Heading into round three of the NRL season, the team I support are sitting quite snuggly at the foot of the ladder.
It looks a cosy fit for a team well backed to take out the wooden spoon in 2019. In fact, that honour looked highly likely in 2018 before a late season flourish saw them extricate themselves from the mire and the Parramatta Eels add another utensil to their considerable collection.
The club in question has taken a turnstile and fire hydrant approach to defence in the first two rounds, the forwards’ attacking play has resembled young kids running around firing pop guns and the defensive reads in the back line have been as comical as a Benny Hill skit.
It all adds up to a disastrous start, few positives to parlay into future improvement and a swathe of media criticism. In reality, it is not surprising, with the club in question still living the nightmares of poor recruitment, retention and salary cap management over the last five years.
Considering all of the above, surely it is fair to death knell the season; call it done and start experimenting with a few more kids and reserve grade players in preparation for 2020?
Not according to some.
After a drubbing to open the season, cries of “it’s only round one” echoed loudly through the clubs’ supporter base. Those cries had little confidence or substance behind them, fear and the realisation of a harsh reality were more the driving forces.
When the club managed to back up their round one effort with a similarly weak display in round two it appeared confirmed. Still the fans called for calm and patience and the coach swung the axe David Foster style, as the team prepared to take on an undefeated and top of the ladder opponent in round three.
Personally, I’ve never understood the psychology of, “it’s a long season”, it will take some time to gel” or “it’s only round two”. From an anecdotal viewpoint, it seems to me that a slow start often drives the narrative of an entire season.
I decided to test that view with data and the results were interesting to say the least.
From a purely mathematical perspective, 24 matches make up the 2019 NRL competition. Each week two points are on offer and they account for just over four per cent of the total points available to a team for the entire season.
The cellar dwellers have let eight percent slip in the first fortnight, whilst Wests Tigers, Parramatta, South Sydney and Melbourne have cashed in with a perfect start to the season.
So how determinate are team’s starts to their likelihood of semi-final play?
Using data from 1999-2018, a twenty year period that begins when some post-Super League normality was returned to the game, I looked at the success rate of teams after stumbling from the gates in the early rounds and those who jumped from the boxes like greyhounds.
For those teams wearing concrete shoes in rounds one and two, the history books do not bode well. There have been 70 teams to begin an NRL season 0-2 since 1999. Just 35 per cent of them have gone on to play semi-final football.
Add a third loss and the importance of the early rounds becomes even more apparent. 30 teams have laboured through a trio of losses to start the season in that time and just seven (23 per cent) have made the post season action.
Only the North Queensland Cowboys and New Zealand Warriors stand as outliers to these numbers. The Cowboys are the only grand final winners (2015) in the past twenty years to start the season with a 0-3 record. The Warriors were runner’s up in 2011 after doing the same.
The numbers look even more compelling when turned 180 degrees and the benefit of a fast start is considered.
Since 1999, 75 teams have jumped away well and taken four points from the opening two matches. Of those, 54 (72 per cent) have been involved in the semi-final series. Throw in a third successive win achieved by 36 of those teams during that period and the figure inflates to 81 per cent. 29 of those 36 teams have made the semi-final series.
Sure the odd team starts brilliantly and fades into oblivion when the whips begin cracking in September. Admittedly a poor start can be rescued in the modern game where momentum is key.
However, the numbers suggest that a slow and cumbersome start considerably hampers a team’s progress across the full length of a season. Conversely, competition points in the bank early in the piece often set a tone of confidence and performance that usually results in semi-final activity come seasons' end.
So stop telling me it is only round one, or two. My team looks like a rickety old rocking chair about to take the weight of William ‘the refrigerator’ Perry and this week could be a cricket score.
Although, teams can turn it around I guess and it is only Round 3!
Ok Stuart you’ve convinced me with the figures and facts, you did forget that Penrith lost 3 of their first 4 games in 2003 but still won the comp while the previous year in 2002 Penrith lost their first 8 games and avoided the Wooden Spoon by finishing 12th. However I agree Canterbury Gold Coast and Manly are the only candidates for this years Wooden Trophy. 🥄🥄🥄🥄🥄
Dogs need a sombrero
The doggies as I’ve been saying are doomed this year. Should be looking to lose as many older or high paid players as possible and start a rebuild.
