The Penrith Panthers, playing in their third straight grand final, will look to become the second team this century to make it back to back premierships when they take on the Parramatta Eels, playing in their first decider since 2009 and looking to break the NRL's longest curse.

When the Cronulla Sharks won their maiden premiership in 2016, it left the Eels at the top of the list for the team's with the longest time between drinks at the top of NRL mountain.

Six years later though and the Eels finally find themselves back on the biggest day of the season, having last appeared here during the 2009 version against a Melbourne Storm side later found to be well over the salary cap.

The Eels weren't retrospectively awarded that premiership, but after three heartbreaking semi-final exits in a row over the last three seasons, they were finally able to throw that money off their back this season.

Despite a horror second half against the Panthers in the opening week of the finals, they were able to dispose of the Canberra Raiders in a dominant fashion the following week to keep things alive as they advanced to the preliminary finals.

That was followed by an arduous trek to Townsville, but a trek they were ultimately able to return from with the chocolates despite controversy early and a thrilling finish at the back-end of the contest, with the grand final qualifier going down to its final minute.

The game, which flowed back and forth for the majority, saw the Eels ultimately snatch the win, and with their nine-day turnaround, any ill-effects they are feeling out of it - and there would be plenty given the rather ferocious nature of the game against Todd Payten's well-rested side - should now have subsided ahead of the biggest day on the calendar.

TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 23: Maika Sivo of the Eels celebrates a try with team mates Bailey Simonsson and Reed Mahoney during the NRL Preliminary Final match between the North Queensland Cowboys and the Parramatta Eels at Queensland Country Bank Stadium on September 23, 2022 in Townsville, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

But that doesn't mean this is going to see the Eels enter as favourites.

That right is reserved for the minor premiers, and the defending premiers at that. The Panthers are a team who have barely been challenged over the last 12 months.

Winning the competition last year, but doing it the hard way through the finals series after losing in Week 1 of the knockout rounds, they have managed to do things the easy way this year, blitzing past the Eels in the opening week of the finals before beating last year's runner-up the South Sydney Rabbitohs in their preliminary final.

Penrith also knocked the Eels out of last year's finals series on the way to the premiership, and clearly have all the confidence in the world right now.

That is despite the questions they had lingering in the background coming into the finals.

Those questions namely related to the match fitness of Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai, with Cleary suspended heading into the end of the season and Luai injured.

The duo have both been at their absolute best in the opening two finals clashes though, steering the men from the foot of the mountains through to their third straight decider with relative ease.

That isn't to say the pressure won't be everywhere for the Panthers in the grand final. They have an enormous target on their back, are likely to be outmatched in the grandstand and come up against one of the competition's only forward packs who have been able to match them this season.

Parramatta ended Penrith's long home winning streak earlier in the season and then beat them again later in the season, and while they lost in the qualifying final, it's those two victories early on which will give them the confidence and game plan to know they can beat Penrith.

More on exactly how they do that shortly, but playing with attacking intent and confidence will be paramount to Brad Arthur's side if they are going to hoist the Provan-Summons Tropy aloft this evening.

Team news

Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Charlie Staines 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Mitch Kenny 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon 18. Sean O'Sullivan 19. Matt Eisenhuth

The Panthers were keen on making a change for the grand final after Taylan May missed the preliminary final with a suspension that he copped last time out against the Eels in the qualifying final.

A hamstring injury, as it turned out, would have kept him out of the win over South Sydney anyway though, and he is yet to recover, so Charlie Staines will keep his spot in the side.

Mitch Kenny has also been named to play from the bench, although talk suggests Ivan Cleary could swing another late change with the New South Wales Origin star Apisai Koroisau to be injected into the game after the opening 20 minutes, as he has done in previous weeks.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - OCTOBER 20: Apisai Koroisau of the Panthers looks on during a Penrith Panthers NRL training session at Panthers Stadium on October 20, 2020 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Parramatta Eels
1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Waqa Blake 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali'i 13. Ryan Matterson
Interchange: 14. Nathan Brown 15. Jakob Arthur 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Marata Niukore 18. Bryce Cartwright 19. Makahesi Makatoa

Like the Panthers, the Eels were hoping they would have a player back on deck for the decider, but Tom Opacic has failed to recover from a hamstring injury, which means Bailey Simonsson retains his spot in the centres.

