The ultimate guide to State of Origin selection

Fullback

Incumbent: Reece Walsh
Walsh might have played all three games at the back last year, but he will miss at least Game 1 this year injured.

Frankly, he was no guarantee of selection anyway given his form line for the Broncos, which included far too many errors as he overplayed his hand on a regular basis prior to injury.

Key rival: Kalyn Ponga
Ponga is certainly the closest rival to Walsh, and would have been last year too had he not made himself unavailable for the start of the series.

But whether he is actually selected or not remains to be seen. Statistically, he has struggled to start the year in a Knights team who rely on him for attack, but are sitting at the bottom of the competition when it comes to the points scored metric.

He is playing around players who certainly aren't Origin calibre, but you can only be judged off your performances, and it's tough to say there has been enough there.

Other options: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Cameron Munster
The reason it's tough to say there is enough there for Ponga to be selected is the Hammer.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has been in superb form for the Dolphins, scoring seven tries in ten games and assisting another three, to go with 49 tackle busts, 3 line breaks and 166 metres per game. He has also only made 5 errors across the course of the season.

There has been some talk about Cameron Munster lining up in the number one as well, but if he is anywhere other than five-eighth, it'll be a surprise.

What Billy Slater must determine is whether the team is more dangerous with Tabuai-Fidow in the centres, or whether it's a bullet he can bite to have him at fullback.

Verdict: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

Wingers

Incumbents: Selwyn Cobbo, Valentine Holmes
The Maroons had plenty of injuries for Game 3 last year, winding up in Selwyn Cobbo and centre Valentine Holmes needing to line up on the wing.

It's pretty clear neither of them - at full strength anyway - will line up on the wing for Queensland this go around.

Key rival: Xavier Coates
Xavier Coates is the first back into the side. He brings uncoachable attributes, height and speed, and will have a field day pending on his match-up out wide.

As it stands, he has seven tries in nine games this year, but has been heavily involved with 5 try assists, 36 tackle busts and maybe more importantly, a career-high 154 metres per game.

Other options: Murray Taulagi, Dane Gagai, Jesse Arthars
Like Coates, Murray Taulagi should come straight back into the side. A consistent performer at the Cowboys, Taulagi has seven tries in his nine games as well, to go with 33 tackle busts and 166 metres per game.

The Maroons aren't short on depth on the wing, but the players in contention are Gagai, who is well past his best days, and Cobbo, who we have elsewhere in the side.

Beyond those two, Jesse Arthars could be the next best option for the Maroons.

Verdict: Xavier Coates, Murray Taulagi

Centres

Incumbents: Dane Gagai, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
The Maroons, as mentioned, had a stack of injuries last year, forcing Gagai to play in the centres during Game 3. He won't be there this year.

As you've already seen, we have Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow at fullback.

Key rival: Selwyn Cobbo
Cobbo comes into the side as one of the centres for Game 1 of this year's series.

It's a major risk given his previous play for the Broncos at centre, but to have the Hammer at fullback, it's a risk well worth taking.

He has been in excellent form for the Broncos as well, whether that be at centre, or fullback in more recent weeks following Walsh's injury.

Other options: Valentine Holmes, Robert Toia
Valentine Holmes lined up on the wing in Game 3 last year and comes straight back into the centres for the opening game of this year's series. His goal kicking, if nothing else, is as important as it gets for Queensland.

Robert Toia looks to be the next man up for Queensland. A star in the making, he has been one of the best over the opening ten weeks of the campaign for the Roosters.

Jack Howarth would have also featured prominently in this conversation if not for his current injury.

Verdict: Valentine Holmes, Selwyn Cobbo

Five-eighth

Incumbent: Tom Dearden
With Munster one of the long list of injuries for the Maroons last year, Tom Dearden took over in the number six jumper, and did a fairly solid job, even if the Maroons couldn't get over the line.

He has been in excellent form for the Cowboys as well, with eight try assists and three tries in nine games to start the year.

Key rival: Cameron Munster
Dearden may be the unluckiest player anywhere across the two states to miss out on a starting role for this year's series though, with Cameron Munster at his best once again for the Storm.

Removed from his injury issues, he already has double-digit try assists and has been a menace to just about every opposition team he has played with the ball in hand.

