Every year, NRL teams enter the competition with varying levels of expectations.
Some are aiming for the premiership, some are trying to sneak back into finals footy, others are trying to stop a slide, and some just want to steer clear of the bottom after a handful of disastrous campaigns.
The 2025 campaign saw new premiers crowned, finally dethroning the Penrith Panthers, while some clubs were ahead of expectations, led by the Canterbury Bulldogs and Canberra Raiders, and others fell well short of where they should have been, led by the North Queensland Cowboys and South Sydney Rabbitohs.
With off-season moves done, Zero Tackle have unpacked the realistic expectations for every NRL team heading into 2026, picking the pass mark for each and every team.
Multiple teams share the same pass marks throughout, but that ultimately means some teams are going to be left unhappy.
Parramatta Eels
Top eight
The Parramatta Eels are the MItchell Moses show. That is not a secret, and nor does it take science to figure out.
When Moses plays, the Eels could back themselves to beat anyone. When he doesn't, as was the case for too much of 2025, they struggle to beat anyone.
That's why, ultimately, Parramatta's expectations for 2026 are going to be hinging on whether the star halfback can stay fit.
With Jonah Pezet to join him in the halves and Jason Ryles guiding his squad in the right direction though, a pass mark is going to be the top eight.
I think “Push for the Top Four” is ambitious for the Dolphins.
If I were one of their management or their fans, I would think that just making the top eight and playing finals would be a success, this season.