12 teams remain in the race for the Provan-Summons trophy, with five NRL clubs now officially out of the race to play in the finals series.
A weekend of intriguing footy which saw a handful of almost comebacks, one monster comeback, and two of the top four come up short in upset losses has shaken things up on the likely finishing ladder, and with just four weeks to go, is starting to rule teams out of mathematical contention.
Up to this weekend, the only team technically out of the race was the St George Illawarra Dragons, but now, with wins, losses and byes all taken into account, the next four teams are also out, with another couple hanging by a thread.
With the finals picture starting to take shape, and the top four and minor premiership races well and truly on, Zero Tackle runs you through every game remaining, the best and worst case scenarios for every team, and exactly what things might wind up looking like as the finals approach in this week's edition of the run home.
Here is how things stand for every team.
Note: In the best and worst case scenarios, we are assuming a maximum for and against turnaround of 40 points per game remaining.
Round 24 tips
Penrith Panthers defeat Sydney Roosters
Manly Sea Eagles lose to The Dolphins
Canterbury Bulldogs defeat South Sydney Rabbitohs
Cronulla Sharks defeat Canberra Raiders
Parramatta Eels lose to North Queensland Cowboys
Brisbane Broncos defeat New Zealand Warriors
Newcastle Knights defeat Gold Coast Titans
Wests Tigers lose to St George Illawarra Dragons
Bye: Melbourne Storm
1. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 1st, 36 points, + 292
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 25: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
The Panthers put in one of their worst halves of the year across the Tasman on Friday, falling well short to the Warriors.
The second half was better, but they had their doors blown off in the first half in a serious warning shot that suggested they aren't as far ahead as some suggested.
It could well be the warning shot they were after heading into the finals in all seriousness.
Maybe the biggest problem is that they may now have to do it without Isaah Yeo. We have them still winning the minor premiership, but it's crunch time against the Roosters this weekend.
The Roosters are now equal with them on points.
For Penrith to drop out of the top four, they would need, realistically given for and against differences, to lose at least three of their last four, with the Dolphins and Sharks winning all of their matches, and the Warriors and Roosters winning enough too.
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 6th
2. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 2nd, 36 points, + 157
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 25: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 26: The Dolphins (home)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
The Roosters didn't exactly do things the easy way on Friday against the Bulldogs, but they picked up a critical two points which moves them close to the minor premiership.
This week's game against the Panthers could be the decider, although the tri-colours play some tricky matches on the run in, with the Dolphins and Rabbitohs on the menu.
Trent Robinson's side are in the same predicament at Ivan Cleary's around missing the top four, so it's incredibly unlikely at this point they won't have a second chance in September.
This weekend against the Panthers could all but lock it in.
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Up 1
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 7th
3. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 3rd, 34 points, + 242
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
The Warriors are back, and it's not just him. Luke Metcalf made his return to first-grade on Friday in the aforementioned win over Penrith, and played a tremendous game.
As one of the best on the park, it's form that could keep him in the number seven jersey on the run in despite spending a large chunk of the year on the outside looking in.
As it stands, we still have the Warriors finishing in the top four, but that is with a loss to Brisbane this weekend. Getting the chocolates there would improve their standing greatly, and keep things alive if they want a top two berth which brings with it a home qualifying final rather than the other way around.
Home ground advantage is enormous for the Warriors. We saw it on Friday evening, so it's something they will want to attack for as many finals games as possible.
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 8th
4. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 4th, 32 points, + 169
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 25: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
The Cronulla Sharks have dominated their local derby against the Dragons in recent years, but that certainly wasn't the case on Sunday.
The club put in an all time stinker of an effort, and Craig Fitzgibbon's side, deservedly it should be added, fell short.
The Sharks are still sitting in the top four, but have plenty of work to do now if they want to get back into contention for a home qualifying final.
We still can't see them dropping another game given their soft run to the finish line, but at the same time, that will still only be good enough for third spot if things go as expected over the final month of the season.
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Down 1
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 10th
5. The Dolphins
Current position: 5th, 32 points, + 66
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 25: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Talk about putting your fans on the roller-coaster.
The Dolphins found themselves down 24-0 at one point against the Broncos before clawing their way back and clinching a fairly exceptional victory.
Kristian Woolf's side are well in the mix for the finals after the performance, but will still need plenty to go right given their for and against.
Given where everything sits, the Dolphins likely don't need to win again to make the top eight, but will likely need four from four to amke the top four.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 10th
6. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 6th, 30 points, + 66
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 24: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 25: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Bye
The Knights were supposed to fall apart after Dylan Lucas and Dylan Brown went down with season-ending injuries in the same game.
That has not been the way in the Hunter though, and the club nothced a critical victory in the nation's capital on Sunday afternoon.
That leaves them likely qualified for the top eight, wth 30 points to their name, a solid for and against, a bye to come, and 32 points being marked as our projected figutre to make the finals.
They have winnable games on the run in followed by a bye, and will be as primed as any team in the finals provided they get there.
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Up 1
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 10th
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 7th, 28 points, + 66
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 25: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (home)
The Rabbitohs absolutely needed to take care of business this weekend, and while it wasn't pretty, they ultimately did just that against the Eels on Saturday evening.
They have some tricky games coming up. The Bulldogs, the Warriors on the road, and the Roosters to close.
It's for that reason it's tough to see them getting too many points, but two wins from those four games should be enough to qualify for the finals.
