The 2025 NRL season is heading into its final stretch, and for some coaches, the pressure has reached boiling point.
Finals hopes are fading, club boards are restless, and fan patience is wearing thin. With speculation swirling and a handful of jobs expected to be vacant by year's end, quite a few coaches are feeling the heat.
Others, however, are riding high, knowing they'll be NRL coaches for the foreseeable future.
As the countdown to the off-season begins, here's a look at which coaches are safe in their current roles, and who might not survive to see Round 1 in 2026.
4. On the brink of the axe
The question of “if” these coaches will be sacked has shifted to “when.” The losses have piled up, the fans have turned on them, and their respective club boards look set to look in another direction for 2026.
Todd Payten
Riding off the coattails of a terrific 2022 season, Todd Payten has unfortunately overstayed his welcome with the North Queensland Cowboys.
Despite having a stack of Origin players amongst his ranks, he has somehow plummeted to the bottom four.
The Cowboys have the worst defence in 2025 by far, relying on individual attacking prowess for any sort of success.
The players are simply not playing for him anymore, which is convenient, since they will probably be playing for someone else in 2026.
Adam O'Brien
Adam O'Brien looks to be as good as gone as the Newcastle Knights coach after the 2025 season.
His track record with the club is not terrible by any stretch, however he seems to have milked as much out of this Knights squad as possible, with nothing left to work with.
Aside from an impressive second half of the 2023 season, the Knights have never looked like a premiership threat undertaking O'Brien, and with a superstar like Kalyn Ponga only contracted for two more years, the club will need to find some success fast.
This is what will unfortunately see O'Brien out of a job in 2026, ending an average tenure in the Hunter.
