The NRL has a trend when it comes to the top eight each season.

For the last four seasons, three teams in, and three teams out has been the way of the rugby league world.

Starting with the 2022 season, there have been three new clubs into the eight, and three from the previous season missing out.

2022
In: North Queensland Cowboys, Canberra Raiders, Cronulla Sharks
Out: Gold Coast Titans, Manly Sea Eagles, Newcastle Knights

2023
In: Brisbane Broncos, Newcastle Knights, New Zealand Warriors
Out: South Sydney Rabbitohs, Parramatta Eels, North Queensland Cowboys

2024
In: Canterbury Bulldogs, North Queensland Cowboys, Manly Sea Eagles
Out: Brisbane Broncos, Canberra Raiders, New Zealand Warriors

2025
In: Brisbane Broncos, Canberra Raiders, New Zealand Warriors
Out: North Queensland Cowboys, Newcastle Knights, Manly Sea Eagles

That then begs the question.

Which teams will move into the eight from outside, and which will fall from inside to outside in 2026.

Here are the picks.

Top eight exclusion 1: New Zealand Warriors

Maybe the toughest of the three clubs to call, but by no means the most likely to drop out, we have the Warriors being one of the three to depart the top eight heading into 2026.

The Warriors had a very strong start to 2025, but Luke Metcalf's injury changed everything, although they still wound up making the top eight.

Metcalf is expected to miss the first six or so weeks of the 2026 campaign, which will certainly hamper Andrew Webster's side in their pursuit of a strong start.

Unlike the Panthers in 2025, the Warriors can't afford to be on the outer looking in given their travel schedule.

There is also an underlying inconsistency issue for the Warriors.

They made the finals in 2023, missed them in 2024, made them in 2025… You get the picture.

2 COMMENTS

  1. As they are forced to say in the financial services adverts: “Past performance is not an indicator of future performance”.

    It’s a rubbish statement because if you believe it, then on what basis would you transfer your savings from one crowd to another ?

    I think something holds similar, here.

    It’s true that in recent years some clubs have risen into the eight, and some have fallen out of the eight; and that the figures show three up and three out. But there is no reason to assume that there is some immutable law of nature, or that the footies gods have conspired to produce this outcome.

    I suspect that this year we will see:
    – seven of 2025’s eight filling the top eight spots in September.
    – Parra going nowhere now that Lomax has gone
    – Souths in and Auckland out.
    – Canberra hang on in the eight by the skin of their teeth !