A strong defender and fierce competitor, he has the number six Maroon jumper for as long as he wants it.

Other options: Braydon Trindall
Braydon Trindall is a name that has been floated as a smokey for Billy Slater's bench. Certainly, his performances over the last 12 months have outshone teammate and former Dally M Medal winner Nicho Hynes.

Whether that's enough to get him a spot remains to be seen, but certainly, if injuries occur across Queensland's halves, he isn't a million miles away from selection.

Verdict: Cameron Munster

Halfback

Incumbent: Daly Cherry-Evans
Cherry-Evans comes into the series as Queensland captain, and the incumbent for the number seven jumper. You'd like to think he is a guarantee to retain it throughout the series for the sake of the Maroons, but he is anything but.

His form has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks alongside his Manly teammates, and it would be a foolish game to assume it had nothing to do with confirmation he will exit the Sea Eagles at the end of the year.

He will be picked for Game 1, but he needs to show something pretty quickly.

Key rival: Jamal Fogarty
Fogarty has been in fine form for the Raiders, guiding his team into the top four and stamping his authority as a player with one of the competition's best kicking games.

His injury last year saw the Raiders plummet down the table, and there is no surprise they are back to their best with him at the helm this year.

He has been signed as Cherry-Evans' replacement at the Sea Eagles next year, and if Slater decides a change is needed, exactly the same thing will be happening in camp Queensland.

Other options: Tom Dearden, Toby Sexton
Intriguingly, Dearden has been named at halfback this weekend for the Cowboys. That is ultimately the position he will wind up playing, but he may be not quite ready for that level of responsibility in State of Origin.

Toby Sexton is the other Queensland-eligible player in the mix, and has been in fine form for the Bulldogs, who sit at the top of the NRL ladder as the Origin period approaches. In his nine games, he has six try assists, but maybe more impressively, eight forced dropouts already to his name, working beautifully in tandem with Matt Burton.

Verdict: Daly Cherry-Evans

Props

Incumbents: Moeaki Fotuaika and Felise Kaufusi
Injuries were a consistent them for the Maroons heading into last year's decider, and that ultimately forced Moeaki Fotuaika and Felise Kaufusi into the starting side at prop.

Fotuaika is in contention for a run again this year, albeit probably not in the run-on 13, while Kaufusi has Origin experience, but little else going for him when it comes to papers on the selection table.

Key rival: Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
Fa'asuamaleaui missed the entirety of last year's series - and the NRL season - with an ACL injury. One of the best props in the game, the Gold Coast captain has made 164 metres per game this year and walks straight back into the Queensland Origin side.

Whether it's at prop or lock remais to be seen though, although we will pick him at prop.

Other options: Lindsay Collins, Reuben Cotter, Patrick Carrigan, Corey Horsburgh
Lindsay Collins is the biggest variable here for the Maroons. He returns in Round 11 for the Sydney Roosters, but whether one game is enough to convince Billy Slater that he is ready for Origin is up for dispute.

We are going to assume the answer is no, with Reuben Cotter and his tremendous work rate the other player likely to join Fa'asuamaleaui in the starting side.

Patrick Carrigan has been playing prop for the Broncos in one of those strange off-season positional moves that's hard to ascertain whether it's working or not yet, but will be better used elsewhere by the Maroons, while Corey Horsburgh has also put his hand up with excellent form for the high-flying Canberra Raiders.

Verdict: Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, Reuben Cotter

Hooker

Incumbent: Harry Grant
Grant is the incumbent dummy half, and with good reason. While he has played a one-two punch with Ben Hunt in recent years, the Bronco being injured means Grant will need to play more minutes.

It's not a great year for it given Grant's match fitness will be down from his own recent sideline stint, but he is certainly up to the task as the game's best dummy half by a considerable distance.

Key rival: Reed Mahoney
Known for his ability to niggle and get under the skin of opposition players, Mahoney has been strong for the Bulldogs this season, but is still a considerable distance behind Grant when it comes to the fight to wear Queensland's number nine jumper.

Other options: N/A
There realistically are no other options for the Queensland number nine jersey, and Billy Slater will be sweating on a clean injury run through the series.

