With 2025 done and dusted, the 2026 season looms as a potential pivot point for several clubs.
Some have the pieces - depth, returning players, momentum - to vault up the ladder. Others, even if still competitive, could slip simply because of attrition, draw difficulty or squad wear-and-tear.
Below are three clubs who look primed for a jump - and three who may find next year a tougher ask than many expect.
Riser: Dolphins
If 2025 was the Dolphins learning how to compete, 2026 looks like the year they learn how to finish. They were already on the cusp - ninth, level on wins with finals contenders, and producing one of the most entertaining attacking profiles in the competition.
But where they felt stretched was in their middle rotation, particularly once Thomas Flegler and Tom Gilbert were both sidelined long-term. They didn't just lose metres and intimidation - they lost shape, ruck control and second-phase organisation.
The most exciting growth area is in the spine and decision-making of Isaiya Katoa. His 2025 wasn't perfect, but it did show the one thing you can't coach: composure.
Where younger halves rush to force structure, Katoa increasingly learned when to play short, when to hold width, when to take a tackle and reset. Give him an actual dominant forward platform and his progression curve stops being theoretical and starts being wins.
Out wide, Herbie Farnworth has been everything advertised and arguably more - a two-way centre who defends above his weight, carries with intent, and turns half-chances into tries.
When Flegler and Gilbert return, Herbie stops being asked to take yardage sets like a prop and can go back to being what he is: a strike centre with elite timing. That's before you factor in the gravitational pull of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow.
When the Hammer is fit and roaming, defensive lines stop behaving normally - spacing widens, edges jump early, inside defenders over-slide - and all of that feeds into Katoa's ability to pick his moment rather than chase the game.
Put it together and you get something simple but powerful: the Dolphins finally look like a team with a normal load on their stars. Flegler returns to lead, Gilbert anchors contact, Katoa grows into a conductor, Herbie gets ball early instead of yardage grind, Hammer gets clean grass, not chaos.
If 2025 was a narrow miss, 2026 has the profile of a season where they move from fun to frightening - a team that can score with anyone but now has the middle muscle to suffocate too.
Projected Swing: 9th → 4th–6th
Wow, I really thought that Bulldogs could be on here, but thankfully they aren’t.
I think all of them are right except Raiders and Storm, they both are still very good team even without those players.
That’s a well-written and challenging piece, Matt.
I follow the arguments and the rationale for all of the clubs.
The only one with which I have a real problem is your assessment of Newcastle.
I read the words, and the sentences make sense, but I am unconvinced by the argument. The expected spine looks a lot more expensive than all the combinations tried in 2025, but I’m not convinced that they will be much more effective.
I can see the club rising, in the sense that from the bottom of the table the only way is up. However, I can’t see Newcastle rising by anywhere near as much as you envisage.
“Not because they lack talent, but because they have reached the point where structural certainty, leadership stability and injury reliability are all sitting on the wrong side of probability.”
That style reminds me of Clive James in his literary criticism days.
And that is a compliment.