The final round of the NRL season is here, with plenty still to play for across the course of the weekend in relation to the top four and top eight.
The race for the final spot in the knockout rounds has the potential to go down to the final day of the season if the Sydney Roosters do not defeat the South Sydney Rabbitohs on Friday evening.
Elsewhere, the race for fourth spot is still up for grabs, with the Brisbane Broncos having the best for and against of three teams locked on 34 points, but having to play a fuming Melbourne Storm this weekend.
Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for every team heading into the final weekend of the season, along with our predictions for how we see things unfolding.
1. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 1st, 44 points, + 186
Remaining game: vs The Dolphins (away), Sunday, 2pm
The Raiders have locked up the minor premiership with their win over the Wests Tigers on the weekend, and other results going their way.
It means they will rest players for their trip to Queensland and instead turn attention towards likely opening the finals series the following Friday.
The green machine's resting players has the potential to change the top eight, but more on that later.
Likely finish: 1st
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 1st
2. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 2nd, 40 points, + 228
Remaining game: vs Brisbane Broncos (away), Thursday, 7:50pm
The Storm were left seething after resting players but being smacked by the Roosters in Craig Bellamy's 600th game last weekend.
They have promised to be back at full strength for this weekend's game against the Broncos as they look to get back on the same page before the finals.
The only way they don't finish in second is if they lose, the Bulldogs win against the Sharks, and there is a 90-point for and against turnaround.
In short, they will be hosting the second qualifying final.
Likely finish: 2nd
Best-case scenario: 2nd
Worst-case scenario: 3rd
3. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 3rd, 38 points, + 138
Remaining game: vs Cronulla Sharks (home), Saturday, 7:35pm
The Bulldogs have indicated they won't rest players this week, even though they could.
Unless they have the aforementioned for and against shift with the Storm, they are locked into third with a four-point gap ahead of the teams feuding for fourth spot behind them.
Likely finish: 3rd
Best-case scenario: 2nd
Worst-case scenario: 3rd
4. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 4th, 34 points, + 156
Remaining game: vs Melbourne Storm (home), Thursday, 7:50pm
A Broncos win will just about lock them into fourth spot, unless the Sharks win by at least 65 more points than they do against the Bulldogs, or the Warriors by at least 134 more points.
In short, neither of those things are going to happen.
If the Broncos lose, they will be hoping the Sharks and Warriors both lose to cling onto fourth spot, with the for and against still pending, but it is still unlikely to be turned around.
We have all three of these sides losing.
Likely finish: 4th
Best-case scenario: 4th
Worst-case scenario: 6th
5. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 5th, 34 points, + 91
Remaining game: vs Canterbury Bulldogs (away), Saturday, 7:35pm
The Sharks managed to pick up two critical competition points against the Knights on Sunday, which keeps their drive for a top-four spot alive.
They realistically need the Broncos to lose if they are going to get there, though, given the 65-point for and against difference between the two clubs.
Cronulla can fall to sixth with a loss if the Warriors win, but they are locked into a home elimination final one way or another.
Likely finish: 5th
Best-case scenario: 4th
Worst-case scenario: 6th
6. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 6th, 34 points, + 22
Remaining game: vs Manly Sea Eagles (away), Friday, 6pm
The Warriors are still able to finish fourth, but the loss to the Eels has significantly hurt them.
They would, given for and against, likely need the Sharks and Broncos to both lose if they are to leapfrog ahead.
A desperate Sea Eagles side on the road won't make life easy either.
Like the Sharks, they are locked into a home elimination final in the worst-case scenario.
Likely finish: 6th
Best-case scenario: 4th
Worst-case scenario: 6th
7. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 7th, 33 points, + 87
Remaining game: vs St George Illawarra Dragons (away), Saturday, 3pm
The Panthers head to Wollongong to play for the Dragons for the first time in 2025 - work that one out - to close their campaign.
The men from the foot of the mountains gave up a chance at the top four by resting the entire side this week, and all that remains to be seen is whether they finish seventh or eighth, and as a result, where they'll be travelling for an elimination final in the first week of the knockout rounds.
Likely finish: 7th
Best-case scenario: 7th
Worst-case scenario: 8th
8. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 8th, 30 points, + 102
Remaining game: vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (home), Friday, 8pm
It doesn't get any bigger than this.
If the Roosters beat their old rivals, they are through to the finals.
If they lose, they'll be sweating on the Dolphins not winning on Sunday afternoon, the final day of the season, with the Raiders set to rest plenty for that game.
The tri-colours' fate is in their own hands, but this is going to be must-watch rugby league.
Likely finish: 8th
Best-case scenario: 7th
Worst-case scenario: 8th
9. The Dolphins
Current position: 9th, 28 points, + 87
Remaining game: vs Canberra Raiders (home), Sunday, 2pm
The Dolphins return to Redcliffe for the second time this season with a chance to play finals footy for the first time, hinging on the Roosters slipping up earlier in the weekend.
