The Penrith Panthers will enter the NRL grand final as the red-hot favourites to make it three Provan-Summons' trophies in a row as they clash with the Brisbane Broncos, playing their first decider since 2015.
The biggest day on the NRL's calendar will once again see the Panthers aim to continue their ascent to being the best team of the NRL era.
If they manage to make it three premierships in a row, then they will be crowned just that - no team in this era has won three premierships in a row. In fact, the only team since the beginning of the NRL to win two in a row prior to the Panthers is the Sydney Roosters in 2018 and 2019.
That puts Penrith in rare air even if they do fall short on Sunday evening - four grand finals in a row is nothing to be sneezed at.
But talk of the Panthers losing is not the popular opinion in the lead-up to the contest. This side have been something special all year, as they have been over the last three campaigns.
Barely putting a foot wrong for the most part, Penrith have crunched their opposition with defence leading the way. The men from the foot of the mountains have once again held the competition's best defence, letting in just 312 points during the regular season and only two tries during their two finals games to date.
The Broncos had the competition's second-best defence, but let in an extra 113 points across the regular season. That said, Brisbane managed to keep the Melbourne Storm to zero in the opening week of the finals before defending strongly for the final hour against the New Zealand Warriors.
It's not defence which has been Brisbane's crowning achievement this season though, as good as it has been.
Their attack has been outstanding for the most part, but will need to be on another level to go with the Panthers on Sunday evening. Reece Walsh is one of the game's best, Adam Reynolds provides control, and the forward pack are all power.
But the question of going with the Panthers in a grand final remains to be seen.
Team news
Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Jack Cogger 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Luke Garner
Reserves: 18. Tyrone Peachey 19. Matt Eisenhuth
The Panthers come into the deciding match of the season with no changes. Ultimately, that means everyone came through last weekend's preliminary final unscathed, including Jarome Luai who was rushed back into the side just four weeks after dislocating his shoulder.
Another nine days in recovery will give the injury more strength ahead of the grand final, but Penrith still have Jack Cogger on the bench ahead of Tyrone Peachey as the insurance cover utility.
Brisbane Broncos
1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan
Interchange: 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Brendan Piakura 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Keenan Palasia
Reserves: 18. Corey Oates 19. Martin Taupau
The Broncos, like the Panthers, come into the grand final completely unchanged from the preliminary final. They had less questions than Penrith, although there was a concern for Reece Walsh at the end of the game, and Adam Reynolds has been a week-to-week proposition at times this season.
Full strength means Tyson Smoothy remains the bench utility, and veteran Corey Oates - who is the only player left from the 2015 decider - misses out.
Keys to the game
Differences on the bench
When you compare the two interchange benches up against each other heading into this game, there is a clear advantage to the two-time defending premiers.
Spencer Leniu could well be a starting prop at most clubs, Lindsay Smith has been phenomenal in recent weeks and Luke Garner adds plenty. Don't be surprised to see Jack Cogger play a role either.
That's not pouring cold water on Brisbane's bench, but Brendan Piakuar, Kobe Hetherington and Keenan Palasia simply aren't in the same ball park despite what they have been able to produce in 2023.
Granted, they play less minutes, but in that lies the issue for the Broncos.
They have a monster job to do on Sunday given the heat. The temperature is still going to be in the high 20s at kick-off, and that could limit minutes for Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan, putting more pressure on the rotation.
It'll be intriguing to see whether they can stand up to the challenge.
Finding a way through the Panthers
This is a running theme throughout most conversations around the grand fnial, but the Panthers are simply too good in defence.
They had a defence which was over 100 points better than anyone else this season, and have simply held their own against all opposition.
That said, the Broncos have some of the more dangerous weapons in the competition, led by Reece Walsh and a pin-point accurate kicking game of Adam Reynolds.
The simple fact though is that Brisbane won't out-grind the Panthers. They will need to expansive from go to woah, but conservatively so. Repeat sets and a weight of possession will be critical.
That brings in Adam Reynolds' kicking game, with Reece Walsh then needing to play around that. It means the forwards must be perfect, while the explosiveness of Ezra Mam is also critical.
Metres at the back
One of the over-arching themes of Penrith's long run of success has been the amount of metres they have been able to constantly make through their back three.
Dylan Edwards, Sunia Turuva and Brian To'o all sit in the top three for metres run throughout the competition, and in a tight game, possession and territory will be everything.
That's not to say Brisbane can't match it, but they will need more out of wingers Jesse Arthars and Selwyn Cobbo if they are going to match if returning from a Nathan Cleary kicking game which is on par with Reynolds and among the best in the competition.
Prediction
This game could go either way, as most grand finals seem to feel like.
That said, the Panthers come in as overwhelming favourites and with good reason. This is a side who have defended spectacularly all year, and that will leave them in good stead ahead of the decider.
If anything, 2023 has been their most dominant season yet at that end of the park. More importantly, Nathan Cleary has been playing like a man with a point to prove over the last fortnight.
They do have to shut down Reece Walsh and dominate in the forwards, but provided they don't fall behind early, fatigue in the heat could catch up to Brisbane's forwards and leave the bench group vulnerable - Penrith have a monster advantage there and I expect them to kick clear to a fairly comfortable win in the end.
Penrith by 18.
Key game information: 2023 NRL grand final, Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos
Kick-off: Sunday, October 1, 7:30pm (AEDT)
Venue: Accor Stadium, Homebush
TV: Live, Channel 9
Online: Live, 9Now
Betting: Panthers $1.62, Broncos $2.30
Overall record: Played 60, Broncos 35, Panthers 24, drawn 1
Record in finals: Played 3, Panthers 2, Broncos 1
Referee: Adam Gee
Zero Tackle will have the grand final covered from all angles, including a live blog in our match centre which will also have live scores and stats.
