The NRL has a trend when it comes to the top eight each season.
For the last four seasons, three teams in, and three teams out has been the way of the rugby league world.
Starting with the 2022 season, there have been three new clubs into the eight, and three from the previous season missing out.
2022
In: North Queensland Cowboys, Canberra Raiders, Cronulla Sharks
Out: Gold Coast Titans, Manly Sea Eagles, Newcastle Knights
2023
In: Brisbane Broncos, Newcastle Knights, New Zealand Warriors
Out: South Sydney Rabbitohs, Parramatta Eels, North Queensland Cowboys
2024
In: Canterbury Bulldogs, North Queensland Cowboys, Manly Sea Eagles
Out: Brisbane Broncos, Canberra Raiders, New Zealand Warriors
2025
In: Brisbane Broncos, Canberra Raiders, New Zealand Warriors
Out: North Queensland Cowboys, Newcastle Knights, Manly Sea Eagles
That then begs the question.
Which teams will move into the eight from outside, and which will fall from inside to outside in 2026.
Here are the picks.
Top eight exclusion 3: Canberra Raiders
Minor premiers one year, missing the top eight the next?
It certainly seems harsh, there is no doubt about that, but you also have to acknowledge the enormous departure of Jamal Fogarty from the Raiders.
He was, and has been for a number of years, the key man in the nation's capital. Anything good that has happened for the lime green has been down to his efforts.
He starts 2026 on the Norther Beaches of Sydney with the Manly Sea Eagles, and the Raiders' attempts to replace him with someone experienced fell through.
Ethan Sanders, who didn't impress in the 2025 NSW Cup season, or Coby Black, a prodigiously talented player, but still a rookie who has moved from Brisbane, will take the number seven jumper for Canberra in 2026.
It's hard to see that being enough to produce the attack needed for another run into what will be a super competitive top eight in 2026.
As they are forced to say in the financial services adverts: “Past performance is not an indicator of future performance”.
It’s a rubbish statement because if you believe it, then on what basis would you transfer your savings from one crowd to another ?
I think something holds similar, here.
It’s true that in recent years some clubs have risen into the eight, and some have fallen out of the eight; and that the figures show three up and three out. But there is no reason to assume that there is some immutable law of nature, or that the footies gods have conspired to produce this outcome.
I suspect that this year we will see:
– seven of 2025’s eight filling the top eight spots in September.
– Parra going nowhere now that Lomax has gone
– Souths in and Auckland out.
– Canberra hang on in the eight by the skin of their teeth !
Bulldogs and Raiders are staying in the eight, Eels won’t go in and Souths might not make it.