If they do that, then the Dolphins winning and turning the for and against around by a measly 15 points will be enough for them to make the top eight.
It could be a huge afternoon.
Likely finish: 9th
Best-case scenario: 8th
Worst-case scenario: 10th
10. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 10th, 28 points, + 20
Remaining game: vs New Zealand Warriors (home), Friday, 6pm
The Sea Eagles took care of business over the weekend against the Dragons, but maybe not by the margin they would have hoped for.
Their earlier slip-ups mean they need results to go their way in a big way - the Roosters and Dolphins would both need to lose by big margins, while the Sea Eagles would have to win big.
The current for and against turnaround is 67 to the Dolphins, and 82 to the Roosters. Not impossible, but not overly likely either.
Given they play first out of the three clubs, all they can do is win by a big margin and put the other sides in the mix for eighth spot under pressure.
Likely finish: 10th
Best-case scenario: 8th
Worst-case scenario: 10th
11. Wests Tigers
Current position: 11th, 24 points, - 127
Remaining game: vs Gold Coast Titans (away), Saturday, 5:30pm
The Tigers are the first team on the ladder out of the mix for finals, which is a step up from where they have been in previous years and just about represents a successful season.
They should win to close the year against the Titans as well, allowing them to confirm an 11th-place finish.
A loss could yet see them drop as far as 15th with the Eels, Rabbitohs, Cowboys (who have a bye) and Dragons all in striking distance.
Likely finish: 11th
Best-case scenario: 11th
Worst-case scenario: 15th
12. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 12th, 24 points, - 132
Remaining game: vs Newcastle Knights (home), Sunday, 4:05pm
Another team that should close the year with a win, although it's hard to call the Eels' campaign anything approaching a success.
A win could see them move as high as 11th if the Tigers lose, while a loss, for the same reasons as the Tigers, could see them dip as far as 15th.
Likely finish: 12th
Best-case scenario: 11th
Worst-case scenario: 15th
13. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 13th, 24 points, - 151
Remaining game: vs Sydney Roosters (away), Friday, 8:05pm
The Rabbitohs sitting 13th is a minor miracle, really, when you consider the enormous injury toll they have had to plug through this year.
They will be out to ruin the Roosters' finals hopes on Friday. It's as simple as that.
A win, pending results for the Eels and Tigers, could see them up to 11th, while a loss could see them down to 15th.
Likely finish: 14th
Best-case scenario: 11th
Worst-case scenario: 15th
14. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 14th, 23 points, - 146
Remaining game: vs Bye
The Cowboys have been one of the season's great disappointments, and Todd Payten must be hanging on by a thread.
A bye to close the season means they could still jump to 11th, and can't go any lower than they currently are. Any of the Rabbitohs, Eels or Tigers losing means they will go ahead.
Likely finish: 13th
Best-case scenario: 11th
Worst-case scenario: 14th
15. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 15th, 22 points, - 110
Remaining game: vs Penrith Panthers (home), Saturday, 3pm
The Dragons have had a very ordinary finish to the year and will be looking to restore some pride against Penrith on the weekend.
They are likely to finish in the bottom four either way, given that the Tigers and Eels should win, and the Cowboys have a bye, but could still technically jump up to 12th on the table.
Likely finish: 15th
Best-case scenario: 12th
Worst-case scenario: 15th
16. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 16th, 18 points, - 244
Remaining game: vs Parramatta Eels (away), Sunday, 4:05pm
The Knights will play the final game of the regular season against the Eels and try to send Adam O'Brien out a winner.
Not much more to it than that, although with a loss and a win for the Gold Coast, they could still pick up the wooden spoon. They currently have a worse for and against than the side below them.
Likely finish: 16th
Best-case scenario: 16th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
17. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 17th, 16 points, - 207
Remaining game: vs Wests Tigers (home), Saturday, 5:30pm
The Titans, with a win, could avoid the wooden spoon and send Des Hasler out a winner, although they'd be relying on the Knights losing to finish last.
Hard to see them winning, though.
Likely finish: 17th
Best-case scenario: 16th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
Predicted final ladder
1. Canberra Raiders - 44 points
2. Melbourne Storm - 42 points
3. Canterbury Bulldogs - 40 points
4. Brisbane Broncos - 34 points
5. Cronulla Sharks - 34 points
6. New Zealand Warriors - 34 points
7. Penrith Panthers - 33 points
8. Sydney Roosters - 32 points
9. The Dolphins - 30 points
10. Manly Sea Eagles - 30 points
11. Wests Tigers - 26 points
12. Parramatta Eels - 26 points
13. North Queensland Cowboys - 25 points
14. South Sydney Rabbitohs - 24 points
15. St George Illawarra Dragons - 22 points
16. Newcastle Knights - 18 points
17. Gold Coast Titans - 16 points
Predicted Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1:Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos at GIO Stadium
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs at AAMI Park
Elimination final 1: Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters at Sharks Stadium
Elimination final 2: New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers at Mt Smart Stadium
