The NRL run home has thrown up some big surprises over the course of Round 21, with top four candidates the Brisbane Broncos and New Zealand Warriors both falling short against teams at the wrong end of the ladder.
It has thrown the top-four race into a far tighter struggle than one might have predicted, with the Penrith Panthers knocking on the door.
The race for the wooden spoon has also twisted, with the Gold Coast Titans potentially needing just one or two more wins to avoid the dreaded prize at the bottom of the table.
For the time being, we are going to hold firm on all our tips to the end of the season, although there was a temptation to flip a handful of games given a mixed formline for a number of teams.
Each week on Zero Tackle between now and the end of the regular season, we will tip the week ahead, take stock of what's left, run through every club's trip to the finish line, and predict the final ladder.
Here are the tips for Round 22.
Parramatta Eels lose to Melbourne Storm
New Zealand Warriors defeat The Dolphins
Brisbane Broncos defeat South Sydney Rabbitohs
Gold Coast Titans lose to Penrith Panthers
St George Illawarra Dragons lose to Canberra Raiders
Manly Sea Eagles lose to Sydney Roosters
Wests Tigers lose to Canterbury Bulldogs
Cronulla Sharks defeat North Queensland Cowboys
Here is what the run home looks for each team.
1. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 1st, 36 points, + 158
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 22: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Wollongong)
Round 23: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 24: Bye
Round 25: Penrith Panthers (away - Mudgee)
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (away)
Another week, another win for the Raiders, this time over the hapless Newcastle Knights.
They continue to hold the inside running for the minor premiership, and while it's not a guarantee, as long as they don't slip up in any of the games they are expected to win, all bar the clashes with Penrith and the Dolphins - it's hard to see them dropping.
They play the Dragons this week, then have a key game against Manly before their final bye of the season. Should be six more points without too much stress.
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Nil
2. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 2nd, 34 points, + 136
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 22: Wests Tigers (away - Campbelltown)
Round 23: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 24: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 25: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (home)
When we kicked this series off at the eight weeks to go mark, we had the Bulldogs finishing equal on points with the Storm.
They have since taken care of their own business with wins against the Dragons and Sea Eagles, while the Storm dropped their Round 20 game against the Sea Eagles.
The Bulldogs need to keep winning, though, and we have them doing just that in the coming weeks, but it'll likely be Round 24 through to Round 26 that decides whether they book a home qualifying final.
Should have no problem disposing of the Tigers this weekend.
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Nil
3. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 3rd, 32 points, + 222
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 22: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 23: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 24: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 25: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (away)
The Storm, despite their Round 20 loss to the Sea Eagles, are still in the mix for a top two spot, but will likely now need to win one of the games we have earmarked for a loss - being Round 24 against Penrith or Round 27 against Brisbane.
Their for and against is good enough that all they need to do is draw level with the Bulldogs to gain a home qualifying final.
A win against the Eels this week needs to be taken care of first though.
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Nil
4. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 4th, 30 points, + 28
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 22: The Dolphins (home)
Round 23: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 24: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 25: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
The Warriors' loss to the Gold Coast on the weekend not only came as a surprise, but could prove disastrous for the Auckland-based outfit.
For the time being, we still have them finishing fourth, but just a point ahead of Penrith. A slip-up in any of the games we have them down to win - Round 22, Round 24, Round 25 and Round 26 - could mean they face an elimination final in Week 1 of the finals rather than earning the second chance.
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Nil, but under heavy pressure
5. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 5th, 27 points, + 79
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 22: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 23: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 24: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 25: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Wollongong)
The Panthers are coming. That much is clear.
This is a team who have found their mojo at the right time of the year, and with a mixed run home, will either fully earn a top four spot, or miss out by not beating the best.
The Warriors could yet implode ahead of them, and given we now have their predicted finish - with five wins from seven - being just a point behind the Warriors, a second chance is a real possibility.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Nil
6. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 6th, 26 points, + 78
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 22: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 23: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 24: The Dolphins (home)
Round 25: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
The Broncos' shock loss to the Parramatta Eels over the weekend will leave Michael Maguire's side chasing their tail.
It all but explodes their hopes of finishing in the top four, and, given the other runs home around the competition, could mean they now travel in Week 1 of the finals.
They must bounce back against South Sydney this week.
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Down one spot
7. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 7th, 26 points, + 23
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 22: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 23: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Kogarah)
Round 24: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Sharks took care of business on Saturday against the South Sydney Rabbitohs, although the performance made us wonder if we should be tipping them for nearly as many wins as we are over the final six weeks.
That said, their run home is one of the easiest in the NRL, and they have a bye to go, so it's hard to see them not leapfrogging the Broncos on the run in.
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Up one spot
8. The Dolphins
Current position: 8th, 24 points, + 169
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 22: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 23: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 24: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 25: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
A bye during Round 21 puts the Dolphins provisionally into the top eight, but they have a tricky run home and could find themselves struggling to stay there.
