Every year, NRL teams enter the competition with varying levels of expectations.
Some are aiming for the premiership, some are trying to sneak back into finals footy, others are trying to stop a slide, and some just want to steer clear of the bottom after a handful of disastrous campaigns.
The 2025 campaign saw new premiers crowned, finally dethroning the Penrith Panthers, while some clubs were ahead of expectations, led by the Canterbury Bulldogs and Canberra Raiders, and others fell well short of where they should have been, led by the North Queensland Cowboys and South Sydney Rabbitohs.
With off-season moves done, Zero Tackle have unpacked the realistic expectations for every NRL team heading into 2026, picking the pass mark for each and every team.
Multiple teams share the same pass marks throughout, but that ultimately means some teams are going to be left unhappy.
Penrith Panthers
Grand final
The Panthers, when they sat last halfway through the campaign, really looked as if they were at the end of their dynasty.
But then the engine started.
They bounced up the table and wound up cracking the top eight in what was a stunning turn of events over the final months of the season.
In the end, they couldn't make their sixth straight grand final, but this is a team with all the talent, and young players who will be better for the run.
Still led by the same coaching, and with the same stars as during their four-peat, they should be in the mix to get back to the big dance.
I think “Push for the Top Four” is ambitious for the Dolphins.
If I were one of their management or their fans, I would think that just making the top eight and playing finals would be a success, this season.