Every year, NRL teams enter the competition with varying levels of expectations.
Some are aiming for the premiership, some are trying to sneak back into finals footy, others are trying to stop a slide, and some just want to steer clear of the bottom after a handful of disastrous campaigns.
The 2025 campaign saw new premiers crowned, finally dethroning the Penrith Panthers, while some clubs were ahead of expectations, led by the Canterbury Bulldogs and Canberra Raiders, and others fell well short of where they should have been, led by the North Queensland Cowboys and South Sydney Rabbitohs.
With off-season moves done, Zero Tackle have unpacked the realistic expectations for every NRL team heading into 2026, picking the pass mark for each and every team.
Multiple teams share the same pass marks throughout, but that ultimately means some teams are going to be left unhappy.
New Zealand Warriors
Top eight
The Warriors start the 2026 campaign in pursuit of another finals appearance.
Consistency has been their biggest issue over the journey, and that's hardly a surprise given the travel they have to do every week.
Still, Andrew Webster appears to be starting to work it out, and if he can keep it going, then they could well push up towards the top four.
Luke Metcalf's fitness will be the biggest key for the Warriors in 2026 once again.
I think “Push for the Top Four” is ambitious for the Dolphins.
If I were one of their management or their fans, I would think that just making the top eight and playing finals would be a success, this season.