Every year, NRL teams enter the competition with varying levels of expectations.
Some are aiming for the premiership, some are trying to sneak back into finals footy, others are trying to stop a slide, and some just want to steer clear of the bottom after a handful of disastrous campaigns.
The 2025 campaign saw new premiers crowned, finally dethroning the Penrith Panthers, while some clubs were ahead of expectations, led by the Canterbury Bulldogs and Canberra Raiders, and others fell well short of where they should have been, led by the North Queensland Cowboys and South Sydney Rabbitohs.
With off-season moves done, Zero Tackle have unpacked the realistic expectations for every NRL team heading into 2026, picking the pass mark for each and every team.
Multiple teams share the same pass marks throughout, but that ultimately means some teams are going to be left unhappy.
Manly Sea Eagles
Top eight
The Sea Eagles are one of the more intriguing teams heading into the 2026 campaign.
Anthony Seibold is one of the likely two most under pressure coaches in the competition after missing the finals in 2025.
It doesn't get much more straightforward than that. Manly have, for the most part, underperformed during Seibold's time at the club.
It really does feel like it's top eight or bust this year, even with the departure of Daly Cherry-Evans.
Replacing him with Jamal Fogarty is a sideways move at worst, and Manly should play finals footy.
I think “Push for the Top Four” is ambitious for the Dolphins.
If I were one of their management or their fans, I would think that just making the top eight and playing finals would be a success, this season.