This week against the suddenly struggling Warriors is a great opportunity to force two points where it's not predicted, but they will likely need more than that over the final five rounds to qualify for their maiden finals appearance.
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Nil
9. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 9th, 24 points, + 22
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 22: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 23: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 24: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 25: The Dolphins (home)
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (home)
We never expected the Sea Eagles to beat the Bulldogs last weekend, but we were expecting a far better account of themselves than the one they gave.
It doesn't change their position on the ladder, but it does add to the importance of the next fortnight as they play the Roosters and Raiders.
Find a way to win even one of those games and suddenly, they are a real show at the top eight again.
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Nil
10. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 10th, 22 points, + 4
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 22: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 23: The Dolphins (away)
Round 24: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 25: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
The Roosters came up short against the Storm on Thursday, but that wasn't an enormous surprise.
They do need to take care of business against the Sea Eagles this week, though, in what is shaping up as one of the most important games of the remaining six weeks.
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Nil
11. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 11th, 19 points, - 157
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 22: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 23: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 24: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 25: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 27: Bye
The win for the Cowboys over the Dragons was expected, and keeps them in with an outside chance of playing finals footy, although they'd likely need to win all five of their remaining games to be a chance.
That starts with the Sharks this week on the road - one we can't see them winning.
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Nil
12. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 12th, 18 points, - 64
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 22: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 23: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 24: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (home)
The Dragons found a way to lose again over the weekend, defending poorly against the Cowboys.
While it wasn't a game we had them pegged to win, a win for the Eels over the Broncos drops them another spot, while the Titans win also brings them closer to a possible first wooden spoon for the joint-venture.
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Down one spot
13. Wests Tigers
Current position: 13th, 18 points, - 135
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 22: Canterbury Bulldogs (home - CommBank Stadium)
Round 23: Bye
Round 24: Manly Sea Eagles (home - Allianz Stadium)
Round 25: North Queensland Cowboys (home - Leichhardt)
Round 26: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
The Tigers loss to the Panthers drops them a spot on the live ladder, but given other results directly around them were just as expected, they are still holding onto a predicted spot just outside the bottom four for the time being.
That could come down to games against the Cowboys in Round 25, and the Titans in Round 27 though.
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Nil
14. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 14th, 18 points, - 147
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 22: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 23: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 24: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 25: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Newcastle Knights (home)
This time last week, the Eels sat 16th, but a win over the Broncos has given them a two-spot bump on the live ladder, and a potential path out of the bottom four at the end of the campaign.
Final hopes may be gone, but the win over Brisbane could put them in a position to claim some victories over the back half of the season.
We reckon the win over Brisbane could see them rise as many as three places on the predicted table.
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Up one spot from 14th.
15. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 15th, 16 points, - 116
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 22: Bye
Round 23: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 24: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 25: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (away)
The Knights claim a critical two poins from the bye this weekend before embarking on a terribly tough run to the finish line.
We can't see them breaking away from the bottom two, but the two points this weekend may be enough to avoid last spot.
That said, they will be keeping a keen eye on teams around them, particularly the Titans and Rabbitohs while pushing for an unlikely victory themselves.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
16. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 16th, 16 points, - 149
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 22: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 23: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 24: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 25: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 26: The Dolphins (away)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
The Titans picked up a shock win over the Warriors on the weekend, and it will give the club some level of hope that they might be able to avoid the wooden spoon.
We can't see them doing so, but the Round 23 game against South Sydney is now critical in that battle.
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
17. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 17th, 16 points, - 151
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 22: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 23: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 24: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 25: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (away)
The Rabbitohs may well be lucky they have a bye on the run-in to save a possible wooden spoon.
The game against the Titans will also be critical. We still have them winning that for now, but injuries are hurting.
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Up one spot
Predicted final ladder
1. Canberra Raiders - 44 points
2. Canterbury Bulldogs - 42 points
3. Melbourne Storm - 40 points
4. New Zealand Warriors - 38 points
5. Penrith Panthers - 37 points
6. Cronulla Sharks - 36 points
7. Brisbane Broncos - 34 points
8. Sydney Roosters - 32 points
9. Manly Sea Eagles - 30 points
10. The Dolphins - 28 points
11. North Queensland Cowboys - 25 points
12. Wests Tigers - 24 points
13. Parramatta Eels - 24 points
14. St George Illawarra Dragons - 22 points
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs - 20 points
16. Newcastle Knights - 18 points
17. Gold Coast Titans - 16 points
Prediction Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1:Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors at GIO Stadium
Qualifying final 2: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Melbourne Storm at Accor Stadium
Elimination final 1: Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters at CommBank Stadium
Elimination final 2: Cronulla Sharks vs Brisbane Broncos at Shark Park
