The Newcastle Knights come into the NRL finals as one of the good news stories in the competition, and will be looking to continue their red-hot run of momentum when they tackle the inconsistent Canberra Raiders in the second elimination final on Sunday afternoon.
Not enough has been made of just how good the Knights have been in recent times.
This is a side who at one stage this season looked resigned to a bottom-four finish with very little chance of playing finals football. By all reports, Adam O'Brien's head was about to roll too.
The coach had asked for a contract extension and been knocked back by the club - at that stage, it seemed like the right call as well.
But how the tables have turned.
Kalyn Ponga has been on a special run of form, the entire team have turned things around and instead of finishing in the bottom four, the Knights won nine straight to not just make the finals, but sweep their way all the way up to fifth spot on the table and claim a home elimination final.
They have played their last two home games - against the Sharks and Rabbitohs - in front of sell out crowds, and it'll be the same story on Sunday when they run out against the green machine.
The Raiders, on the other hand, qualify for the finals despite having the competition's fourth-worst for and against.
That can be viewed one of two ways. Either, 'wow, how did they make the finals playing that poorly?' or 'wow, they must be gritty to grind out wins.'
Unfortunately, the Raiders have been blown out of the water too many times this season by strong sides, and it explains not only their for and against, but a miserable end to the season. Despite at one stage looking as if they would fight for a top-four finish, Ricky Stuart's side crumbled their way down the table and needed a result to go their way in the final round to hang onto eighth spot.
As my colleague Dan Nichols described it, they have qualified for the finals by default, and it's tough to see them doing anything of note, but, you just never know.
September, as they say, is a completely new season.
Team news
Newcastle Knights
1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Adam Elliott
Interchange: 14. Kurt Mann 15. Daniel Saifiti 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Mathew Croker
Reserves: 18. Adam Clune 20. Dylan Lucas
The big news for the Knights is the return of Kalyn Ponga. The star fullback injured his shoulder a fortnight ago in a game which clinched the home final for Newcastle against the Cronulla Sharks. He missed the Round 27 game against the St George Illawarra Dragons, but returns for this one.
He won't be 100 per cent, but the stakes are too high, and his form too good, to consider leaving out as a precaution. There is no point saving him for next week if there is no next week.
The Knights also welcome back the rest of their rested troop - Dane Gagai, Jackson Hastings (was injured), Phoenix Crossland, Leo Thompson, Tyson Frizell, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Kurt Mann all make their returns.
Canberra Raiders
1. Jordan Rapana 2. James Schiller 3. Jack Wighton 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Nick Cotric 6. Matt Frawley 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Ata Mariota 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Hohepa Puru
Interchange: 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Trey Mooney
Reserves: 18. Jarrod Croker 19. Albert Hopoate
Not too much in the way of changes for the Raiders ahead of this elimination final, but Sebastian Kris - who has been one of the club's best across multiple positions this season - joins Josh Papalii and Corey Horsburgh on the sidelines after being suspended for a spear tackle that saw him sent off last week.
He is replaced out wide by James Schiller.
Regular season matches
Round 4: Newcastle Knights 24 defeat Canberra Raiders 14 at McDonald Jones Stadium
At home, early in the season on a Sunday afternoon, the Knights were expected to put up a good showing for their fans, and the scoreboard ultimately flatted the green machine here.
Five tries for the Knights brought only two conversions, with the Raiders crossing for two tries in the first 25 minutes, but not troubling the scorers afterwards.
Round 22: Canberra Raiders 6 defeated by Newcastle Knights 28 at GIO Stadium
This game was set to the back drop of the Knights looking to continue their incredible run to the finals, and the Raiders looking to stop their dramatic slide out.
In the end, the red-hot Knights had the game over as a contest by halftime, and capped it off directly afterwards. Tries to Kalyn Ponga, Greg Marzhew and Dominic Young were followed a minute after the break by a Tyson Gamble try that had the Knights leading 26-0.
Jordan Rapana scored for Canberra, but it meant next to nothing in a one-sided contest.
Keys to the game
Where do Canberra find metres from?
The Raiders heading into the finals without two of their best forwards is a major blow.
Josh Papalii is done for the season with a bicep injury, while Corey Horsburgh will be only able to return if they make the grand final after he was hit with a suspension.
That means Joseph Tapine, who will play big minutes again, has to pick up even more of the slack than usual, but he can't do it alone against a barnstorming Knights' pack.
He needs support.
That will start at the start of sets. Jordan Rapana, James Schiller and Nick Cotric need to find big metres to get things going, and the likes of Ata Mariota, Hohepa Puru and Emre Guler all need career games if they are going to go with the home side.
Kalyn Ponga's shoulder
This is the single biggest factor for every game the Knights play for the remainder of this season.
He has been rushed back from the injury - of that there is little doubt. AC joint injuries can be tricky to deal with at the best of times, and often have a greater chance of reoccurrence in the weeks immediately following a return.
Ponga, who was strapped heavily at training during the week and by all reports will need to be needled to play, needs to play 80 minutes or close enough to it if the Knights are to win.
That means his shoulder has to hold up.
It would be devastating for the Knights if he can't complete the 80 minutes, but it's a point that must be discussed because of the weight it holds over the clash.
Jack Wighton's role
It has been somewhat strange through the second half of the season to see the Raiders regularly playing without Jack Wighton in the halves.
It's of course a sight the club will have to get used to - he won't be there next year - but in the midst of a push for the finals, Wighton playing anywhere but the halves has been an odd one.
He has been named in the centres to tackle the Knights in this elimination final, and while it's a position he has played at international and State of Origin level, his form in recent weeks illustrates he simply doesn't have the pace and agility for the position anymore.
That means he will be a target in defence for the Knights and Kalyn Ponga.
The form of Ponga illustrates that he could rip this game open by targetting Wighton, and given there is little to no attacking benefit of Wighton playing in the centres, he could well be the deciding factor here - and not in a good way.
If he plays his best game to date in the centres, then it of course could be a game-changer against a Knights' defence that still has fragility about it.
Prediction
It's hard to see this one going any other way than a Knights victory - and a big one.
The Raiders are down troops in the forwards, have lacked points and have been blown out far too often this season for a team who look like causing problems in the finals.
Of course, the Knights still have vulnerability, but their last nine weeks should put most doubts to rest.
The biggest issue they might face is Kalyn Ponga's shoulder not seeing out the 80 minutes, but even then, they would go into a clash in front of a sell out crowd at home as heavy favourites.
Knights by 16.
Key game information: Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders, NRL elimination final
Kick-off: 4:05pm, Saturday, September 10
Venue: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
TV: Fox Sports, Channel 9
Online: Kayo Sports, Foxtel App, 9 Now
Betting: Knights $1.18, Raiders $4.80
Referee: Ashley Klein
Overall record: Played 56, Raiders 29, Knights 25, Drawn 2
Record in finals: Never played
What happens to the winner and loser?
The loser, being an elimination final, is straight out.
The winner, on the other hand, will advance to face the New Zealand Warriors on the road next Saturday, with the winner of that game to move to the preliminary finals against the Brisbane Broncos in the Queensland capital the following week.
Zero Tackle will run a live blog, scores and stats of the game in our match centre from 4:05pm (AEST) on Sunday afternoon.