1. Meaney
2. Crichton
5. Smith
6. Lewis
8. Napa
11. Faitala-Mariner
12. Martin
14. Marshall-King
16. Harawira-Naera
Build off these players to start 2020
The problem is nobody wants to go to a club that will destroy their career. Napa will not get a run for Qld this season but at the Roosters he was first prop picked. The other side of the coin is that clubs when rebuilding panic buy and hand out extra money to a player that is not worth that amount. Napa was a really good prop playing 50 mins a game for 400k at the Roosters but he is an overpaid 50 min player at the dogs for 680-700k. Do you think even if they offer Pangai Junior a 1 million buck contract that he would make a backward career move for the money❓❔❓❔ Some players at the end of their careers may but he won’t find that tempting for the simple reason he will not be playing semi final footy and therefore will miss out on rep honours. Its very hard when your down in the gutter. Enjoy back to back spoons🤣😆😂🤣😆😂😆🤣💪🐔👍
Oh duckman, where have you been? Your uncle has been squealing like a pig since learning your about to be punted! Even a premiership hasn’t persuaded the “fans” to sign up for a membership, your second last by only 1,500 to Manly who have gone like busteds for the last 3years , time to move over or merge with us cause as neighbors the fans have spoken by choosing the RABBITS over a drumstick membership 😂😂😂😂😂😂 bye bye
Look st what the knights have done. Overpaid for Ponga which turned out a good buy and got a good leader and half in Pearce who was getting written off by people. Young players move there for an opportunity to start such as Ese’ese, Moga, Lee, Hunt, Watson, Lino and they now are looking for finals footy. If you rebuild quickly at the right time itll be fine but the bulldogs look like they still want to compete and stuff.
If I were them I’d be making a move for a young hooker like one of the Braileys or Robson and throw 1 of them a deal around 400k for 4 years.
I’d also make a play for both Tom Flegler and George Fai from the Broncoes. With Pangai and Ofahengaue still to be signed on big deals, 1 if not both of these forwards will probably move due to the broncoes not being able to match the money or opportunity. So I’d say like 300k 4 Years would get 1.
And lastly a good young half. Probably the hardest area because it’s so important I’d try really hard to offer something to Kyle Flanagan or Adam Doehuei but both have long deals.
As I said in the piece, always a few exceptions but the numbers suggest a good start is vital and a bad start can be fatal. Was interesting to look back over the twenty years. Cheers.
I think Des took it with him!
First of all, a lot of people wrote South Sydney off as a mid-range team after 2 consecutive losses to start 2018.
Second, Canterbury have found their weakness and acted on it. Both losses went sour the moment Tolman, Elliott and Napa left the field and a weak bench came on. They have now replaced that bench with 2 players who have been tearing it up in the Canterbury Cup; Martin and Ogden.
No Olympic Park Western Suburb Rabbit. See the only teams that have relocated and still don’t realise are soufffs and Canterbury to Olympic Park in the West.
Nick Politis and Phil Gould told the facts as they really are the other day. The NRL has not got the power to make any team relocate while they pay their bills. You see all the teams are like share holders and the NRL hierarchy are the board members. Nobody can go anywhere while they are financially viable.
The mighty Sydney Roosters have the best Buisness minded Orignisation in the League. When Nick turns his toes up the next man in rises to the occasion. Heard of MARK BOURIS, if not he is more than likely to be the next multi millionaire to become the next Nick Politis, and after Mark there is a list from here to eternity for those rich blokes who want to be the Roosters “BOSS” 💪😎👉—–💲💲💲💲💲💲✖💲💲💲💲💲💲=🤑💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰
Like I said before Western Suburbs Rabbit The Sydney Roosters are the only team that has played in every season in Australian Rugby League History. Our wealthy Bussiness minded people in a Buissness minded location assures the Roosters existence until Earths history ends.🤣😆😂😆🤣😆😂😆🤣😆😂😆🤣———💪😎👉🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓🐓
Western Suburbs Rabbits with the membership people love our footy side in the Eastern Suburbs and all over Sydney. The majority of these memberships are people who live in Suburbs all over Sydney. Hence the name Sydney Roosters. But those wealthy Roosters fans are mainly traveling on oversea business trips so a full membership is not viable as the majority of people who are unable to attend games. However those people attend games when they are back in Australia.
Soufffths for example have around 28k but believe me that inflated figure will prove at seasons end, that they DO NOT AVERAGE 28 thousand people per home game. I will say it now because I know I an correct. So prepare yourself Wests Rabbit —- Are you Ready❗❕❗❕❗ I said Are You Ready ❕❗❕❗❕❗ I told you so. 🤣😆😂🤣😆😂🤣😆😂🤣😆😂🤑—-💪🐔👍
In 2014 the Rabbitohs only won one game from our first 4 games and went on and won the Comp.
That one win was against…
You Guessed it,
It was the Rorts, it was a marvellous 28 to 8 Victory.
Ponga went to Newcastle for the opportunity to play first grade , as a first choice player. His first deal wasn’t that much. But worth every cent & more.
Flanagan’s dad is no longer at the Sharks . If he isn’t a first grader regularly soon, he’ll leave & go somewhere where he gets to be the first choice halfback. Cronulla won’t really be able to stop him. Deal or no deal, it happens all the time.
Yes The Roosters stopped soufffths Magpies or is that Wests Olympic Park Rabbit’os from winning their first Minor Premiership since 1989 when we kicked your butt in the last round. 22-18
It was the Crowes team of imports, it was a marvellous 22 to 18 Victory.💪🐔👉—-🤣😂😆😁🤣