Round 18 was one to forget for two of the youngest rosters in the competition, both missing key personnel. Both the Tigers and Bulldogs were soundly lapped last week, making for some very hard watching for fans and soul-searching for players and club staff.
St George-Illawarra was also flogged, copping another score over 50, while the Rabbitohs and Panthers reaffirmed their premiership credentials with solid wins over the Warriors and Storm, respectively.
Round 19 is a shortened round, with the Broncos, Cowboys, Knights, Panthers, Roosters, Sea Eagles and Storm all enjoying the bye in the lead-up to State of Origin Game Three.
Round 19: Tips and SuperCoach Notes
Wests Tigers vs Cronulla Sharks
Thursday 6th July 7:50pm | Commbank Stadium, Sydney
State of Origin Outs: nil
Why the Tigers will win: The Tigers have a young squad that could be worked to their benefit as we come into the final third of the season. The Tigers also have the experience of Tim Sheens, who has seen plenty of dark days and will help to soften the blow of recent floggings.
Why the Sharks will win: The Sharks are at full strength and had an easy training-run style match last week against a hapless Dragons outfit. Meanwhile, the Tigers entered the record books in several categories after being smashed 74-0 last round. They'll be demoralised, and the Sharks will be in cruise mode.
Fansided tip: Sharks by 30
SuperCoach notes: Those who straight-captained Nicho Hynes last week were duly rewarded with a 156 (312), and this week he is a good option once again. Briton Nikora ($661K) is a solid option for the run home in 2RF, and with not many standout hookers in the competition, Blayke Brailey offers a 3-round average of 62, a good run and is priced at $530K.
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders
Friday 7th July 8:00pm | WIN Stadium, Wollongong
State of Origin Outs: Ben Hunt (Dragons), Corey Horsburgh (Raiders)
Why the Dragons will win: WIN Stadium can be a tricky place to win, regardless of a team's place on the ladder. The Dragons play a very physical style of footy and will be looking to amend last week's heavy defeat. Early aggression from the likes of Blake Lawrie, Jaydn Su'a, Jack De Belin and Francis Molo could rattle the Green Machine.
Why the Raiders will win: There is just too much strike and balance across this Raiders roster for the Dragons to hold at bay for a full 80 minutes. Further, St George-Illawarra will be missing key spine players Ben Hunt and Tyrell Sloan. While we will get a glimpse of the future halves pairing of Talatau Amone and Jayden Sullivan, it won't give Dragons fans too much inspiration in this one-sided affair.
Fansided tip: Raiders by 18
SuperCoach notes: Dropped for the final Origin game, Hudson Young could prove to be a good pickup for the rest of the season. He's priced at $573K and has a 71.3 average across his last three games.
Parramatta Eels vs New Zealand Warriors
Saturday 8th July 5:30pm | Commbank Stadium, Sydney
State of Origin Outs: Reagan Campbell-Gillard (Eels), Clinton Gutherson (Eels), J'maine Hopgood (R) (Eels)
Why the Eels will win: While Shaun Johnson has been named to play, the whispers surrounding him being a late withdrawal are growing louder, and he is one of the main reasons for much of the Warriors' success in 2023. He has evolved his game and matured as a player, and if he's out, the Warriors will be noticeably weaker.
Why the Warriors will win: The Eels are still without Dylan Brown long-term, and the absence of Mitchell Moses, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Clinton Gutherson will leave a huge hole in the attacking structure of the Eels. Josh Hodgson looks likely to miss the rest of the season at this stage, leaving a solid but inexperienced Brendan Hands playing 80 minutes.
Fansided tip: Warriors by 4
SuperCoach notes: J'maine Hopgood is a good run-home option if he doesn't get a last-minute call-up to Origin, while Bryce Cartwright ($586K) is playing some of the best footy of his career lately, boasting a 3-round average of just under 73. Shaun Johnson has been named to start for the Warriors but could be a late withdrawal due to the birth of his second child. Johnson has been red hot, and if he is ruled out, it may negatively affect some other Warriors' scores.
