The NRL has a trend when it comes to the top eight each season.

For the last four seasons, three teams in, and three teams out has been the way of the rugby league world.

Starting with the 2022 season, there have been three new clubs into the eight, and three from the previous season missing out.

2022
In: North Queensland Cowboys, Canberra Raiders, Cronulla Sharks
Out: Gold Coast Titans, Manly Sea Eagles, Newcastle Knights

2023
In: Brisbane Broncos, Newcastle Knights, New Zealand Warriors
Out: South Sydney Rabbitohs, Parramatta Eels, North Queensland Cowboys

2024
In: Canterbury Bulldogs, North Queensland Cowboys, Manly Sea Eagles
Out: Brisbane Broncos, Canberra Raiders, New Zealand Warriors

2025
In: Brisbane Broncos, Canberra Raiders, New Zealand Warriors
Out: North Queensland Cowboys, Newcastle Knights, Manly Sea Eagles

That then begs the question.

Which teams will move into the eight from outside, and which will fall from inside to outside in 2026.

Here are the picks.

Top eight inclusion 3: Parramatta Eels

While the first two clubs you'd assume most rugby league fans would be confident of making a climb, the Eels are more of our wildcard pick for promotion into the top eight heading into the new season.

The biggest fact of life for the blue and gold is that they are too heavily reliant on Mitchell Moses.

It's hard to say that is a good thing at any club, but certainly, he has proven the goods, with Parramatta having a far stronger strike rate with Moses than without him in recent years, but even more so in 2025.

Jason Ryles' dramatic rebuild of the club is showing no signs of slowing down either around Moses, and the Eels, roster-wise, should be in a far better position now than they were 12 months ago.

Jonah Pezet has also been added from the Melbourne Storm to add to their halfback depth, although he will take over Dylan Brown's spot at number six to start with, while the signing of Jack de Belin adds some extra mettle and strength, not to mention experience, to their middle third engine room which is already strong enough, particularly if Junior Paulo recaptures his 2025 form.

2 COMMENTS

  1. As they are forced to say in the financial services adverts: “Past performance is not an indicator of future performance”.

    It’s a rubbish statement because if you believe it, then on what basis would you transfer your savings from one crowd to another ?

    I think something holds similar, here.

    It’s true that in recent years some clubs have risen into the eight, and some have fallen out of the eight; and that the figures show three up and three out. But there is no reason to assume that there is some immutable law of nature, or that the footies gods have conspired to produce this outcome.

    I suspect that this year we will see:
    – seven of 2025’s eight filling the top eight spots in September.
    – Parra going nowhere now that Lomax has gone
    – Souths in and Auckland out.
    – Canberra hang on in the eight by the skin of their teeth !