Verdict: Harry Grant

Second-row

Incumbents: Reuben Cotter and Kurt Capewell
Injuries again forced Reuben Cotter onto the edge, and Kurt Capewell into the side for Game 3 of last year's series.

Neither player should start on the edge this year.

Key rival: Tom Gilbert
Tom Gilbert is a walk up starter for the Maroons as he returns from a long injury lay off. He originally suffered a shoulder injury in the 2023 series, and then missed all of 2024 with an ACL injury sustained during the pre-season.

One of the game's hardest workers, he has taken that mentality to the edge of the park now, where he also adds plenty of ball-playing and footwork.

Other options: Jaydn Su'A, Jeremiah Nanai, Beau Fermor
We have Gilbert being joined in the second-row by Jaydn Su'A, but there is no guarantee he earns a recall after being dropped for Game 3 of last year's series.

Su'A has been in tremendous form for the Dragons though, and seems the most logical option.

Jeremiah Nanai will be in the side, but likely not starting, which means it comes down to Su'A against Beau Fermor for a starting spot. On Origin experience, and other factors, Su'A should get the nod.

Verdict: Tom Gilbert and Jaydn Su'A

Lock

Incumbent: Patrick Carrigan
As mentioned before, Patrick Carrigan has been playing prop for the Broncos, but should feature at lock for the Maroons as he has done in recent campaigns.

Easily one of the game's most consistent forwards, he gets through enormous minutes, and shouldn't have a spot in this side in doubt, potentially for his entire career.

Key rival: Reuben Cotter
Cotter is the key rival here because ultimately, if he isn't selected at prop, this is where he will be selected. Not too much more to it than that. The three starting middle options should be a lock for the Maroons in whichever way they are picked.

Other options: J'maine Hopgood, Corey Horsburgh, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
Like Cotter, Fa'asuamaleaui is listed here because he may be picked at lock.

The other options to play lock are Corey Horsburgh, who is also an option at prop, and J'maine Hopgood, who is going to play State of Origin at some point - it just may not be this year.

He has struggled to find his best in a wildly underperforming Parramatta outfit.

Verdict: Patrick Carrigan

Interchange

Incumbent: Ben Hunt, Lindsay Collins, Jeremiah Nanai, Kalyn Ponga
The Maroons ran two incumbents off the bench in Game 3 of last year's series. We have neither Kalyn Ponga or Ben Hunt set to feature this year though.

Ponga is the closest, but after missing out at fullback, he also misses out here.

Jeremiah Nanai should retain his place on the bench, while Collins' spot may come down to his Round 11 return from injury, but we are going to overlook him for Game 1, in the knowledge he will likely find his way back into the side for Game 2 or 3 given his past excellent Origin performances.

Other options: Tom Dearden, Corey Horsburgh, Moeaki Fotuaika, Jeremiah Nanai, Kalyn Ponga, Trent Loiero, Beau Fermor, Jye Gray, Kurt Capewell, Felise Kaufusi, Max Plath, Jai Arrow
With Nanai locking up one spot, it leaves three places on the pine up for dispute in the Queensland side.

We are going with two middle third options in Corey Horsburgh and Moeaki Fotuaika, who have both earnt their spots through excellent form.

Trent Loiero is another option in the middle, and Jai Arrow wouldn't let his state down, but the duo are a touch behind.

In the utility role, Tom Dearden gets the run. He won't be able to play hooker as Ben Hunt has done, but his running game should make him a big threat around the ruck against tired defenders.

Verdict: Tom Dearden, Jeremiah Nanai, Corey Horsburgh, Moeaki Fotuaika

Predicted Queensland Maroons team for Game 1

1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
2. Xavier Coates
3. Selwyn Cobbo
4. Valentine Holmes
5. Murray Taulagi
6. Cameron Munster
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Reuben Cotter
9. Harry Grant
10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
11. Jaydn Su'A
12. Thomas Gilbert
13. Patrick Carrigan
Interchange
14. Tom Dearden
15. Corey Horsburgh
16. Moeaki Fotuaika
17. Jeremiah Nanai

18th man: Kalyn Ponga
Extended squad*: Trent Loiero, Jye Gray, Beau Fermor

* - Extended squad players are all on a club bye in Round 12.