dolphins
Current position: 4th, 34 points, + 120
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
The Dolphins have moved into the top four, but with a game against the Roosters to come, if the Sharks can refind their mojo, they look unlikely to hang onto it.
They should win two of their final three pretty comfortably though and enter the finals with a home elimination clash in Week 1.
The Dolphins have been a little up and down at times, but when they are on, they may well be the NRL's most exciting team, with a top eight berth now mathematically locked in for the first time in their history.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 7th
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Nil
5. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 5th, 32 points, + 165
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
The Sharks have slumped to their second straight loss against sides at the wrong end of the ladder.
At this stage, we are holding fire on changing from the three wins we expect them to have over the final weeks of the year, but an injury to Braydon Trindall could change that.
To get into the top four, they are likely to need three from three, and while their finals berth is locked in, not changing their form line quick smart could see Cronulla face a road trip in Week 1.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 8th
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Down 1
6. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 6th, 32 points, + 76
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 25: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Bye
The Knights have taken care of business against the Titans on Sunday afternoon, and continue to rack up the surprises without key men Dylan Brown and Dylan Lucas.
With a bye in the final round, they have taken a big step towards a home elimination final, but will likely need to pick up one of their last two to lock it in.
The Sea Eagles at home looks the most likely, while the Warriors away will be a tough challenge in preparation for the finals.
Win two from two and they could well sneak into the top four, although will need other things to go heir way with the Sharks and Dolphins.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 8th
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Nil
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 7th, 30 points, + 82
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (home)
The Rabbitohs picked up a critical win over the Bulldogs on Friday evening which should move them towards a top eight berth.
It's not quite locked in yet, but they aren't far away, and one more win over the final three weeks will all but seal the deal.
They have a tough contest at home with the Warriors this weekend, before travelling to play the Titans, and playing the Roosters in the final round.
It's not a straightforward run in, but they will be primed for the finals. To miss those, they'd need to lose all three and have Canterbury win probably all three given for and against, or one of the teams on 24 points - Manly, Melbourne or the Raiders - to record three big wins.
Best-case scenario: 4th
Worst-case scenario: 11th
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Up 1
8. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 8th, 28 points, - 78
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
The Cowboys just keep finding ways to ensure they aren't locked into the finals yet, falling short against the Parramatta Eels in a high-scoring clash on the weekend.
They have the bye this weekend which will give them two points, but they are now at the biggest risk of being knocked out if the Bulldogs can get it together.
Still, one win from their final two at home will be enough to mathematically secure a spot in the top eight.
Best-case scenario: 5th
Worst-case scenario: 12th
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Down 1
9. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 9th, 26 points, - 62
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (home)
The Bulldogs fell short against the Rabbitohs on the weekend, marking their second straight loss, and snuffing out a run that was looking like it would have them finals bound.
They will now need at least two wins to make the finals, but realistically, anything less than three from three won't be enough.
They do play the Dragons and Broncos in the final three weeks, but it's the game against the Panthers which will be of most concern to the blue and white.
Best-case scenario: 7th
Worst-case scenario: 13th
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Nil
10. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 10th, 24 points, + 46
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (away)
The Sea Eagles had one of their worst performances over the weekend against the Dolphins, all but putting a fork in their run to the finals.
The Manly side have struggled for weeks now, and are no guarantee to win any of their last three.
To make the finals, they'd need to do just that and have plenty of results go their way, with the Cowboys and Rabbitohs the only teams catchable, while they'd also need to jump the Bulldogs.
Best-case scenario: 7th
Worst-case scenario: 14th
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Down 1
11. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 11th, 24 points, - 4
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (away)
The Storm had their final bye of the season this weekend, and while the two points keeps them in the mathematical boat, they are in the same race as the Sea Eagles, except with a 50-points worse for and against.
To make the finals, they'd need to win three from three, starting with Penrith at home this weekend, and have all the results the Sea Eagles need, except also jumping Manly.
In short, the Storm are going to miss the finals for the first time (outside of 2010) in Craig Bellamy's two and a bit decade tenure.
Best-case scenario: 7th
Worst-case scenario: 14th
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Down 2
12. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 12th, 24 points, - 61
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
The Raiders for and against being significantly lower than the other two teams means they only really have one way to the finals - win all three games and hope they can catch the Cowboys. OIn for and against, the Rabbitohs are about 140 points up the road.
Canberra did beat the Sharks over the weekend, but they will need big wins against both the Broncos and Cowboys to go with their bye, and all the other results to go their way, to qualify.
At the very least, they are out of wooden spoon contention, but could still slump to as low as 14th.
Best-case scenario: 8th
Worst-case scenario: 14th
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Up 2
13. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 13th, 22 points, - 181
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: The Dolphins (away)
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
The Eels are the first team out of the mathematical race for the finals, with the club not able to make more than 28 points, and the current mark set at 30.
Parramatta did beat the side in the Cowboys setting that mark over the weekend in a major surprise, but that won't fill them with a great deal of hope to play two finals-bound teams over the next fortnight.
They finish the year with the Dragons, and that is their best chance at a win, and avoiding the throws of the bottom four.
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 16th
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Nil
14. Wests Tigers
Current position: 14th, 20 points, - 213
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (away)
The Tigers suffered their second loss of the season to the Dragons on the weekend, and are now destined to finish in the bottom four.
Worryingly for the club, they could still pick up the wooden spoon if the Dragons can turn two wins into five.
A tricky run home for the Tigers does make it feel like they are probably not going to win again this year.
Best-case scenario: 10th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Up 1
15. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 15th, 18 points, - 154
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 26: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (home)
The Titans did look like they might give a few teams a scare on the way in a few weeks ago, but it just hasn't happened yet.
Josh Hannay finishes his first season in charge with three straight home games, and will be hoping to send at least one of the finals bound teams packing in a result that could shake up the top eight.
The far more likely scenario though is that they stay right where they are.
Best-case scenario: 12th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Up 1
16. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 16th, 18 points, - 198
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Broncos had their doors blown off on the weekend by the Warriors at home in what may be their most disappointing performance of the campaign yet.
Brisbane have now lost Reece Walsh for the final three games to injury, and with some tricky games on the menu against potentially dangerous sides, it would take a brave man to tip them as likely winners.
Brisbane are still in grave danger of slumping to the wooden spoon if the Dragons continue their late run.
Best-case scenario: 13th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Down 2
17. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 17th, 14 points, - 263
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 25: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (home)
The Dragons have recorded back-to-back wins for the first time in 12 months by beating the Tigers on Sunday, and look to be coming home with a wet sail.
They have three potentially winnable games between now and the end of the year, and need at least two, but potentially all three, to be a mathematical chance of avoiding the wooden spoon.
Bogey side the Bulldogs are up first.
Best-case scenario: 14th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
Predicted final ladder
1. Sydney Roosters
2. Penrith Panthers
3. New Zealand Warriors
4. Cronulla Sharks
5. The Dolphins
6. Newcastle Knights
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs
8. North Queensland Cowboys
9. Canterbury Bulldogs
10. Canberra Raiders
11. Manly Sea Eagles
12. Melbourne Storm
13. Parramatta Eels
14. Wests Tigers
15. Gold Coast Titans
16. Brisbane Broncos
17. St George Illawarra Dragons
Predicted Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1: Sydney Roosters vs Cronulla Sharks
Qualifying final 2: Penrith Panthers vs New Zealand Warriors
Elimination final 1: The Dolphins vs North Queensland Cowboys
Elimination final 2: Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
