Every year, NRL teams enter the competition with varying levels of expectations.
Some are aiming for the premiership, some are trying to sneak back into finals footy, others are trying to stop a slide, and some just want to steer clear of the bottom after a handful of disastrous campaigns.
The 2025 campaign saw new premiers crowned, finally dethroning the Penrith Panthers, while some clubs were ahead of expectations, led by the Canterbury Bulldogs and Canberra Raiders, and others fell well short of where they should have been, led by the North Queensland Cowboys and South Sydney Rabbitohs.
With off-season moves done, Zero Tackle have unpacked the realistic expectations for every NRL team heading into 2026, picking the pass mark for each and every team.
Multiple teams share the same pass marks throughout, but that ultimately means some teams are going to be left unhappy.
North Queensland Cowboys
Top eight
The Cowboys, alongside the Sea Eagles, enter 2026 with the biggest questions in the coaching department.
Todd Payten is cutting the figure of a man on borrowed time to be frank.
He might have made the finals with the Cowboys in 2024, but 2025 simply wasn't a good enough result for the on paper very strong Cowboys outfit.
Unfortunately though, their travel, their inconsistency, and questions over who will partner Tom Dearden in the halves, just make it too difficult to expect they will bounce up the ladder.
Anything less than a finals appearance could spell the end for Payten though.
I think “Push for the Top Four” is ambitious for the Dolphins.
If I were one of their management or their fans, I would think that just making the top eight and playing finals would be a success, this season.