Number up: Top eight turnover, surprises and who wins what in 2026?

The 2026 NRL season is shaping up to be one of the most even in recent memory, with a number of premiership contenders pushing for that extra inch that could separate them from the rest.

History tells us there will be at least one surprise. But where will it come from and who will it be?

We will take a deep dive into what this century has told us about where the premiership winner will come from, how the top eight might shape up, and what the chances are of the 2025 stragglers making a decent jump this season.

We will look at a few major categories, beginning with the top eight.

Watch this week's full Loose Carry episode with Ryan Hoffman, Lee Addison, Darren Parkin and host Phoenix Trinidad here.

Top eigh tturnover
Going back to the year 2000, there have been at least two changes to the top eight from the previous year in every season bar 2002 (which saw just one).

The last four seasons have seen three changes in each of those years. Last year we had the minor premier Canberra (9th) and the eventual premier Brisbane (12th) both come from outside the top eight.

The Warriors were the third side to make it having missed the finals in 2024, and they spent much of the season in the mix for a top four spot. The three sides to fall out last year were Newcastle, North Queensland and Manly.

History tells us to expect at least two changes this year. The Dolphins would be largely tipped as the most likely non finalist to jump in, but Wayne Bennett's Rabbitohs must also be considered.

Could the Sea Eagles find the necessary consistency to jump back in? Time will tell.

Wooden spoon
The last 14 years dating back to 2012 has seen a degree of consistency when it comes to the wooden spoon.

10 of those 14 wooden spoons have been won by just three clubs. (Newcastle 4, Parramatta 3, Wests Tigers 3).

We've seen back-to-back wooden spoons won on six occasions indicating the challenge of rising up the table from such depths.

The last wooden spooner to play finals the following year was the Eels back in 2019. Only four other teams have bounced from a spoon to the finals in one season this century, and three of those instances come with an asterisk.

They were the Bulldogs in 2003 (Lost all their points having won 15 games), the Storm in 2010 (14 wins but couldn't accumulate points) and the Sharks in 2015 (mass player suspensions through ASADA).

So the Knights will find it difficult under Justin Holbrook to find the immediate spike to return to finals football.

The positive stat from the stragglers can be found when you look collectively at the bottom four.

At least one bottom four side has climbed into the top six in six of the last eight seasons. (In 2023, two teams did it).

From last year's bottom four of the Knights, Titans, Rabbitohs and Dragons it would appear on face value that the Bunnies are the best chance of being this year's team.

Premiers
Only four premiers this century have come from outside the top eight (Including the Broncos last year).

Those teams were the Panthers in 2003 (12th the year before), the Tigers in 2005 (9th), the Roosters in 2013 (13th) and the Broncos in 2025 (12th).

It goes largely without saying that the strong sides will remain in contention for an extended period.

The Broncos falling out of the top eight in 2024 had mitigating factors, such as the mental impact of their Grand Final loss from such a strong position against the Panthers the previous season, some unrest and eventual coaching changes as well as perhaps the poor timing of their Vegas trip given the other examples mentioned.

17 of the 26 premiers this century finished top four the previous season.

Eight of the last nine premiers have finished top two the season before and made at least a preliminary final in that previous season.

Overall history tells us the premier will likely come from the Broncos, Raiders, Storm and Bulldogs, but the Panthers and Roosters will have other ideas.

We should also expect at least two changes to the top eight and one surprise packet to emerge from the lower reaches of the table.