Every year, NRL teams enter the competition with varying levels of expectations.
Some are aiming for the premiership, some are trying to sneak back into finals footy, others are trying to stop a slide, and some just want to steer clear of the bottom after a handful of disastrous campaigns.
The 2025 campaign saw new premiers crowned, finally dethroning the Penrith Panthers, while some clubs were ahead of expectations, led by the Canterbury Bulldogs and Canberra Raiders, and others fell well short of where they should have been, led by the North Queensland Cowboys and South Sydney Rabbitohs.
With off-season moves done, Zero Tackle have unpacked the realistic expectations for every NRL team heading into 2026, picking the pass mark for each and every team.
Multiple teams share the same pass marks throughout, but that ultimately means some teams are going to be left unhappy.
Canberra Raiders
Preliminary final
The Raiders were maybe 2025s biggest surprise packet.
A team widely picked to finish well outside the finals, the Green Machine put a splendid season together to take out the minor premiership.
They then crashed and burned to go out in straight sets during the finals, but it was a season which was well above expectation for the Raiders.
They have now created new expectations though, and should feature in the finals once again, before making a push beyond the first two weeks of the knockouts.
The issue for Ricky Stuart's side of course is the departure of star halfback Jamal Fogarty. They have struggled to perform without him in recent seasons, and if that trend continues into 2026, then even the finals could be a stretch.
I think “Push for the Top Four” is ambitious for the Dolphins.
If I were one of their management or their fans, I would think that just making the top eight and playing finals would be a success, this season.