A leading sports media rights expert says the federal government's sweeping gambling advertising crackdown has torpedoed any realistic prospect of a record-breaking broadcast deal for the NRL, even as the league's chief insists the sky has never been bluer.
Last Thursday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese unveiled a sweeping package of reforms targeting betting agencies, capping TV advertisements at three per hour, restricting the spruiking of odds during live commentary, and banning gambling promotions from stadiums and jerseys alike.
Existing TV code of practice rules already prohibit gambling advertising during live sports between 5am and 8:30pm.
None of it appears to have dampened the enthusiasm of Australian Rugby League Commission chairman Peter V'landys, who was again flogging the prospect of a $4 billion, five-year deal over the weekend.
The Australian reported V'landys "leaked" figures, claiming a record 25 million viewers have tuned in across Nine and Foxtel through the opening four rounds of the 2026 season, and V'landys declared the next broadcast agreement, covering the 2028 season onwards, would be wrapped up "in the next two to three months."
Lachlan Gepp sees things differently. A partner at law firm Hamilton Locke and a veteran of major media rights negotiations spanning professional sports, racing bodies, wagering companies and TV networks, Gepp believes the NRL has "next to no chance" of eclipsing the AFL's landmark $3.5 billion, seven-year deal struck with Seven and Foxtel.
"The next [NRL] broadcasting deal was already facing stiff challenges due to a soft television advertising market and lack of genuine competitive tension in the buyer pool," he told Mumbrella.
"There'll be less ad spots for the broadcasters to sell, meaning there'll be less advertising revenue coming into the broadcasters. Any dollar that is lost from gambling advertising revenue to the broadcasters will ultimately be worn by the codes, because their media rights deals will be worth less.
"I can't see the NRL getting close to the current AFL broadcast deal in terms of annual value.”
The landscape today looks considerably less hospitable with tighter ad budgets, a shrinking pool of gambling dollars and mounting uncertainty around exactly when and how the new restrictions will bite.
Gepp floated the possibility that the NRL executives "might even be considering a short-term rollover with existing partners" before returning to the table in a few years "when macroeconomic conditions have stabilised or improved".
Whatever path they choose, V'landys will feel the heat to get something done before year's end.
