A wild weekend in the NRL has left the final month looking different to what it did seven days ago, and it could be injuries at the Brisbane Broncos, combined with that Round 22 shock loss, which costs the Canberra Raiders the minor premiership.
For the first time since starting this series of articles eight weeks to go, we are making changes to our tipping.
With a couple of hamstrings going snap at the Brisbane Broncos, we now expect them to fall short against the Dolphins this week and the Melbourne Storm in the final round of the season.
That win for the Storm could potentially be enough for them to draw level with the Raiders, who we only have winning one more game. That predicted win comes against the Wests Tigers in Round 26 to go with their bye this weekend.
On for and against, that would mean the Storm claim top spot.
The losses for the Broncos have dire consequences for their own run home, and they will now need to win one of those two games, or beat the North Queensland Cowboys in Townsville, to claim a top-eight berth.
The weekend of almost expected results has otherwise limited the changes, although the Cronulla Sharks' loss to the St George Illawarra Dragons has dropped them dangerously close to losing a home elimination final. An easy run home should be enough to save the men from the Shire, though.
As always, we will start with this weekend's tips.
Penrith Panthers to defeat Melbourne Storm
New Zealand Warriors to defeat St George Illawarra Dragons
Sydney Roosters to defeat Canterbury Bulldogs
Cronulla Sharks to defeat Gold Coast Titans
Brisbane Broncos lose to The Dolphins
South Sydney Rabbitohs lose to Parramatta Eels
Wests Tigers lose to Manly Sea Eagles
North Queensland Cowboys to defeat Newcastle Knights
Here is the run home for every NRL team, now with added best and worst-case scenarios.
1. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 1st, 38 points, + 168
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 24: Bye
Round 25: Penrith Panthers (away - Mudgee)
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (away)
The Raiders have been knocked down a peg on our provisional ladder thanks to an extra win for the Storm.
The good news for Raiders fans is that we have them losing two of their final three - against the Panthers and Dolphins.
If they can win one of those, then odds are, with their bye adding two points this week, that they will still win the minor premiership, but they will be ruing that Round 22 loss to the St George Illawarra Dragons.
Given their bye this week, the worst they can do is third. The Raiders are the only team locked in for a double chance in the finals with a month to go.
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Down one spot
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 3rd
2. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 2nd, 36 points, + 248
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 25: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (away)
The Storm have a tricky run-in, but we are expecting them to pick up an extra win thanks to the Brisbane Broncos' injuries in Round 27.
That all said, three wins could be - and we think it will be - enough for them to deliver the minor premiership to the Victorian capital.
If things go properly pear-shaped and they don't win another game, they could still drop as far as seventh spot on the table, but given their for and against, their realistic worst finish is fifth.
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Up one spot
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 7th
3. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 3rd, 36 points, + 140
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 25: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (home)
The Bulldogs took care of business against the Warriors in the wet weather on the weekend, but that Round 22 loss to the Tigers will still likely cost them a top-two spot.
They can still win the minor premiership, but would need to be very good from here on out, while, like the Storm, they could drop as far as seventh, but likely wouldn't go further than fifth.
We have them losing this week and again in Round 25.
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: No change
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 7th
4. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 4th, 31 points, + 119
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 25: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Wollongong)
The Penrith Panthers have made their way into the top four for the first time this season after what has been an incredible run of form.
They ended any idea of the shakes over the weekend by flogging the Knights, but now their run to the finish line gets a whole lot tougher.
The Storm, Raiders and Bulldogs in back-to-back-to-back weeks. We have them winning all but the Bulldogs game on the run in, though, and that will be enough to secure a top-four position and second chance in the finals.
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: No change
Best-case scenario: 2nd
Worst-case scenario: 10th
5. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 5th, 30 points, + 8
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 25: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
The Warriors have now lost three on the trot, although the game against Canterbury on the weekend, we had never expected them to win.
Their run does get simpler to the end of the season, but their finish just outside the top four likely still requires the Auckland-based side to win their next three.
They can certainly lose a grip on a home elimination final with more losses, and their spot in the finals is no guarantee either.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Up one spot
Best-case scenario: 3rd
Worst-case scenario: 12th
6. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 6th, 28 points, + 104
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: The Dolphins (home)
Round 25: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
Has the Broncos' season just gone up in smoke - or hamstring injuries rather?
Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam, Selwyn Cobbo. All gone.
We have changed two of their tips for the run home, being this week against the Dolphins, and again in Round 27. That could cost them a spot in the finals if other games also go the way we expect.
Win one of them, or manage to beat the Cowboys in Townsville, and the Broncos are still likely to play finals footy.
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Down two spots
Best-case scenario: 3rd
Worst-case scenario: 13th
7. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 7th, 28 points, + 35
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 24: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The impact of a loss to the Dragons over the weekend could yet be enormous for Cronulla, but given Brisbane's injuries, they actually benefit by going up a spot at this stage on the predicted ladder.
Their bye between now and the end of the season helps, as does their soft run in where we have them winning their next two, but they need to be a whole lot better than they were on Saturday to qualify.
The loss to the Dragons also hits their top four chances for six. It's still mathematically more than possible, but they'll need a lot to go right.
