The Canterbury Bulldogs were not given a snowball's chance in hell of beating the undefeated Penrith Panthers on Thursday night.
Cameron Ciraldo's side, who had barely fired a shot over the opening four games of their campaign, particularly in attack, entered the game as more than $6 rank outsiders.
And on the surface, it seemed fair enough.
Penrith were letting in just ten points per game, scoring plenty of their own, and came into the clash at Homebush having become the first team to put 50 points on the Melbourne Storm since the blue and white did it in their glory days of 2003.
The 23-year streak being broken left most wondering if Penrith, without that dreaded State of Origin period, could have gone 24 and 0 this year.
They just looked that good.
Compare that to the Bulldogs, who averaged just 15 points per game across their first three, and then scored more against the South Sydney Rabbitohs on Good Friday, but put up what was ultimately a poor showing in their second straight loss.
Maybe more worrying than the Bulldogs' poor attack over those opening games was their defence.
For two years, they have built the engine of the club around it, only for it to falter against first the Newcastle Knights, and then South Sydney on one of the biggest dates of their regular season.
So to say there were concerns around the spine, the attack, and the club more broadly, particularly as they began an upcoming stint of games without Stephen Crichton, who is out with an AC joint injury, would have been the understatement of the century.
But what the lopsided betting odds, and evidently the Panthers, didn't account for was the Bulldogs getting back to basics.
Back to the things that worked for them so well last year, particularly at the defensive end of the park.
The lazy analysis would be to say Penrith didn't turn up, couldn't defend the Lachlan Galvin short ball, and that's why they lost their first game of the season.
But there was more to it than that, because the Panthers didn't just turn up.
They were rattled at both ends of the park by an intense, fire-breathing Canterbury outfit who played with real aggression.
Dare I say it, the Dogs of War mentality that has been lacking to the point one commenter labelled them the Chihuahua's of war over the opening month and change of the competition.
Sitili Tupouniua, who has been their most impactful forward in recent weeks, has been maybe the greatest example of a player just ripping in, chasing contact, and doing his job.
But last night, he was joined by the entirety of the Bulldogs' forward pack, and it was clear that Penrith had no answers.
In the previous games, Penrith have had the ruck battle and middle third all their own way. They dominate with their own line speed and have enough attack (and fatigue, for that matter) to dominate with the ball in hand.
But from the opening minute, the Bulldogs essentially got on the front foot and bullied the Panthers.
Not every club is going to be able to do it, and the intensity Canterbury played with won't be able to be matched every single week, but they got just about every part of their game right last night.
The most evident change for Penrith is in their average distance per set.
Across the first five games of their competition, they have averaged 40.95 metres per set with the ball in hand. The last three weeks have all been above that average, too.
Last night, they averaged just 34.53 metres per set.
Across the first five weeks, Penrith have also averaged less than 37 metres per set conceded. Last night, the Bulldogs managed about 41 metres per set.
That was the key difference in how Penrith played against the Bulldogs, and how they have played their other games.
There were other issues, of course. Penrith's error count was way up, and their defence was unable to react to Canterbury's onslaught in attack, which, granted, still had the Lachlan Galvin short ball to likely New South Wales Blues second-rower Jacob Preston as its key weapon.
But all of that - Penrith dropping the footy, not defending as well as usual, being rushed in their attack, particularly on the last tackle - it was caused by Canterbury's line speed, their up-in-your-face rhetoric, and their aggression in contact.
Tupouniua may have led that when he got on the park, but don't underestimate the role Viliame Kikau, Preston, Samuel Hughes and even Max King played in that as he battled through what we now know was a broken jaw.
Turning defence into attack through aggressive defence is something Penrith and other top clubs like the Melbourne Storm have made part of their weekly game plan over the years.
The Bulldogs, because they scored a lot of points in the first half of last year, haven't had to rely on it as much, but last night, that's exactly what happened.
They used their defence to rattle the Panthers, and then, with their best execution yet on the attacking side of the coin, made them pay.
It's maybe no surprise they knew how to handle the Panthers. Cameron Ciraldo is the head coach, and Viliame Kikau was at the club only a few years ago, but executing against the game's best still requires another level.
Particularly when you consider the Belmore side's form coming in.
It's not to say they are going to be able to reproduce that every week, but they have unlocked the keys to their season and provided the rest of the competition a blueprint on how to beat Penrith.
Neither of those things is going to happen consistently without bone-rattling aggression and line speed.
