It may have been the shortest off-season in NRL history, but damn it's been a long wait for the NRL to return. We slowly return to post-COVID normality, we've got crowds, the bubble is gone, stars in new colours, there's a lot to like about the return of the NRL.
The Rabbitohs are early season favourites for a premiership while sides like the Dragons and Tigers are tipped to finish at the other end of the table. Can Melbourne back it up, or can the Panthers go one better? Will Brisbane show some improvement? Who's going to win the Dally M? Can the Titans make the finals? And what the hell is Cameron Smith doing in 2021?
There's a lot to be answered, but footy is back, and that's the first step to getting the answers we crave.
Melbourne Storm vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs
AAMI Park, 8:05pm, Thursday March 11
Team News: Reimis Smith and George Jennings make up a new right edge with Suliasi Vunivalu departed and Brenko Lee injured. Harry Grant and Dale Finucane are out, with Brandon Smith starting at hooker and Nelson Asofa-Solomona at lock. Chris Lewis and Tui Kamikamica are on the bench.
Josh Mansour makes his club debut on the right wing, while Jacob Host has won the race for the left edge back-row role. Benji Marshall and Jai Arrow are named on the bench.
Prediction: What a match up to start the year, last year's premiers up against this season's early favourites. Melbourne will play at home in front of a crowd for the first time in 537 days, though will do so without some big names. Cameron Smith, Suliasi Vunivalu and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui have departed, while Dale Finucane and Harry Grant will miss the early rounds through injury.
South Sydney on the other hand, look red hot after their Charity Shield demolition. They've only lost Bailey Sironen and Corey Allan from their Preliminary Final side, and add in Latrell Mitchell, Campbell Graham, Josh Mansour, Jai Arrow and Benji Marshall. However, history isn't on their side. Craig Bellamy has never lost a Round 1 in his 18 seasons at the Storm, South Sydney have never won in Melbourne despite 16 attempts, and Wayne Bennett is 10 from 37 against Bellamy. History isn't everything, but a Munster masterclass will earn the Storm a win in front of a massive home crowd. Melbourne by 2.
Newcastle Knights vs. Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
McDonald Jones Stadium, 6:00pm, Friday March 12
Team News: Hymel Hunt is still out with a niggling hamstring, meaning Starford To'a and Gehamat Shibasaki are the wingers. Kurt Mann is the five-eighth and Tex Hoy the fullback with Blake Green and Kalyn Ponga injured. Connor Watson has been named at lock, pushing Mitch Barnett to an edge alongside Tyson Frizell, and Sauaso Sue makes his club debut on the bench.
Corey Allan is Canterbury's new fullback, meaning Nick Cotric and Will Hopoate are the new centre pairing, and Jake Averillo partners Kyle Flanagan in the halves. Jack Hetherington starts in his first game for the Bulldogs, rookie hooker Bradley Deitz debuts via the bench.
Prediction: It's the dawn of a new era in Belmore, with Trent Barrett welcoming six first-time Bulldogs into his line-up, with a focus on revamping their attack. Key players like Corey Allan, Jake Averillo and Kyle Flanagan in the spine will put points on the board, while hotheads like Jack Hetherington and Dylan Napa will bring back the 'Dogs of War' tag.
Newcastle are looking to improve on their 2020 finals berth, but will start the year without Kalyn Ponga, Blake Green, Lachlan Fitzgibbon, Edrick Lee and Hymel Hunt. They looked underdone in their trial against Melbourne, and have some positional changes to work out. Playing in front of 25,000 at McDonald Jones Stadium is massive, but the club will start the year off slow in the upset of the round. Bulldogs by 8.
Brisbane Broncos vs. Parramatta Eels
Suncorp Stadium, 8:05pm, Friday March 12
Team News: Brodie Croft has won the race for the halfback spot, with Tesi Niu in the centres, David Mead makes his NRL return on the wing, and Jamayne Isaako the fullback in a new look side. Jordan Riki will start in the second-row, as John Asiata makes his club debut on the bench.
Tom Opacic starts at left centre in place of Michael Jennings, while Marata Niukore's suspension opens the door for Keegan Hipgrave and Isaiah Papali'i to join the bench.
Prediction: It's never a good sign when you make a decision on who your halfback will be just three or four days out from your first game. Kevvie Walters had the entire pre-season to make a decision, and it doesn't bode well for the Brisbane Broncos. There' a lot of improvement in them, but missing key men like Payne Haas and Kotoni Staggs will hurt.