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Down one spot
Best-case scenario: 3rd
Worst-case scenario: 12th
8. The Dolphins
Current position: 8th, 26 points, + 119
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 25: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
Whether the Dolphins needed a reality check or not over the weekend, they certainly got one, conceding more than 60 points to the Roosters.
Despite that, we now expect them to get the better of the Broncos this weekend, and provided they can also take care of business in their final two games, that will be enough to see them sneak into the top eight for the first time.
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Up two spots
Best-case scenario: 4th
Worst-case scenario: 16th
9. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 9th, 26 points, + 72
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 25: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Perhaps the best thing the Roosters did over the weekend was give their for and against an enormous bump in the right direction.
They have a tough run to the finish line with games against the Bulldogs, which we have tipped a win in, and the Storm, but enough winnable contests to qualify for the finals if they are good enough.
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 4th
Worst-case scenario: 16th
10. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 10th, 24 points, - 10
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 25: The Dolphins (home)
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (home)
The Sea Eagles had an as expected difficult night out on Friday against the Raiders, and are fast running out of chances if they want to be in the mix for finals.
We have them winning three of their final four, only falling short against the Dragons on the road in Round 26, but even that leaves them two points shy of our predicted top eight.
They are getting into 'needing results to work for them' territory, but there is still plenty of water to pass under the bridge. What is clear is that they must beat the Tigers this weekend.
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 4th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
11. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 11th, 22 points, - 50
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (home)
The Dragons have caught late-season fire, and while they'll need a miracle to sneak into the top eight, the victories over Canberra and Cronulla in the last fortnight should be enough to avoid any chat of the wooden spoon.
If they can keep winning all the way to the end and wind up on 30 points, then just maybe, if other results go their way, a slim chance of finals footy remains.
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Up two spots
Best-case scenario: 5th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
12. Wests Tigers
Current position: 12th, 22 points, - 121
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: Manly Sea Eagles (home - Allianz Stadium)
Round 25: North Queensland Cowboys (home - Leichhardt)
Round 26: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Fresh off their bye, the Tigers will begin their final month of the season in the same spot as the Dragons above them, albeit with a worse for and against.
They'll need four big wins, and results to go their way, to stand a chance.
We have them winning two on the run in - against the Cowboys and Titans.
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Down one spot
Best-case scenario: 5th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
13. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 13th, 20 points, - 152
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 25: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Newcastle Knights (home)
The Eels have kicked a little further clear of the bottom with their win over the Cowboys on the weekend, but they certainly aren't out of wooden spoon danger yet.
A win against South Sydney this weekend would go a long way towards locking that in. We have them beating the Knights in the final round as well, but being unable to escape the bottom four.
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 7th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
14. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 14th, 19 points, - 178
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 24: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 25: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 27: Bye
Mathematically, the Cowboys can sneak into the finals, but it's bordering on miracle territory.
Realistically, Todd Payten is a man in trouble. A loss to the Eels over the weekend showed a coach under pressure and a team misfiring.
Escaping the bottom four is likely to be the bigger challenge for the Cowboys, although a bye in the final week helps their cause there.
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Down one spot
Best-case scenario: 8th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
15. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 15th, 18 points, - 152
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 25: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (away)
The Knights face a tricky enough run home that we can't find a way for them to win a game between now and the end of the season.
Granted, that hasn't changed for some weeks.
To escape the bottom four, they will likely need to find at least three wins from their final four, while avoiding the wooden spoon could be relying on the Titans having a similarly challenging finish.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 8th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
16. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 16th, 18 points, - 195
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 24: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 25: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (away)
A shaky win over the Titans on the weekend means the Rabbitohs are two points clear of the wooden spoon with a bye to come.
That should be enough to avoid the dreaded last-place finish, although it's anything but a guarantee.
The injury-plagued outfit will be hopeful of a win or two over the final couple of weeks as well, with players starting to return, although we haven't tipped it that way.
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 8th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
17. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 17th, 16 points, - 155
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 24: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 25: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 26: The Dolphins (away)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
The Titans' loss to the Rabbitohs means they will need to win at least two of their final four to avoid the wooden spoon.
With a tricky run of fixtures and their own form getting in the way of saying much positive, the Titans now appear locked in to finish at the bottom.
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 10th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
Predicted final ladder
1. Melbourne Storm - 42 points
2. Canberra Raiders - 42 points
3. Canterbury Bulldogs - 40 points
4. Penrith Panthers - 37 points
5. New Zealand Warriors - 36 points
6. Cronulla Sharks - 34 points
7. The Dolphins - 32 points
8. Sydney Roosters - 32 points
9. Brisbane Broncos - 30 points
10. Manly Sea Eagles - 30 points
11. St George Illawarra Dragons - 26 points
12. Wests Tigers - 26 points
13. North Queensland Cowboys - 25 points
14. Parramatta Eels - 24 points
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs - 20 points
16. Newcastle Knights - 18 points
17. Gold Coast Titans - 16 points
Predicted Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1:Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers at AAMI Park
Qualifying final 2: Canberra Raiders vs Canterbury Bulldogs at GIO Stadium
Elimination final 1: New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters at Mt Smart Stadium
Elimination final 2: Cronulla Sharks vs The Dolphins at Shark Park
