The bye rounds are over, and the run to the NRL finals is about to go up the gears.
With eight weeks to go, it's time to take stock of where every team sits, the run to the finish line, and just who is likely to play finals footy.
Each week on Zero Tackle between now and the end of the regular season, we will run a piece just like this, taking stock of what's left, and updating the predicted final ladder.
Here is the state of play heading into Round 20 of the 2025 NRL season.
1. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 1st, 32 points, +108
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 20: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 21: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 22: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Wollongong)
Round 23: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 24: Bye
Round 25: Penrith Panthers (away - Mudgee)
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (away)
The Raiders have one of the competition's softest runs to the finish line.
Already locked into a finals spot on the back of their 14 wins, it's now a case of whether the Green Machine can secure the minor premiership.
They should take a good step in that direction over the next month, and even if they do fall short in a few of their final three, we still have them winning another five to secure top spot on the ladder.
Likely finish: 1st
2. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 2nd, 30 points, + 220
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 20: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 21: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 22: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 23: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 24: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 25: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (away)
In one of those stupidly annoying quirks of the NRL draw, the Storm are drawn to play both the Roosters and Broncos twice over the final eight weeks.
Those matches will go a good way to determining where they finish, as will their trip away to face the Panthers.
The Storm have shown enough though. We expect another six wins, and it to be enough to lock up a home qualifying final on for and against.
Likely finish: 2nd
3. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 3rd, 30 points, + 96
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 20: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 21: Manly Sea Eagles (home - Allianz Stadium)
Round 22: Wests Tigers (away - Campbelltown)
Round 23: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 24: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 25: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (home)
This is the sort of run to the finals that is going to really tell us where the Bulldogs are at following their form drop off in recent weeks.
Still a strong footy side, there is a school of thought that suggests they haven't had the toughest of draws to this point in the season.
It's their defence which has stood up when it's mattered though, and if that continues, then they should win another six games, just missing a home qualifying final on for and against.
Likely finish: 3rd
4. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 4th, 28 points, + 31
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 20: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 21: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 22: The Dolphins (home)
Round 23: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 24: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 25: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
The Warriors are now maybe the toughest team to tip on the run home thanks to their injury issues. Luke Metcalf is out for the year, and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is also missing at the moment.
Their performance with Tanah Boyd in the seven over the weekend though says they still have plenty about them.
We have them winning six of their run home games - and it's not exactly a complex draw - to secure a second chance in September.
Likely finish: 4th
5. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 5th, 24 points, + 80
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 20: Bye
Round 21: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 22: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 23: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 24: The Dolphins (home)
Round 25: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
The Broncos have a tough enough run home, headlined by two games against the Melbourne Storm.
They have the bye this week which is a free two points, and then a couple of must-win home games after that.
Their form looks to have turned a corner, and they should cling onto a home elimination final.
Likely finish: 6th
6. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 6th, 23 points, + 25
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 20: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 21: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 22: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 23: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 24: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 25: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Wollongong)
Really, is anyone surprised by the sudden turnaround of the Panthers?
They have hit form at the right end of the season, and given the way they are playing, it's hard to nominate any side they'd be likely to lose to at the moment.
They have some extremely tough games, but we reckon they'll claim seven of their final eight. Not enough to make the top four, but they'll be hosting an elimination final.
Likely finish: 5th
7. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 7th, 22 points, + 58
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 20: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 21: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 22: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 23: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 24: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 25: The Dolphins (home)
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (home)
This is as tricky as a run to the line gets for a middle of the road team.
They clash with all of the top four between now and the end of the season, as well as the Roosters.
While they play the Tigers and Dragons, that is unlikely to be enough to sneak the Sea Eagles into the finals unless they can find a big lift in their form - and quickly.
Likely finish: 9th
8. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 8th, 22 points, + 21
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 20: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 21: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 22: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 23: The Dolphins (away)
Round 24: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 25: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
The level of importance over the next few weeks for the tri-colours simply can't be overstated.
Cronulla and Manly are on the menu, as are the Dolphins. All three of those games, worked around a Melbourne Storm clash, have enormous finals implications.
It's a mixed run home for the Roosters, but we expect that they will do enough with five wins to sneak into the top eight.
Likely finish: 8th
9. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 9th, 22 points, + 8
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 20: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 21: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away - Gosford)
Round 22: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 23: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Kogarah)
Round 24: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Sharks have one of the easier runs home, taking on a number of teams outside of the eight. Even one of those 'banana peel' type games against the Cowboys sees them at home.
Simply put, the Sharks need to lift their form, but even then, there is no excuse for the club to miss the finals.