Parramatta are flying into 2021 with massive question marks, can they score points? They've got the tools and a strong starting forward pack, but they must create. Regardless, their forward pack will roll through Brisbane's and enough field position will see the Broncos crack, leaving the likes of Gutherson and Moses to excel. It won't be the blowout many predict, but the Eels will love Suncorp with the two points. Parramatta by 12.
New Zealand Warriors vs. Gold Coast Titans
Central Coast Stadium, 3:00pm, Saturday March 13
Team News: Euan Aitken (centre), Addin Fonua-Blake (prop) and Bailey Sironen (back-row) are the new faces in the starting side, with Wayde Egan and Eli Katoa surprise starters with initial injury fear. Ben Murdoch-Masilla plays his first NRL game since 2014 off the bench.
David Fifita and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui make their long awaited Titans debut at second-row and lock respectively, though Origin winger Philip Sami is a shock omission on the wing, with flankers Anthony Don and Corey Thompson preferred. Patrick Herbert gets the nod at centre, though fellow recruit Herman Ese'ese has missed out on a spot in the 17.
Prediction: Two sides with the spotlight shone on them after some heavy recruiting, this will be an early indicator where the pair are at. Both clubs lie in many pundits top eight predictions, with the Titans welcoming Fifita and Fa'asuamaleaui, and the Warriors set to farewell Roger Tuivasa-Sheck after this season. It's the most expectation either club has held for years.
The battle between both packs will be immense, and it's clear that hooker is arguably the weak link in both side's spines, however the halves combinations will be the difference. Jamal Fogarty looks like he's ready to go up another gear, while in Kodi Nikorima's seventh NRL season, we're not sure what we'll get. Chanel Harris-Tavita looks the goods but needs someone to steer the ship while he grows as a playmaker, this could be match of the round. They fought out a 12-12 draw in the trials a few weeks ago, but expect a points fest on Saturday as the Titans snag their first win of the year. Gold Coast by 4.
Sydney Roosters vs. Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
SCG, 5:30pm, Saturday March 13
Team News: Luke Keary officially shifts to halfback with Lachlan Lam his new halves partner. Victor Radley and Sam Verrills are at least a week away, meaning Isaac Liu starts at lock, and Adam Keighran and Daniel Fifita join the bench.
For the first time since 2015, Kieran Foran is a Sea Eagle again, and named at five-eighth, but will he play there? The Des Hasler mind games has begun, with Foran rumoured to play hooker, though Lachlan Croker is named there. Dylan Walker has been named at fullback with Tom Trbojevic out, and Jason Saab joins the backline. Josh Aloiai starts at prop while Jack Gosiewski takes the vacant back-row spot, and recruit Andrew Davey is on the bench.
Prediction: Des, Des, Des, Des.... Are we playing games, or is this the team that will run out? Kieran Foran seemed all but certain to play hooker this season, with exciting youngster Josh Schuster to play five-eighth, yet he was named in the reserves. We can only wait, but it's classic Hasler. The Roosters needed this off-season after leaking 111 points in their final three games of 2020, two of which were Finals games, people will be quick to forget.
Their treatment and crucifying of Kyle Flanagan still seems harsh, but there's no doubt Trent Robinson saw the need for Luke Keary to move to seven, and take control of this outfit. The usual suspects are there, Tedesco, Taukieaho, Manu, Crichton... This is still a team that oozes class. They may struggle against the elite sides a little with some chopping and changing in the spine throughout the season, but Manly aren't one of those elite sides. Tom Trbojevic is out, and the loss of Addin Fonua-Blake is big. Lachlan Croker isn't a hooker. There's a decent foundation at Manly, but not enough to stop a Tri-colours side eager to make those forget the score line '60-8' in a hurry. Roosters by 18.
Penrith Panthers vs. North Queensland Cowboys
Panthers Stadium, 7:35pm, Saturday March 13
Team News: Charlie Staines, the Forbes Ferrari, is unveiled on the right wing with Brian To'o shifting to the left, with Paul Momirovski winning the race for the right centre role. Moses Leota is the new starting prop with James Tamou gone, and Spencer Leniu pushing his way onto the bench. Kurt Capewell's strong Origin campaign sees him snare a starting role, with Liam Martin back to the bench. Matt Eisenhuth is the new face on the pine.
Scott Drinkwater has been named fullback, with Valentine Holmes pushed to a wing, and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow now playing in the centres. Francis Molo is a starting prop which means Josh McGuire will come off the bench.
