A host of upsets over the weekend have added to an already chaotic run home to the end of the regular season, with the make-up of the finals still a long way from locked in ahead of Round 23.
The key upsets during Round 22 were the downing of the New Zealand Warriors by the Dolphins, the Canberra Raiders by the St George Illawarra Dragons, and the Wests Tigers' failure to knock over the Canterbury Bulldogs.
The losses for the Raiders and Bulldogs even out the loss in Round 20 for the Melbourne Storm, when they fell short against the Manly Sea Eagles, turning the top three to their original spots when we kicked this series off with eight rounds to go.
The Warriors' second straight loss, however, sends them out of the top four in our end-of-season prediction, with the Penrith Panthers now expected to qualify with a double chance come the start of the finals.
Elsewhere, the Sydney Roosters taking care of business against the Manly Sea Eagles hands them a buffer in the top eight, while the Titans are still our expected wooden spooners.
We are still holding firm on our current tips through to the end of the season, although there certainly is temptation to change some games around the Storm without Jahrome Hughes, the Bulldogs, given their form, and the Warriors, although we only have them winning three of their last five.
Here are our Round 23 tips.
Melbourne Storm to defeat Brisbane Broncos
Newcastle Knights lose to Penrith Panthers
Canberra Raiders to defeat Manly Sea Eagles
St George Illawarra Dragons lose to Cronulla Sharks
The Dolphins lose to Sydney Roosters
Canterbury Bulldogs to defeat New Zealand Warriors
Gold Coast Titans lose to South Sydney Rabbitohs
Parramatta Eels defeat North Queensland Cowboys
This is the full run home as it stands.
1. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 1st, 36 points, + 152
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 23: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 24: Bye
Round 25: Penrith Panthers (away - Mudgee)
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (away)
The Raiders suffered a shock loss in torrential rain against the Dragons over the weekend.
Given the Storm and Bulldogs have also lost a game in recent weeks, it means they hang onto the same predicted margin as they did at the end of the State of Origin period.
We still have them falling short against Penrith and the Dolphins on the run home, but they run into a desperate Manly this week in a critical contest. It's in Canberra, though.
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Nil
2. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 2nd, 34 points, + 228
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 23: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 24: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 25: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (away)
It's crunch time for the Melbourne Storm. They face a tricky run to the finish line without Jahrome Hughes, and that starts this week with two games against the Broncos in the final five rounds.
We have them backing up their road win over the Eels last week with a victory this week, and winning against the Bulldogs and Roosters on the run in, losing their other two games.
If they can find a win in one of those games, though, they could knock the Raiders out of the top spot.
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Up one spot
3. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 3rd, 34 points, 34 points, + 122
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 23: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 24: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 25: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (home)
The Bulldogs need to get back on the cart quickly after their horror show on Sunday afternoon against the Wests Tigers.
They clash with the reeling Warriors this week, though, and then the Roosters after that in a couple of crunch games.
Granted, we have them dropping the game to the Roosters, as well as the Storm after that and still hanging onto a spot in the top four, only missing a home qualifying final on for and against.
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Down one spot
4. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 4th, 30 points, + 26
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 23: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 24: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 25: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
It has happened suddenly, but the Warriors don't look like they know how to win anymore.
Running out of puff is one thing, but the wheels have fallen off over the last two weeks with losses to the Gold Coast Titans and Dolphins.
We expect them to lose this week as well before righting the ship over the following three weeks, but if they can't, they could drop well down the top eight and, in the worst-case scenario, even miss the finals.
Already, we have last week's loss costing them a spot in the top four when it's all said and done.
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Down two spots
5. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 5th, 29 points, + 83
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 23: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 24: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 25: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Wollongong)
A shaky golden point win over the Titans won't do much for confidence, but the Panthers were at their best in the first half and have been on a serious run, winning all of their last four.
The men from the foot of the mountains should pick up another easy win this week, and while they have a tricky run home, we reckon they'll come up with wins against everyone apart from the Bulldogs, which should now be enough to get them into the top four.
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Up one spot
6. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 6th, 28 points, + 124
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 23: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 24: The Dolphins (home)
Round 25: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
The Broncos' biggest battle could well be themselves.
Two weeks ago, they somehow lost to Parramatta. Last week, they thumped the injury-plagued Rabbitohs.
The run gets tougher on the way in. Two games against the Storm - which we expect them to split one apiece, losing this week - are joined by the Dolphins, Cowboys and Knights.
We've got them winning three of five, falling short against the Cowboys on the road as well as this week.
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Nil
7. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 7th, 28 points, + 43
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 23: St George Illawarra Dragons (away - Kogarah)
Round 24: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Sharks, as we have pointed out previously, have been kissed by their run to the finish line. A big win over the Cowboys in the torrential rain over the weekend keeps them on track for a home elimination final, and with a better for and against than the Warriors, they are now all the way up to fifth on our table.
We expect them to beat everyone other than the Bulldogs on the way home, though. A local derby is no guarantee this weekend against a Dragons side who knocked over the Raiders last weekend, so it's anything but a guarantee.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Up one spot
8. The Dolphins
Current position: 8th, 26 points, + 171
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 23: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 24: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 25: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
The Dolphins have a tricky run to the end of the season as it is, and now have to do most of it - if not all of it - without star English centre Herbie Farnworth.
