The Parramatta Eels have been comfortably the NRL's worst defensive outfit over the opening four rounds of the competition, and the question of why is becoming a clear one to answer.
It's not even close when you run the numbers.
In four rounds, the Eels have conceded scores of 52, 32, 20 and 48 for a grand total of 152 points.
It has to be noted that the three highest scores there were against the Melbourne Storm, defending premiers the Brisbane Broncos and the outrageously hot Penrith Panthers.
But the Eels came into 2026 expecting a full blown turnaround, and if you asked anyone associated with the club, the noise was that as long as Mitchell Moses stayed fit, they would be at worst in contention to play finals footy.
That makes the quality of opposition over the first round rounds a bit of a mute point, and while the number might come down, and yes, they looked better in defence during Round 3 against the St George Illawarra Dragons, to compete at the pointy end of affairs, you have to beat the best.
Parramatta's attack certainly hasn't been the problem. They didn't get into the games against Penrith or Melbourne, but against Brisbane and the Dragons, their two wins, they looked more than solid with Mitchell Moses and Jonah Pezet controlling things out of the halves.
There were understandably questions in the pre-season about that combination, but right now, you couldn't give it anything less than a tick, even if not with totally flying colours.
The issue though is that, in defence, the the next worst team are the Sydney Roosters, who have conceded a 36 points less - that's nine points per game.
Something is not clicking at the blue and gold in defence, and it's not a lack of talent. Their middle isn't the best in the competition, but it's certainly not the worst.
It doesn't look overly structural on the goal line either - they are giving up a mountain of tries from long distance.
What has become clear is that their first contact and line speed in defence is absolutely abysmal.
The data is early, but the trend is horrifying for Eels fans. At this early point in the season, they are giving up two metres per set more than any other team, and, with the exception of the North Queensland Cowboys, about a line break and a half more per game.
| Team | Set distance conceded | Line breaks conceded |
| Panthers | 36.54 | 2.75 |
| Tigers | 37.17 | 3.67 |
| Cowboys | 38.12 | 6.50 |
| Raiders | 38.64 | 4.00 |
| Warriors | 38.69 | 5.00 |
| Bulldogs | 39.39 | 3.00 |
| Storm | 39.40 | 5.00 |
| Sharks | 39.70 | 5.50 |
| Sea Eagles | 39.71 | 5.00 |
| Titans | 39.85 | 3.75 |
| Dolphins | 41.54 | 4.75 |
| Knights | 41.56 | 5.00 |
| Broncos | 41.57 | 3.50 |
| Roosters | 41.77 | 5.25 |
| Rabbitohs | 42.42 | 4.00 |
| Dragons | 43.01 | 5.25 |
| Eels | 44.99 | 6.75 |
That ultimately creates problems that are two fold.
You're constantly on the back foot and scrambling in defence, and understandably, bringing it out of your own end far more often than you'd like, which puts serious fatigue into an already fast game, while forcing your forwards to do a stack of extra work just to get back behind the ball, let alone make a difference.
Compare that to Penrith, who concede the least metres per set, are up in your face, and then back it up with some of the game's best ball-runners in the back five to get sets going.
Yeah, you can understand pretty quickly why the Panthers put such a score on Parramatta during Saturday's game, played at CommBank Stadium.
If you wanted another indicator of how often Parramatta are on the back foot, just go and have a look at the tries they have let in this year, and for how many now injured fullback Isaiah Iongi has been out of position.
That's not because he is a bad defensive fullback.
It's because he has become the last line of defence far too often and he simply can't do it all, as talented as he is.
The thing is Parramatta's scramble defence is actually not that bad. The pub test against Penrith revealed that - they probably would have let in even more points had they not put up a really good display of scramble.
But scramble isn't something you can maintain as your first and only defensive method, and neither is scoring 40 points per game like they did against the Broncos.
Parramatta must address their line speed and forward energy in a hurry, or the season is going to start rapidly disappearing.
They clash with the Wests Tigers, who have been red-hot to open the year particularly in attack on Easter Monday, and if the blue and gold give their dangerous weapons space and time to run the ball, while letting the forward pack dominate, we are going to see the same thing over and over again.
Last year, it was the Dragons who had, by eye test or other metrics, the game's slowest line speed and worst first contact defence, and they finished in the bottom four for points let in, and, unsurprisingly, third last on the table.
The Dragons have actually got better in that area this year, but worse in others.
The bottom line right now for the Eels is there is no dispute. They sit last in two key defensive metrics, and have been blown off the park by two teams who could well be in contention for the premiership.
Parramatta, for all their desire to be there, won't be close unless they can fix this horror truth of their first four rounds.
