The NRL has a trend when it comes to the top eight each season.

For the last four seasons, three teams in, and three teams out has been the way of the rugby league world.

Starting with the 2022 season, there have been three new clubs into the eight, and three from the previous season missing out.

2022
In: North Queensland Cowboys, Canberra Raiders, Cronulla Sharks
Out: Gold Coast Titans, Manly Sea Eagles, Newcastle Knights

2023
In: Brisbane Broncos, Newcastle Knights, New Zealand Warriors
Out: South Sydney Rabbitohs, Parramatta Eels, North Queensland Cowboys

2024
In: Canterbury Bulldogs, North Queensland Cowboys, Manly Sea Eagles
Out: Brisbane Broncos, Canberra Raiders, New Zealand Warriors

2025
In: Brisbane Broncos, Canberra Raiders, New Zealand Warriors
Out: North Queensland Cowboys, Newcastle Knights, Manly Sea Eagles

That then begs the question.

Which teams will move into the eight from outside, and which will fall from inside to outside in 2026.

Here are the picks.

Top eight exclusion 2: Canterbury Bulldogs

Identifying teams to miss the top eight from last season is actually quite a difficult task heading into 2026.

Generally speaking, you expect them to come from the bottom half, but it's difficult to see the consistent Cronulla Sharks, preliminary finalist the Penrith Panthers, or the Sydney Roosters dropping out.

That means we have to turn our attention further up the table, and that means the Bulldogs look a dear in headlights.

The decisions made in the second half of 2025 really hampered their run into the finals, and heading into 2026, Bailey Hayward, who is not an 80-minute hooker, will likely be required to do just that, they will have either a five-eighth in Lachlan Galvin or a rookie in Mitchell Woods at halfback, and their forwards, which need a size upgrade, have added Leo Thompson on huge money.

Thompson though is a player the jury is still very much out on.

It's not hard to see why there are doubts around the blue and white to repeat their 2025 dose, but you'd have to think if this trend of three in and three out does change, they could be the one off this list to survive.

2 COMMENTS

  1. As they are forced to say in the financial services adverts: “Past performance is not an indicator of future performance”.

    It’s a rubbish statement because if you believe it, then on what basis would you transfer your savings from one crowd to another ?

    I think something holds similar, here.

    It’s true that in recent years some clubs have risen into the eight, and some have fallen out of the eight; and that the figures show three up and three out. But there is no reason to assume that there is some immutable law of nature, or that the footies gods have conspired to produce this outcome.

    I suspect that this year we will see:
    – seven of 2025’s eight filling the top eight spots in September.
    – Parra going nowhere now that Lomax has gone
    – Souths in and Auckland out.
    – Canberra hang on in the eight by the skin of their teeth !