With 2025 done and dusted, the 2026 season looms as a potential pivot point for several clubs.
Some have the pieces - depth, returning players, momentum - to vault up the ladder. Others, even if still competitive, could slip simply because of attrition, draw difficulty or squad wear-and-tear.
Below are three clubs who look primed for a jump - and three who may find next year a tougher ask than many expect.
Riser: Newcastle Knights
After a horror 2025 season that ended in the wooden spoon, Newcastle arrive at 2026 with a very different vibe: a fresh coaching setup, serious reinvestment in spine talent, and a chance to reset the club's foundations rather than patch them.
The arrival of Dylan Brown is the headline - his 10-year mega-deal represents arguably the boldest “fix” the Knights have attempted for years. That signing alone signals intent: this isn't just a rebuild, but a bid to re-establish foundational structure in attack and ball-control.
Complimenting Brown is the recruitment of Sandon Smith, a playmaker from the Roosters expected to bring creativity, consistency and goal-kicking options - something Newcastle haven't reliably had for seasons.
And then there's Fletcher Sharpe, whose 2025 season was derailed by a serious kidney and spleen injury - but as of late 2025 he's passed the major medical hurdles and is reportedly “ready to rip into 2026”.
On paper then, the spine - arguably Newcastle's biggest long-term weak spot - looks significantly strengthened.
A fit Sharpe, Brown's experience, Smith's playmaking and a healthy, capable backline give the Knights a spine + back-three combination that can attack, control sets and create yardage.
Beyond the spine, Newcastle have restructured their broader roster. The club's new-look coaching staff under Justin Holbrook - fresh from the off-season shake-up - have declared that 2026 will be a full rebuild, focusing on consistency, playing to strengths and restoring confidence.
Once a club that suffered from constant reshuffling of halves, forward rotation and positional chaos - a big factor behind their 2025 collapse - Newcastle now have the chance to build stable combinations across the park.
There's also a psychological and practical advantage: after hitting rock bottom, the pressure of “must-win every week” eases.
That sort of reset can sometimes free players to play with less fear, more cohesion, and renewed commitment. If injury luck is kinder, and if the spine gels early, even a mid-table finish (somewhere between 9th–12th) feels like a realistic - and meaningful - turnaround.
In short: the 2026 Knights are far from a premiership threat. But they might be the most improved club on paper - and if the rebuild clicks, they could go from cellar dwellers to a solid, dangerous mid-table side.
Projected Swing: Wooden spoon → 9th–12th
Wow, I really thought that Bulldogs could be on here, but thankfully they aren’t.
I think all of them are right except Raiders and Storm, they both are still very good team even without those players.
That’s a well-written and challenging piece, Matt.
I follow the arguments and the rationale for all of the clubs.
The only one with which I have a real problem is your assessment of Newcastle.
I read the words, and the sentences make sense, but I am unconvinced by the argument. The expected spine looks a lot more expensive than all the combinations tried in 2025, but I’m not convinced that they will be much more effective.
I can see the club rising, in the sense that from the bottom of the table the only way is up. However, I can’t see Newcastle rising by anywhere near as much as you envisage.
“Not because they lack talent, but because they have reached the point where structural certainty, leadership stability and injury reliability are all sitting on the wrong side of probability.”
That style reminds me of Clive James in his literary criticism days.
And that is a compliment.