State of Origin Game 3 preview, prediction: Can the Maroons avoid the sweep?

It’s been a long-held view of rugby league observers that there is no such thing as a dead rubber in State of Origin.

But that theory is about to be put through its biggest ever test when the Queensland Maroons try to reverse the most embarrassing Origin series in history against the red-hot, rampant New South Wales Blues.

The Blues have run up a combined score of 76 points to 6 so far in the series. It’s bordering on pathetic for Queensland, and while changes to both teams may level the playing field, a sweep, particularly when all three games are north of the Tweed, would be one of the lowest moments for either state in Origin history.

Of course, Game 3 was originally supposed to be played in Sydney, but the city’s worsening COVID outbreak, where over 100 cases were announced on Monday, and almost another hundred yesterday, forced the game out of the city, and then out of Newcastle.

While the Gold Coast is hardly the ideal location for New South Wales fans, it will give Queensland a slight advantage as they aim to avoid being swept.

A normal sweep is downright embarrassing, but being swept 3-0 at home? It's a feat which has never happened before, and is never likely to happen again, only deemed possible by the dramatic events off the field.

The Queenslanders will have some help as they attempt to fight off the Blue onslaught in the form of Kalyn Ponga.

Ponga will provide them with everything they haven't had at fullback, including run metres and creativity, but that alone won't be enough to get the Maroons over the line, no matter how good the Newcastle fullback is.

Queensland have also elected to bring Hamiso Tabua-Fidow into the side. It means Kurt Capewell shifts back to the second row, and after being given a bath in Game 1 and 2, it makes complete sense for the Maroons.

Capewell missed six tackles in the opener and wasn't much better in the second. Tabuai-Fidow brings with him some much-needed pace and regularity playing in the outside backs, with the young gun missing just one tackle per game in the NRL.

It's really the centres where Queensland have been most outplayed across the first two fixtures, with Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell both in the running for player of the series if they turn out more good performances on the Gold Coast.

Trbojevic was named man of the match in Game 1, while the argument could have been made that Mitchell was better in his centre pairing, and they were both among the top players in Game 2 as James Tedesco took out the honour.

But it wouldn't matter who did. The names mentioned, plus two of the best wingers in the competition in metre-eater Brian To'o and try-scoring freak Josh Addo-Carr tell you all you need to know about the danger New South Wales possess in the backs.

That danger has been toned down a notch or two for this one though, with both Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai out through injury. That is an enormous impact on the men wearing sky blue. Not only did they bring the NRL's most successful club halves combination into the series, but they have controlled things expertly for the Blues.

In their place, Rabbitohs duo Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker were somewhat bafflingly overlooked, with Jack Wighton promoted into the starting side and Mitchell Moses named to join him. While Parramatta have been in great touch, Moses has been labelled a flat track bully and it's not hard to see why, while Wighton's efforts to make the Raiders his own team have cost them a spot in the top eight thus far, with a desperately tough job ahead of the men in green to play in the finals.

New South Wales have been so far ahead that even a double change in the halves may not completely de-rail them, but it will certainly make the series tighter, with Wighton's form in particular a major question mark.

With Payne Haas likely to start for the Blues as well, and if not Dale Finucane playing an unfamiliar middle third role, you have to question whether Fittler's side will be able to have the same dominance in the forwards either.

Without that level of dominance, it could become possible for a strong Queensland middle third rotation of Josh Papalii, Christian Welch and Moeaki Fotuaika to put the Maroons on the front foot, which will only increase pressure on the kicking game of Moses, which is something Cleary handled beautifully in the first two games.

The Blues' defence is still the difference between the two sides, but put under proper pressure, it would be intriguing to see what Daly Cherry-Evans and Cameron Munster are able to provide their state after a mostly very poor first two games.

If they can step it up, then that only brings this final match closer again.

The other major advantage for New South Wales is the bench, and even with Haas starting (if that is what happens), they still have it through the excellent consistency of Finucane, and the work of Crichton, they are still leaps and bounds ahead.

Prediction

Queensland should be closer in this game. The embarrassment of two straight losses, their biggest combined in Origin history, should galvanise the team. They don't have enough to flip the result though unless New South Wales go completely off the boil.

Blues by 10.