Prediction: Can Penrith go the extra step? Can the Cowboys get close to top eight contention? They're two very different questions, for two contrasting teams, but both will begin being answered on Saturday night. Penrith field a slightly different side than last season, lacking size in the middle. The departure of James Tamou and Zane Tetevano leaves Moses Leota to step up as a starting forward, as well as the likes of Matt Eisenhuth and Spencer Leniu on the bench. They lose metres out of their backline as well, replacing Josh Mansour with Charlie Staines, there's a lot of weight on James Fisher-Harris' shoulders.
The Cowboys certainly have the big men, with Jason Taumalolo, Jordan Maclean, Josh McGuire and Coen Hess, but they need some class. Michael Morgan has it, but has struggled since that 2017 Grand Final run. They've made the right call, pushing Holmes to the wing and throwing Scott Drinkwater at fullback, but is there enough resistance in this team to beat Penrith? In short, no. Nathan Cleary will hit the ground running and I think this will be a breakout season for Brian To'o on the left wing, they'll impress at home. Panthers by 14.
Canberra Raiders vs. Wests Tigers
GIO Stadium, 4:05pm, Sunday March 14
Team News: Jarrod Croker will miss the opening week as he recovers from shoulder surgery, with Sebastian Kris a shock selection to replace him. Bailey Simonsson and Josh Hodgson return after long-term injuries at wing and hooker respectively, while John Bateman's absence hands Hudson Young a crack at a starting role. Siliva Havili has beaten Tom Starling for the utility role, while Ryan James plays his first NRL game in over 22 months off the bench.
There's a host of changes for the Tigers, with Daine Laurie the new fullback, Moses Mbye deputises for the suspended Adam Doueihi at five-eighth, James Roberts partners Joey Leilua in the centres, and recruit Joe Ofahengaue and James Tamou are the new front-row duo. Tommy Talau is a surprise pick at 14 with Asu Kepaoa on the wing, meaning Jacob Liddle should play 80 minutes.
Prediction: The Tigers are the most curious case in the NRL. There is a lot to like in the line-up, a lot of promise, but we have to look at the side for what they are, not their potential. If they miss the finals this year, it'll be their tenth consecutive year of missing finals footy. Luke Brooks is 150 NRL games into his career and yet to taste the pre-season, whilst the 1-17 is full of rookies, and many first-graders that lack consistency. James Tamou and Alex Twal set the standard, but it's up to the rest of the side to follow suit.
Canberra just look stronger, with Josh Hodgson returning from his second ACL tear within the space of three years. Jack Wighton is the reigning Dally M medallist, and Joe Tapine looks like he could challenge Josh Papalii as the sides most dominant forward. George Williams fit into the NRL much quicker than expected, they're a definite dark horse for the premiership, and should slot straight into the top four. Their forward pack depth is incredible, with Emre Guler, Tom Starling, Corey Harawira-Naera and Corey Horsbrugh all out of this week's 17. It's only the opening round but this is a Raiders team brimming with confidence, and the ability to back it, and should put a score on this Sunday. Canberra by 22.
St. George Illawarra Dragons vs. Cronulla Sharks
Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, 6:15pm, Sunday March 14
Team News: Cody Ramsey and Mikaele Ravalawa are the starting wingers for the Red V, meaning Jordan Pereira misses out. Jack Bird will start at centre, with Adam Clune deputising at five-eighth for the suspended Corey Norman. Andrew McCullough starts at hooker, Tyrell Fuimaono is the new lock, Josh Kerr is now on an edge, with new faces Daniel Alvaro and Poasa Faamausili joining Brayden Williame on the bench.
Matt Moylan will start the season at five-eighth while Shaun Johnson recovers from his Achilles tear. Billy Magoulias and Aiden Tolman have won bench spots, meaning Andrew Fifita has been bumped to the reserves.
Prediction: A local derby to polish off the opening round, these are both sides expected to miss the finals in 2021. Cronulla snuck into the eight last year, though didn't beat a single top eight side all season. Shaun Johnson is missing for the early rounds, with a lot of weight on Matt Moylan and Chad Townsend's shoulders. They're midway through a rebuild, with the old guard in Aiden Tolman and Andrew Fifita in their twilight, and the likes of Toby Rudolf, Braden Hamlin-Uele and Briton Nikora are just starting out.
The Dragons have been tipped by many for a wooden spoon this year, but there are aspects to like for the Red V. Ben Hunt, Corey Norman and Andrew McCullough have played a lot of footy together in the past, though Norman will miss this clash through suspension. Jack Bird plays his first NRL game since May, 2019, but looked sharp in the trials, while youngster Cody Ramsey could certainly score some tries this year. It's going to be a tight affair, with positives and negatives for both outfits, but in an upset, the Red V will get the chocolates in their first game under Anthony Griffin. Dragons by 6.
