The St George Illawarra Dragons may not cop the criticism of some other teams, but the stats over the last decade and a bit since Wayne Bennett left are telling, and another campaign without finals could see yet another change at the helm.
Dragons' coach Anthony Griffin comes into 2023 as one of the most under-pressure coaches in the game, and with good reason.
His first two years in charge realistically have never seen the Dragons in line to play finals football, which, in a results-driven industry, is crucial.
The Dragons have played finals just twice since Bennett left at the end of 2011, and under Griffin, have won just 20 out of 48 games.
That said, the fan base have had enough, and after a 2022 season where youngsters were dropped over and over again, the team struggled to gain any sense of continuity and results got worse the longer the season went, Griffin will not be given long to succeed in 2023.
He hasn't been helped pre-season either by injuries and the no-fault stand-down of Talatau Amone.
With minimal recruitment or changes, it's difficult to see where the Dragons improve in 2023.
Recruitment report
Ins: Jacob Liddle (Wests Tigers, 2023), Nick Lui-Toso (2023), Michael Molo (2024), Ben Murdoch-Masila (New Zealand Warriors, 2024), Zane Musgrove (Wests Tigers, 2024)
Outs: Daniel Alvaro (Toulouse Olympique), George Burgess (retired), Poasa Faamausili (The Dolphins), Jackson Ford (New Zealand Warriors), Jack Gosiewski (North Queensland Cowboys), Andrew McCullough (retired), Josh McGuire (Warrington Wolves), Tariq Sims (Melbourne Storm)
Recruitment impact
As mentioned, the Dragons have made few, if any, waves in free agency this off-season, and the team will run onto the park for 2023 in a very similar state to the way it started in 2022.
Jacob Liddle has the potential to be an excellent dummy half, but hasn't made it there on a consistent basis yet, with the Tigers bringing Apisai Koroisau to the club before releasing Liddle in an attempt to increase their own attacking productivity.
Ben Murdoch-Masila and Zane Musgrove also join the club in the forwards - an area they have desperately struggled in recent years - but it's unclear (and frankly, unlikely) if either of them will be able to address the problems the Red V have had to this stage.
They lose plenty of names, but realistically, outside of Jackson Ford and Tariq Sims, not a lot has departed the club in way of substance on-field.
The big talking points
Will Griffin stick with youth?
It was supposed to be the beginning of the new era at the Dragons in 2022. Tyrell Sloan to play fullback, Jayden Sullivan working as a bench utility behind Talatau Amone, who did play most of the season at five-eighth.
Amone kicked on and took his game up the gears, having some good games - particularly the win against South Sydney in Wollongong, but they weren't consistent enough.
Sloan was dropped early in the season, Sullivan barely got a look in, and some of the forward selections were also baffling, while the Feagai brothers also took time to lock down a spot.
Now Griffin, with another year in the youngsters' legs, needs to let them play, and play for a prolonged period.
Sullivan should come into the halves alongside Hunt - which frankly is a combination that may not work immediately, while Sloan will have the number one jersey due to Cody Ramsey being out ill.
Griffin must put trust in the duo to play their roles in the spine, while also moving the likes of Jaiyden Hunt, Josh Kerr and Michael Molo into his calculations.
Can Jacob Liddle stay fit?
This, maybe more than any other, will be an incredibly important point for the Dragons heading into 2023.
The hooker, who joins the Red V from the Tigers, brings with him an ability to spark attacks to life, put forward packs on the front foot and hand quality delivery to spine players.
He just has never had a chance to do it for a prolonged period, with injuries regularly pushing his career progression back. You have to wonder whether consistent minutes could have ultimately kept him away from leaving Concord, and the joint-venture not looking to bring in Apisai Koroisau.
Not that Liddle is as good as Koroisau, but it would have been an area not nearly as urgently in need of an upgrade.
The Dragons will be hoping they can get that level out of Liddle for 24 games this year.
Do the middle third have enough quality?
The Dragons middle third really struggled in 2022 as the speed of the NRL continued to ramp up. They regularly were found wanting, out of position, and clutching at thin air.
It showed as well. The Dragons made more missed tackles than any other team by a substantial amount throughout 2022, while only narrowly avoiding the bottom-four for metres made with the ball in hand.
Polar opposite ends of those charts are good - just not the ends the Dragons are at.
That should have left recruitment chasing players in the middle third who could fix those issues, but if that was the question, then it's hard to see why anyone though Ben Murdoch-Masila, Zane Musgrove and Nick Lui-Toso was the answer.
In short, expect the same issues in the middle third for the Dragons that plagued them right throughout 2022.
Star player: Ben Hunt
Hunt is the star at the Dragons, and, according to most judges, should have finished second in last year's Dally M Medal race.
He single-handidly won a number of games for his side and probably kept them out of the bottom four. The difference when he was on the park against when he wasn't was one of the most noticeable in the competition.
