Every year, NRL teams enter the competition with varying levels of expectations.
Some are aiming for the premiership, some are trying to sneak back into finals footy, others are trying to stop a slide, and some just want to steer clear of the bottom after a handful of disastrous campaigns.
The 2025 campaign saw new premiers crowned, finally dethroning the Penrith Panthers, while some clubs were ahead of expectations, led by the Canterbury Bulldogs and Canberra Raiders, and others fell well short of where they should have been, led by the North Queensland Cowboys and South Sydney Rabbitohs.
With off-season moves done, Zero Tackle have unpacked the realistic expectations for every NRL team heading into 2026, picking the pass mark for each and every team.
Multiple teams share the same pass marks throughout, but that ultimately means some teams are going to be left unhappy.
Newcastle Knights
Avoid bottom four
The Knights are a very difficult team to get a read on heading into 2026.
Adam O'Brien's tenure finished with what can only be described as a horrific season. He simply had to be axed.
In his place is Justin Holbrook. On paper, the Knights after far better than their lowly 2025 position, and that should only improve with Dylan Brown's arrival.
The forward pack are the question, and it's that reason it's hard to see them pushing for the top eight, but no teams should be comfortable being in the bottom four.
Improvement of any description would be enough for the Knights to feel they may finally be heading in the right direction.
I think “Push for the Top Four” is ambitious for the Dolphins.
If I were one of their management or their fans, I would think that just making the top eight and playing finals would be a success, this season.