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Saturday 8th July 7:35pm | Accor Stadium, Sydney
State of Origin Outs: Cody Walker (Rabbitohs), Damien Cook (Rabbitohs), Keaon Koloamatangi (Rabbitohs), Cameron Murray (Rabbitohs), Josh Addo-Carr (Bulldogs)
Why the Rabbitohs will win: The Bulldogs have arguably been the most disappointing side in the competition all year, leading the wrong stats columns across the board. Last week's thumping to a bottom-eight side would have been demoralising, and players will still be hurting after being booed off the field. While the Rabbitohs are missing a host of Origin players, they should still have the structures and discipline in place to get the job done.
Why the Bulldogs will win: The only place to look is up when you're on the canvas. The Bulldogs have spot fires to contend with throughout the roster, and while they are showing signs of fatigue, they will be bolstered significantly with the mid-week signing of Gold Coast Titans (and former Bulldogs junior) young gun Toby Sexton who will bring some spark. Kyle Flanagan has been playing exceptionally well at hooker in NSW Cup and could prove to be a solid dummy-half combination, giving Reed Mahoney a short spell.
Fansided tip: Rabbitohs by 12
SuperCoach notes: With a bit of pressure being taken off by new recruit Toby Sexton, who will assume the number 7 jumper, Matt Burton could find some creative freedom for the remaining rounds of the year. Similarly, Toby Sexton has only played one NRL game this year, but in that match, he smashed out a 95. Jake Averillo has moved to fullback, where he was very good in 2022 - the spot has been filled all year by Hayze Perham, who has not managed to make the position his own and has consequently been dropped to NSW Cup this week.
Gold Coast Titans vs The Dolphins
Sunday 9th July 4:05pm | Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
State of Origin Outs: AJ Brimson (Titans), Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Titans), David Fifita (Titans), Moeaki Fotuaika (Titans), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins)
Why the Titans will win: The Dolphins will be without Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, who has been their X-factor all season. Further, their hooker Jeremy Marshall-King is carrying an injury that will probably see him through to the end of the season. He's one tweak away from finishing a match early, which would severely impact the Dolphin's attack. The Titans have looked like a defensively better side since the dramatic and abrupt dismissal of their coach, Justin Holbrook.
Why the Dolphins will win: The Titans will be giving up the edge in the forwards to the Dolphins in this one with a large chunk of muscle strike on Origin duty. The Dolphins were competitive against a Reece Walsh-less Broncos pack last week, just falling short. The Wayne Bennett-coachedย side will have plenty of crowd support in attendance for this local derby.
Fansided tip: Titans by 2
SuperCoach notes: Kodi Nikorima ($611K) is dual position 5/8 and HOK, and has been on a tear under Wayne Bennett, scoring 97 last week and averating 73 across three rounds. Sean O'Sullivan has looked at home since returning to the Dolphins after an extensive injury, putting on 62 last round.
NSW Blues vs Queensland Maroons
Wednesday 12th July 8:05pm | Accor Stadium, Sydney
Why the Blues will win: Embattled coach Brad Fittler has thrown the strategy book out the window and selected a team based on form shown in the past 1-2 weeks. He's on the record as saying he's selected a side 'to win', as opposed to suggestions he's aiming at blooding players for next year. Based on that, players will be a similar mindset to Fittler - that this game in Sydney could be their last (as well as their first, for a few).
Few in the game give as much effort across 80 minutes than James Tedesco, who, despite likely going down in history as one of NSW's best-ever players and captains, could be playing for the right to wear the sky blue in 2024. Despite the established combination, the halves pairing of Cody Walker on the left and Mitchell Moses on the right could deliver NSW more points. Throughout the series, the Blues have had little difficulty finding the attacking zone - the problem has been getting over the stripe.
Why the Maroons will win: The Maroons were average in Game One but showed immense resilience. In Game Two, they were scintillating, and Billy Slater has not had to make many changes throughout the series. This is a stark contrast to the waves of sweeping changes made by NSW. Queensland has the belief and arguably a more strategy-driven coach than NSW.
Queensland have already wrapped up the series in front of their home fans. The pressure will be entirely on the Blues, and NSW don't have a wonderful record of going well when Queensland are free to throw it around. The spine of Munster, Cherry Evans and Grant/Hunt is far too slick and experienced for NSW to deal with.
Fansided tip: Queensland by 12
