Yesterday I posed the question which club has had the most disappointing NRL season?. It was negative.
Today we look at the positive side of the argument and ask, which team has exceeded expectation the most?
Truthfully the top eight isn't too far from what I predicted, but the order is all over the place.
Some sides are sitting way higher than expected, with one side sitting on the cusp of a top-four finish I simply did not see coming. Judging on pre-season odds, neither did most punters.
Below are the four sides I believe are going to finish higher than expected. Four teams who have overachieved if you will.
Let us know below who you believe has most exceeded expectations.
Cronulla Sharks
Ahh, the good old Sharks. The single most difficult team to predict each and every year despite their incredible consistency of finals appearances.
Some, myself included, had the Sharks between eighth and tenth this season, but the overwhelming majority of experts and fans had the Sharks struggling to avoid a wooden spoon battle.
An aging and overpaid roster with two injury-prone halves on monster money and of course Chad Townsend. A still relative rookie fullback, a dire game-plan and multiple off-field distractions.
The John Morris saga started well before kick-off and dragged on for far too long.
This was a gap year for the Sharks. Ride out four or five horrible contracts, cop whatever happened and limit the damage. Not to mention no genuine home ground either.
Instead, the Sharks are one win away from a ninth finals appearance in 10 seasons. They've moved on all but one of their big money contracts and have refreshed their roster with youngsters and marquee signings.
The Sharks right now are in an exponentially better position than they were in the pre-season.
Not many saw them likely to play finals footy with two weeks to play. As a rusted-on Sharks fan I can't even believe it.
Sydney Roosters
In terms of pre-season expectations, the Roosters are right where they were expected to be. Likely top-four finishers and an outside title chance.
That said, if you'd said then that Luke Keary would do an ACL early on, while names like Boyd Cordner, Jake Friend and Brett Morris would retire, there's no chance you'd have them comfortably bound for finals footy.
Two rookie halves, a fifth string winger, a makeshift centre, a forward rotation consisting of one injury after another.
In terms of their current situation, the Roosters are the obvious overachievers. They're running on James Tedesco fumes, a superstar in the making in Sam Walker and a forward pack who refuse to age.
I can't see many votes, or sympathy, for the tri-colours here, as no matter the injury crisis or suspension list they're expected to finish top-four. It's just what we've come to expect.
Again though, considering everything that has happened, I can't believe the Roosters are still in the title race. They have absolutely no right to be.
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Manly Sea Eagles
In the pre-season, the Sea Eagles were $20+ to win the NRL title. In comparison, the Titans were $15. Canberra were $11.
The Sea Eagles were seen as a three-man side. Two Turbos and a Cherry-Evans. Makeshift centres, two wingers who were let walk away from the Dragons.
No hooker options at all. A 30-year-old Kieran Foran on one leg.
For the opening month, those of us who doubted Manly were proven oh so right. Four straight losses including three thumpings and a big loss to the Dragons.
Yet now, here they sit on the cusp of a top-four finish and are largely viewed as one of two sides who can push the Storm, let alone beat them.
They have the form player of the competition right now in Tom Trbojevic. The same player who was injured pre-season either in a Manly corso run or a shower injury, depending which story you believe to be true.
No one, not even the most rusted on of Manly fans saw them as genuine title threats with two weeks to go.
Melbourne Storm
I can hear people cracking their fingers at a chance to attack this one in the comments but cast your mind back to the pre-season. This was the year the Storm would fall.
No Cameron Smith, a largely untested hooker replacing him fresh off a loan spell with the Tigers. No more Suliasi Vunivalu to score 20 tries either.
Yet here we sit, the Storm one win away from yet another minor premiership and one of the most dominant seasons in memory.
The haven't lost since March 25th, a two-point loss on the bell, to Penrith. Away from home. Prior to that, they lost the week prior to the Eels.
They play Parramatta this weekend for a shot at 20 wins straight.
They've scored a record 777 points, conceding only 264, with a differential of +499. If I were a betting man I'd suggest it goes well over 500 after the Eels game.
Even if you didn't think the Storm would yet again dominate the competition, did anyone see a Cam Smith-less side sitting in the record-breaking spot they are right now?
Verdict
Manly. Manly by an absolute mile!
The Sharks have overachieved and by all rights shouldn't be a win away from finals footy. The Roosters have played well beyond their injury crisis but have rep quality backups. The Storm are always good.
Manly are going to finish top four if results go the way I see them over the next two weeks.
I had them 12th in my pre-season prediction. The punting experts had $5 to $8 further out in premiership betting than the Titans.
No one saw this coming. Manly have overachieved in every single aspect of the word.
