A stunning Manly Sea Eagles win has further tightened the race for the NRL top eight with seven rounds to go.
The win over the Melbourne Storm could well drop the Storm out of the top two at the end of the regular season, while it also sneaks Manly - who have a tricky run home - closer to the top eight.
Every other game during Round 20 was tipped correctly meaning there are limited changes to the predicted final ladder from last week.
Each week on Zero Tackle between now and the end of the regular season, we will tip the week ahead, take stock of what's left, run through every club's trip to the finish line, and predict the final ladder.
Here is the current state of play heading into Round 21 of the 2025 NRL season.
Round 21 tips
Melbourne Storm to defeat Sydney Roosters
North Queensland Cowboys to defeat St George Illawarra Dragons
Brisbane Broncos to defeat Parramatta Eels
New Zealand Warriors to defeat Gold Coast Titans
Penrith Panthers to defeat Wests Tigers
Cronulla Sharks to defeat South Sydney Rabbitohs
Canberra Raiders to defeat Newcastle Knights
Canterbury Bulldogs to defeat Manly Sea Eagles
1. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 1st, 34 points, + 132
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 21: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 22: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Wollongong)
Round 23: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 24: Bye
Round 25: Penrith Panthers (away - Mudgee)
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (away)
The Raiders just keep on rolling.
A heavy win over the Parramatta Eels has them still on track to finish top of the table at the end of the season.
They have a comparatively easy run to the finish line, although that game against Manly in Round 23 is now shaping up as an intriguing one after the Sea Eagles managed to defeat Melbourne. We still have Canberra winning it, but if they don't the minor premiership becomes a question mark.
Granted, we also have them falling short on the road against the potentially desperate Dolphins in Round 27.
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Nil
2. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 2nd, 32 points, + 98
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining:
Round 21: Manly Sea Eagles (home - Allianz Stadium)
Round 22: Wests Tigers (away - Campbelltown)
Round 23: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 24: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 25: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (home)
The Bulldogs beat the Dragons over the weekend, but they were shaky in their first game with Lachlan Galvin at halfback. Arguably, they should have lost.
They run into a desperate Manly this week in what will be a true test.
We are holding firm on our prediction of another five wins for the Belmore-based outfit (with losses to the Roosters and Storm), but that could change pretty rapidly if their level of performance continues to falter.
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Up one spot
3. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 3rd, 30 points, + 218
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 21: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 22: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 23: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 24: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 25: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (away)
The loss to the Sea Eagles over the weekend was the only major surprise out of Round 20.
If it was any other team, you'd be concerned, but the Storm have a way of turning things around pretty quickly.
That said, even with five wins out of their last seven (we have them losing to Penrith and the Broncos in Round 27), it may well cost them a home qualifying final.
They will be sweating on the Bulldogs dropping a game somewhere, or picking up one of the two expected losses.
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Down one spot
4. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 4th, 30 points, + 36
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 21: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 22: The Dolphins (home)
Round 23: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 24: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 25: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
The Warriors were squeaky at best as they got over the top of the Knights in the final game of Round 20.
Always a tricky road trip, and with stars injured, the Warriors will be glad to have two competition points and be on their way.
Still plenty to do though if they are gonig to hang onto a top four spot. Their run home features enough home games - and simple ones at that - though that they should hang on.
We have them winning five of their last seven with losses to the Bulldogs and Manly.
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Nil
5. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 5th, 26 points, + 80
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 21: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 22: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 23: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 24: The Dolphins (home)
Round 25: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
Nothing changes for the Broncos. They have had their last bye, chalked up another two points, and now their destiny is in their own hands.
It's a tough enough run in, so they need to control the next fortnight with a pair of convincing wins.
We have them winning five of their last seven, with losses on the road to the Storm and Cowboys.
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Nil
6. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 6th, 25 points, + 45
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 21: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 22: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 23: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 24: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 25: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Wollongong)
The Panthers had an - as expected - convincing win over the Rabbitohs on the weekend.
They should follow that up with three from three in their next couple of games, before the draw gets tougher.
Granted, we only have them losing one more on the run in - away against the Bulldogs in Round 26. They will go close to a top-four berth if the teams ahead slip up.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Nil
7. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 7th, 24 points, + 60
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 21: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 22: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 23: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 24: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 25: The Dolphins (home)
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (home)
The Sea Eagles have moved themselves right back into the finals mix with their win over the Storm on the weekend.
It's still an exceedingly tough run home though, and at the moment, we have them missing the finals... But the margin has trimmed. If they can find a way to beat one of the Bulldogs, Roosters, Raiders or Dragons, then it might be enough to play finals footy on for and against.
That game against the Roosters in a fortnight is a four-point swing type of game.
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Nil, but closing on 8th.
8. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 8th, 24 points, + 21
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 21: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away - Gosford)
Round 22: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 23: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Kogarah)
Round 24: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Sharks did what they needed to do and put away the Roosters on Friday, now moving into a stretch of their draw where wins should be plentiful.
It's an easy run to the finish line for Craig Fitzgibbon's side as highlighted last week, and as long as they take care of business, there may only be one or more loss across the final seven weeks to go with a bye, that coming against Canterbury in the final round.