The Redcliffe-based outfit came away with a critical two points over the Warriors on the weekend, and while we are holding firm on tips, they will beat the Titans and Raiders on the run home, they'll need to win both of those and find a win in their next three to challenge for the top eight.
The game against the Roosters this weekend is basically a four-point swing, though.
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Up one spot
9. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 9th, 24 points, + 20
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 23: The Dolphins (away)
Round 24: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 25: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
A huge win over the Sea Eagles on the weekend leaves the Roosters in the driver's seat for the final place in the top eight, but they will have to be very good from here to the end of the season.
Playing above expectations has been a hallmark of the Roosters' season, and given we have them winning four of their remaining five - only dropping to the Storm on the road in Round 26 - that's going to need to continue.
They do have a two-point buffer in our predicted table to the Sea Eagles and Dolphins, but for and against will make it tricky for them.
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Nil
10. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 10th, 24 points, + 6
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 23: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 24: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 25: The Dolphins (home)
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (home)
The Sea Eagles' loss to the Roosters will make things exceedingly difficult when it comes to finding a spot in the top eight.
Granted, we do have them winning three of their last five and falling just two points short, but an upset against the Raiders this weekend would be a major help.
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Down one spot
11. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 11th, 20 points, - 58
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 23: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 24: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (home)
The Dragons' shock win over the Raiders gives them the smallest hope of qualifying for the top eight, but they'd need to win five from five and have results go their way, not the way of this prediction.
We currently have the mark for the top eight being 32 points, although convention says 30 is enough. The Dragons' for and against is another problem.
So too is their run home, starting with a local derby against the Sharks this week, who they simply haven't been able to beat in recent times.
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Up one spot
12. Wests Tigers
Current position: 12th, 20 points, - 121
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 23: Bye
Round 24: Manly Sea Eagles (home - Allianz Stadium)
Round 25: North Queensland Cowboys (home - Leichhardt)
Round 26: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Like the Dragons, the Tigers are still a mathematical chance of qualifying for the finals, but would need results to go their way even more given their shoddy for and against.
The joint-venture has the bye this weekend and then would need four big wins to stand a chance.
We do have them knocking off the Cowboys at home and the Titans away during the final weeks. That would be enough to avoid the bottom four, which is certainly something.
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Up one spot
13. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 13th, 19 points, - 177
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 23: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 24: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 25: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 27: Bye
It's tough to find any positives for the Cowboys after they were hammered by the Cronulla Sharks over the weekend.
The Townsville-based side has the bye in the final round and will be starting Mad Monday ahead of the rest of the competition. Of that there is no doubt.
Whether they can escape the bottom four will depend on how many wins they can find. We have them beating the Cowboys and Knights, but it's now questionable whether that will be enough.
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Down one spot
14. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 14th, 18 points, - 116
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 23: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 24: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 25: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (away)
Two points from the bye over the weekend have allowed the Knights to rise up to 14th on the table, but a tricky run home makes any further progression look unlikely.
We have them finishing second last without another win.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
15. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 15th, 18 points, - 153
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 23: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 24: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 25: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Newcastle Knights (home)
The return of Mitchell Moses has certainly helped Parramatta, with the blue and gold beating the Broncos and then pushing the Jahrome Hughes-less Storm all the way to the finish line.
We still have them winning three of their final five - against the Cowboys, Rabbitohs and Knights - and that should be just enough to push them to the brink of avoiding the top four.
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Down one spot
16. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 16th, 16 points, - 153
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 23: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 24: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 25: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 26: The Dolphins (away)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
The Titans have shown signs of life in recent weeks. It's not enough for us to change our tips of a losing run to the finish line, but a decimated South Sydney outfit this weekend could be their best shot.
A win or two over the final weeks could be enough to avoid the spoon.
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
17. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 17th, 16 points, - 197
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 23: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 24: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 25: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (away)
It's not quite a spoon bowl this weekend, but it's not far away. We have the Rabbitohs winning, but a loss will certainly create plenty of pressure during the final weeks to find a win somewhere and kick clear of the dreaded last-place prize.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
Predicted final ladder
1. Canberra Raiders - 42 points
2. Melbourne Storm - 40 points
3. Canterbury Bulldogs - 40 points
4. Penrith Panthers - 37 points
5. Cronulla Sharks - 36 points
6. New Zealand Warriors - 36 points
7. Brisbane Broncos - 34 points
8. Sydney Roosters - 32 points
9. The Dolphins - 30 points
10. Manly Sea Eagles - 30 points
11. Wests Tigers - 26 points
12. North Queensland Cowboys - 25 points
13. St George Illawarra Dragons - 24 points
14. Parramatta Eels - 24 points
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs - 20 points
16. Newcastle Knights - 18 points
17. Gold Coast Titans - 16 points
Predicted Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1:Canberra Raiders vs Penrith Panthers at GIO Stadium
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs at AAMI Park
Elimination final 1: Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters at Shark Park
Elimination final 2: New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos at Mt Smart Stadium
