Every year, NRL teams enter the competition with varying levels of expectations.
Some are aiming for the premiership, some are trying to sneak back into finals footy, others are trying to stop a slide, and some just want to steer clear of the bottom after a handful of disastrous campaigns.
The 2025 campaign saw new premiers crowned, finally dethroning the Penrith Panthers, while some clubs were ahead of expectations, led by the Canterbury Bulldogs and Canberra Raiders, and others fell well short of where they should have been, led by the North Queensland Cowboys and South Sydney Rabbitohs.
With off-season moves done, Zero Tackle have unpacked the realistic expectations for every NRL team heading into 2026, picking the pass mark for each and every team.
Multiple teams share the same pass marks throughout, but that ultimately means some teams are going to be left unhappy.
St George Illawarra Dragons
Compete for finals
The Dragons had an extremely disappointing 2025 campaign, not helped by numerous injuries. In fact, they wound up with the second-worst injury run in the competition.
Despite their finish towards the bottom of the table, there were positives to take.
They lost three games by a point, ten by less than ten points, and beat three out of the top four throughout the season, registering two points against the Storm, Broncos and Raiders, while they also beat the Sharks, adn pushed the Warriors and Roosters all the way out of the top eight.
The result was a fail, but the way they got there wasn't.
Daniel Atkinson is the great new hope for 2026 after joining from the Cronulla Sharks, while a host of young players should be better for the run.
It's hard to see the Red V playing finals, but they should be in the mix, contrary to popular belief with plenty of wooden spoon predictions.
I think “Push for the Top Four” is ambitious for the Dolphins.
If I were one of their management or their fans, I would think that just making the top eight and playing finals would be a success, this season.