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Nil
9. The Dolphins
Current position: 9th, 22 points, + 169
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 21: Bye
Round 22: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 23: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 24: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 25: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
The Dolphins have their final bye of the season this weekend after taking care of business over the Cowboys on the weekend.
It was a critical two points, but our numbers suggest they are going to have to find a way to upset at least two of the Warriors, Roosters, Broncos or Sea Eagles while winning their final two games against the Titans and Raiders to qualify for a first finals series.
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Nil
10. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 10th, 22 points, + 8
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 21: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 22: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 23: The Dolphins (away)
Round 24: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 25: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
The Roosters, as has become typical in recent years, have a tricky run to the finish line, not made easier by failing to beat the Sharks on the weekend.
We had tipped it that way though and still suspect they will win enough games to make the finals, but it now requires a win against Manly in Round 22.
That could be a top-eight deciding game.
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Nil
11. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 11th, 18 points, - 58
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 21: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 22: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 23: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 24: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (home)
If the Dragons had a chance of making the finals, they likely needed to get a win over the Bulldogs on the weekend - and they were in the position to do so.
They have now lost eight games by less than eight points this year.
We have them winning just two more games on the run home, and they'd likely need to win all seven to have a crack at the finals with the finals mark shaping up as 32 points (that is, 12 wins and 3 byes).
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Nil
12. Wests Tigers
Current position: 12th, 18 points, - 101
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 21: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 22: Canterbury Bulldogs (home - CommBank Stadium)
Round 23: Bye
Round 24: Manly Sea Eagles (home - Allianz Stadium)
Round 25: North Queensland Cowboys (home - Leichhardt)
Round 26: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
The Tigers managed to sneak past the Titans and keep the feintest of finals hopes flickering in front of a packed out Leichhardt Oval crowd on Sunday.
We suspect that might come to a shuddering halt in the next fortnight though with the Panthers and Bulldogs on the menu.
The Tigers might get wins over the Cowboys at home, and the Titans on the road, in the final seven weeks, but they, like the Dragons would probably need to win close to every game they have left to make the finals despite also having a bye up their sleeve.
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Nil
13. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 13th, 17 points, - 163
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 21: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 22: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 23: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 24: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 25: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 27: Bye
A horror loss to the Dolphins is just the latest in a string of poor form for Todd Payten's side.
The coach, now under all sorts of pressure, needs to find a way for his side to beat the Dragons at home this week, but finals chances have all but evaporated.
We have them finding a way to win three of their last six, but that must be shaky given their form.
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Nil
14. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 14th, 16 points, - 90
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 21: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 22: Bye
Round 23: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 24: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 25: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (away)
Any chance the Knights had of making the finals went up in smoke on Sunday with a loss to the Warriors.
The club, who do have a bye remaining, would now need to win six from six, but even then, for and against would likely seem them short of a top eight berth.
Their run home should make that an impossibility anyway - they'll be lucky to win again given their injuries as pressure continues to grow on Adam O'Brien.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 15th, 16 points, - 149
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 21: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 22: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 23: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 24: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 25: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (away)
The Rabbitohs sneak up a spot on the table despite their loss to the Panthers on the weekend with all sorts of tie-breakers in use.
It won't help them though. They are likely to need part-time players this weekend, and their injury toll has forced us to reconsider our tip of a solitary win to round out the season against the Gold Coast in Round 23. We are keeping it as a win to the Bunnies at the moment, but that's shaping as a tough match to tip and could drop South Sydney to 16th if they lose.
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Nil.
16. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 16th, 16 points, - 149
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 21: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 22: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 23: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 24: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 25: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Newcastle Knights (home)
The Eels suffered another loss over the weekend, this time to the Raiders.
They'll have some intrigue over their final six weeks given Dylan Brown's axing, but are out of the finals race. We expect a win to close the season over Newcastle, but not much more.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
17. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 17th, 14 points, - 157
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 21: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 22: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 23: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 24: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 25: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 26: The Dolphins (away)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
The Titans are a rabble. How they didn't beat the Tigers on Sunday is anyone's guess.
Des Hasler will likely be sacked before the campaign is out given their performances. That could see a bounce back, but right now, we are tipping them to not win again and pick up the spoon in not exactly convincing, but uncomfortable fashion.
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
Predicted final ladder
1. Canberra Raiders - 44 points
2. Canterbury Bulldogs - 42 points
3. Melbourne Storm - 40 points
4. New Zealand Warriors - 40 points
5. Penrith Panthers - 37 points
6. Brisbane Broncos - 36 points
7. Cronulla Sharks - 36 points
8. Sydney Roosters - 32 points
9. Manly Sea Eagles - 30 points
10. The Dolphins - 28 points
11. North Queensland Cowboys - 25 points
12. Wests Tigers - 24 points
13. St George Illawarra Dragons - 22 points
14. Parramatta Eels - 22 points
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs - 20 points
16. Newcastle Knights - 18 points
17. Gold Coast Titans - 14 points
Predicted Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1:Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors at GIO Stadium, Canberra
Qualifying final 2: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Melbourne Storm at Accor Stadium, Homebush
Elimination final 1: Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters at CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Elimination final 2: Brisbane Broncos vs Cronulla Sharks at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