Put simply, the Dragons were something of a rabble without him.
He will need to be at his best again in 2023 if the Dragons are to push anywhere near the top eight.
Player under pressure: Jack Bird
Bird may not be under pressure per se for a spot in the team, but he is under pressure to perform. To be the experienced, representative-calibre player who can take plenty of load off the shoulders of Hunt.
We all know exactly how important Hunt is to this Dragons team, but he is no good having to do everything.
Bird, who can play anywhere from the havles, to centre, to fullback, the second row and lock, will likely be used in a number of different roles this year.
But there is no difference in what he needs to provide out of any of them.
Frankly, his combination in attack with Ben Hunt, and his effort in defence, particularly when in the already mentioned poor middle third, could be all the difference in a number of games for the Dragons this year.
Breakout star: Tyrell Sloan
Sloan was supposed to have his breakout year during 2022. That ultimately didn't happen after he was dropped following Round 3, but that doesn't mean he won't be back this year.
There were signs in the first two games that suggested he will belong at this level at some point, even if not immediately.
With Ramsey likely to miss the season, Sloan will now get a prolonged shot in number one, and he has to make it count, both for his own future, and the good of the team.
2023 Draw impact
The Dragons have been left with one of the easier draws for 2023 on multiple fronts.
They double up against three teams out of last year's bottom four in the Titans, Tigers and Warriors, and also play newcomers the Dolphins twice.
They play the Sharks twice, but otherwise avoid last year's top four in a double up, while have the opening-round bye - a curse that has turned into something fantastic given their injury situation.
The Titans, Broncos, Sharks, Dolphins and Titans in their opening four games present some winnable games, while they also have their other two byes during the Origin period.
They also have a fair travel schedule, although worse than most Sydney clubs with seven visits to the airport likely.
Fixtures to watch
Round 4 vs Cronulla Sharks, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, 6:15pm, Sunday, March 26
The local derby is always a fun hit out, although why the NRL have lumped it onto a Sunday evening is anyone's guess. The Sharks have had the wood over the Dragons, but a lot of these matches tend to be closer than the ladder says it will be, so watch out for this one to be a real litmus test for the Dragons early on.
Round 8 vs Sydney Roosters, Allianz Stadium, 4pm, Tuesday, April 25
You could never write a list of matches to watch in any given NRL season and leave off the Anzac Day match. Now tradition, the Roosters and Dragons have met on the sacred public holiday since not long after the turn of the century. The Dragons came from the clouds to cause an upset in this fixture last year, and will be looking to repeat the dose this time around.
Round 25 vs Melbourne Storm, WIN Stadium, 7:35pm, Saturday, August 19
While you'd expect this game to be one-way traffic on paper, the Storm have actually had issues knocking the Dragons over in New South Wales recently. The Dragons have won three of the last five, and a night game in Wollongong, with a wind howling in off the beach, is always a tough one. If the Dragons are in finals contention, then a full house won't make the job for Melbourne any easier.
Prediction
Scott Pryde
Unfortunately, this is going to be a long old year for the Dragons. Ben Hunt is a one-man army, and he just doesn't have the support to drag this team anywhere near the finals.
They struggled last year and have taken all but no steps to improve on that.
If it all comes together with players like Zac Lomax, Moses Suli and young guns Tyrell Sloan and Jayden Sullivan, then maybe, but it's clutching at straws.
15th.
Jack Blyth
A ball has barely been kicked in 2023, and already the Dragons are dropping like flies.
Jayden Sullivan and Jack Bird went down in recent weeks but will be fit for Round 2, however they've lost Cody Ramsey and Josh Coric, and Talatau Amone has been stood down.
If they lose Ben Hunt, they'll be lucky to win a game. Their middle is short on depth, and more injuries there will have them falling apart. They'll fight it out for the dreaded wooden spoon.
17th.
Dan Nichols
It all depends on Ben Hunt. Scarily though, Hunt played to a Dally M medal-winning standard last year yet the Dragons still never looked like they would play finals.
Unless Zac Lomax has a peak Gasnier-like season, I just can't see how this Dragons side can score enough points to string a winning streak together.
Losing Tariq Sims made zero sense to me. Outside of Jaydn Su'A, this may be the least impressive forward pack in the competition.
14th.
Zero Tackle calculator: 15th
Zero Tackle's calculated prediction is the average tip of all three tipsters, with the lowest average the minor premiers, and the highest average the wooden spooners.
Charity Shield sums it up. Pretty strong side they fielded and were pathetic in first half. Sloan wants to be fullback, but boy is he a long long way from first grade standard. How many in a row have St Dud now lost? Griffin has showed us ZERO change has been made since last year, same woeful defensive style, same stupid errors, no discipline. If he’s coaching all year we definitely will get the spoon.