The ex-Raider, who started the year on the wing, but fell out of favour, will now line up in the grand final and could interchange with Waqa Blake on the wing if he begins to struggle under the high ball at any point.

Brad Arthur has also made an unforced change for the grand final, electing to call damaging forward Nathan Brown.

The lock, whose role will be to cause as much carnage in a small amount of time as possible, takes the spot of Bryce Cartwright, who is named as 18th man, with Jakob Arthur keeping his spot on the bench.

Where it'll be won and lost

For the Parramatta Eels, the equation to win their first premiership in 36 years is a fairly simple one.

Dominate the middle third.

If they don't do that, then they are absolutely, positively, zero chance of winning the grand final, and that long, harrowing drought that hangs over the club will continue.

But it's not as if they don't have the weapons to be able to do that.

Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard are both Origin-calibre starting props, Marata Niukore has been a weapon, Ryan Matterson has quickly turned into the competition's most damaging lock, and the influence that Oregon Kaufusi and Nathan Brown playing limited minutes off the pine will bring can't be ignored.

NRL Rd 2 - Titans v Eels
GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 22: Junior Paulo of the Eels takes on the defence during the round 2 NRL match between the Gold Coast Titans and the Parramatta Eels at Cbus Super Stadium on March 22, 2020 in Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

But they come up against a forward pack who have consistently made everyone look second-best for the best part of three years.

James Fisher-Harris, Moses Leota, Isaah Yeo and a bench troop who just roll the sleeves up and get the job done could be enough for Penrith, but you could certainly suggest with relative ease that if Parramatta win, then one of Matterson, Paulo or Campbell-Gillard will take the Clive Churchill Medal home with them.

In the event of an equal battle through the middle third of the park, the kicking game of both sides will be critical, with Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses leading on that front.

What we have seen from Moses this year has been far above anything he has been able to produce consistently over the years, and yet, there are still questions lingering around whether he will be able to match it with the level of Cleary.

Without wanting to pin the entire game on one player however, Clint Gutherson is the key.

The star fullback makes all the difference for the Eels. When he is on, seemingly, so are the team. When he isn't, then Parramatta also tend to struggle.

That has been evident in some of the big games they have played over the second half of the season, and given he will also be playing against the NRL's leading metre-eater in Dylan Edwards, the battle of the fullbacks could again be the difference.

2021 NRL Grand Final - Panthers v Rabbitohs
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - OCTOBER 03: Dylan Edwards of the Panthers runs the ball during the 2021 NRL Grand Final match between the Penrith Panthers and the South Sydney Rabbitohs at Suncorp Stadium on October 03, 2021, in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

The history

The Eels hold the wood over the Panthers during the regular season, having won both games this season, but when it comes to finals, it has been all Penrith.

They knocked the Eels out of the competition last year, and beat them in the qualifying finals this year.

All up, the Eels have won 60 of the 106 games between the two sides, but it's unlikely to count for much come 7:30pm this evening.

Overall record: Played 106, Eels 60, Panthers, 45, drawn 1
Record in finals: Played 4, Eels 2, Panthers 2

Prediction

This could be an all-time classic grand final. Two teams who are evenly matches across the park without much splitting them.

Their games this year haven't been instant classics, but at various points, had the potential to be so.

The Panthers though are the competition's most professional outfit, of that there is little doubt. They simply turn up and do the job week in and week out, and while Parramatta are still an exceptionally strong side, matching it with a team who have been in the last two grand finals might be a bridge too far.

Panthers by 8.

Key information

Kick-off: Sunday, October 2, 7:30pm (AEST)
Venue: Accor Stadium, Homebush
Referee: Ashley Klein