We have them slotting into a road trip for the elimination finals with only one loss before the end of the season coming in the final round.
Likely finish: 7th
10. The Dolphins
Current position: 10th, 20 points, + 150
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 20: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 21: Bye
Round 22: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 23: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 24: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 25: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
In what has been an impossible NRL season to tip, the Dolphins have been among the toughest.
Their attack is off the charts, but their defence, as was proven last week against Cronulla, can fail under the microscope.
Unfortunately for the NRL's 17th club, their run home is going to be just a little bit too tough to recover their position, and they will miss the finals.
Likely finish: 10th
11. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 11th, 18 points, - 56
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 20: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 21: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 22: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 23: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 24: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (home)
The Dragons, if their finals chances weren't already finished off against the Roosters, should well and truly slip over the next five weeks.
Their run home is tough.
We have their next shot at a win in Round 25 against the Rabbitohs, and they will do well to avoid the bottom four - we have them doing so but on for and against only.
Likely finish: 13th
12. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 12th, 17 points, - 144
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 20: The Dolphins (away)
Round 21: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 22: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 23: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 24: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 25: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 27: Bye
The Cowboys face a difficult run to the finish line in 2025, with a bye tacked onto the end.
Unfortunately for Todd Payten's inconsistent side, we can't see that helping them into the top eight, with too many difficult games on the road between now and the end of the year.
The Cowboys could well spring a surprise though, as they have done on multiple occasions this year.
Likely finish: 11th
13. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 13th, 16 points, - 85
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 20: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 21: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 22: Bye
Round 23: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 24: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 25: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (away)
The Knights not only have one of the competition's toughest runs to the end of the year, but also injuries.
Kalyn Ponga, Fletcher Sharpe and Dylan Lucas are all gone for the year, while Adam Elliott is only likely to play another game or two.
The Knights have struggled all year, and now might be about to sack Adam O'Brien. It's hard to see them winning another game.
Likely finish: 16th
14. Wests Tigers
Current position: 14th, 16 points, - 102
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 20: Gold Coast Titans (home - Leichhardt)
Round 21: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 22: Canterbury Bulldogs (home - CommBank Stadium)
Round 23: Bye
Round 24: Manly Sea Eagles (home - Allianz Stadium)
Round 25: North Queensland Cowboys (home - Leichhardt)
Round 26: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
The Tigers have a mixed run home where they should be able to pick up some results, but all in all, it'll never be enough to make the top eight.
We have them winning another three games, which should be enough to miss the bottom four at least.
Likely finish: 12th
15. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 15th, 16 points, - 125
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 20: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 21: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 22: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 23: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 24: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 25: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Newcastle Knights (home)
The Eels face a handful of tricky games in the next couple of weeks which should ensure their slim hopes of making the finals are dashed.
We have them just slipping into the bottom four on for and against when it's all said and done.
Likely finish: 14th
16. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 16th, 16 points, - 129
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 20: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 21: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 22: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 23: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 24: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 25: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (away)
It has been an exceptionally tricky year for South Sydney with injuries galore ensuring they have never been able to find a dominant streak of form.
Their defence too has been shoddy at the best of times, and with plenty of games against top eight opposition on the run home, they are going to struggle to escape the bottom echelon of the table.
Likely finish: 15th
17. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 17th, 14 points, - 156
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 20: Wests Tigers (away - Leichhardt)
Round 21: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 22: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 23: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 24: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 25: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 26: The Dolphins (away)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
At this point, it wouldn't matter who the Titans are playing - they are going to struggle to win.
This is a team without direction, without intensity, with some injuries, and with a coach who will likely be out the door as soon as it's all over.
Hard to see them winning again this year.
Likely finish: 17th
Predicted final ladder
1. Canberra Raiders - 44 points
2. Melbourne Storm - 42 points
3. Canterbury Bulldogs - 42 points
4. New Zealand Warriors - 40 points
5. Penrith Panthers - 37 points
6. Brisbane Broncos - 36 points
7. Cronulla Sharks - 36 points
8. Sydney Roosters - 32 points
9. Manly Sea Eagles - 28 points
10. The Dolphins - 28 points
11. North Queensland Cowboys - 25 points
12. Wests Tigers - 24 points
13. St George Illawarra Dragons - 22 points
14. Parramatta Eels - 22 points
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs - 20 points
16. Newcastle Knights - 18 points
17. Gold Coast Titans - 14 points
Predicted finals Week 1
Qualifying final 1:Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors At GIO Stadium
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs at AAMI PARK
Elimination final 1: Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters at CommBank Stadium
Elimination final 2: Brisbane Broncos vs Cronulla Sharks at Suncorp Stadium