A tricky test against the Bulldogs this weekend and one they desperately would like to win to ease pressure from the rest of their games.
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 2nd
Worst finishing spot: 12th
8. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 8th, 28 points, - 76
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 24: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
The Cowboys certainly aren't dead and buried yet, and their thumping win over the Gold Coast Titans on the weekend will certainly help where they currently stand.
With Tom Dearden likely back a week or two out from the finals, the key for the Cowboys is simply to get there and then see what happens.
As it stands, they sit in eighth spot, but the Bulldogs are snapping at their heels.
The Cowboys though are somewhat blessed by an easy run in. Their record-breaking defeat to the Roosters hasn't totally ended them, and they should be able to build some momentum to the finals, which they will make, albeit from a lower place than we originally suspected.
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Down 1
Best finishing spot: 2nd
Worst finishing spot: 12th
9. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 9th, 26 points, - 46
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 25: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (home)
The Bulldogs almost seemed to be back to their old ways on Friday evening, eventually falling short against the Sydney Roosters.
The top four last year for the blue and white is a far cry, and fast fading from memory, but they aren't out of the mix yet this season.
Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they have a tricky run in, and given they also need some for and against on certain teams around them, the expectation is Canterbury will fall just short.
That said, this week is huge. Beat the Rabbitohs and the flip could script entirely. This is a four-point game in the true sense of the expression.
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 4th
Worst finishing spot: 16th
10. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 10th, 24 points, + 68
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: The Dolphins (home)
Round 25: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (away)
The Sea Eagles have lurched from one disaster to another in recent weeks. It's not the fault of Kieran Foran, as some would so very much want you to believe, but it's clear his troops aren't putting the effort in as they were when he first took over.
Their loss to the Storm in the west on the weekend was another nail in the coffin that is holding their season, but it's also not over yet.
There are winnable games on the run home. The projection is they need to win four from four to make the top eight, while the other version of that could only be three games if results go their way.
Mathematics says they may even be able to make it with two, but they'd need some likely unrealistic results to float around for that to be the case.
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 4th
Worst finishing spot: 16th
11. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 11th, 22 points, - 4
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 24: Bye
Round 25: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (away)
The Storm head into their final bye of the season this weekend and could be officially out of finals contention by the time they finish it.
That's the tough nature of the situation for Craig Bellamy and his chargers, but with three big wins on the other side, and a host of other results going their way, including the Rabbitohs losing three or likely all four of their gamnes, and the Bulldogs also struggling, they could mathematically still make the top eight.
The realistic version of that of course is that it's not going to happen.
Melbourne will miss the finals for the first time (outside of 2010) since Craig Bellamy took over.
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Up 1
Best finishing spot: 7th
Worst finishing spot: 16th
12. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 12th, 22 points, - 65
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 24: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 25: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
The Raiders, taking to their home turf against the Knights and putting realistic finals expectations on the line, served up a performance that wasn't good enough, capped off by a 'brain snap' from Corey Horsburgh which had Ricky Stuart seeing red post-game.
The moment probably ends the Raiders season, although like the Storm, they can still make it on the laws of maths, and probably a whole lot of hope.
We still have the Raiders escaping the bottom four despite the unexpected loss on the weekend, but with a tricky enough run home, they will need to find another win or two from somewhere.
At this stage, we have them winning in Round 25 at home against the Broncos.
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Down 1
Best finishing spot: 7th
Worst finishing spot: 16th
13. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 13th, 20 points, - 183
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 25: The Dolphins (away)
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Under the for and against rule of 40 per weekend, the Eels are now officially out of contention.
They could get to equal with eighth place on 28 points, but would need a 240-point differential turnaround in four weeks which is just not going to happen.
A host of other results would also be needed between them and the eight.
Jason Ryles side have endured a miserable year, and will be sweating on Jarome Luai being he fix next go.
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Up 1
Best finishing spot: 9th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
14. Wests Tigers
Current position: 14th, 20 points, - 211
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 25: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (away)
Another team out of the mix officially, the Tigers had the bye this weekend, but results went against them and with a diabolical for and against, a fork can be stuck in their season.
The Tigers will look to finish with some wins, but have a very tricky final three weeks.
Benji Marshall will have his work cut out for him to keep heads up.
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 9th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
15. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 15th, 18 points, - 144
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 25: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 26: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (home)
The Titans leave home for one final time this weekend, then play their final three games at home.
It's hard to see where they pick a win up given the qualify of opposition, but the Titans have had a knack of scaring teams this year.
They could still play a serious role in the race to the top eight, even though their own is over.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 9th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
16. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 16th, 18 points, - 164
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 25: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Broncos probably - almost certainly - should have won on the weekend against the Dolphins, who shot out to a 24-0 lead.
The way the bye cycles have lined up, the Broncos are now out of finals contention.
The most they can get to is 26 competition pooints, and the top eight is already set at 30.
They are done, but will look to restore something in the pride department over the closing weeks. It has been a tough year for the defending premiers.
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Down 1
Best finishing spot: 9th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
17. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 17th, 12 points, - 265
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 24: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 25: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (home)
The Dragons stunned the Sharks on Sunday afternoon to keep their narrow chances of avoiding the wooden spoon alive.
They will need a team above them on 18 points though, or the Tigers, to lose all of thheir games.
The Dragons are inside the for and against calculation to make it possible, but any slip up confirms their status at the bottom.
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 13th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
