The battle for the final spots in this year’s top eight is on in earnest, and sadly one of the contenders will be left with bitter disappointment.
But for the other contenders, they’ll start to feel the weight of history as it attempts to crush their premiership prospects before a ball is even kicked. It’s an oft-repeated fact that no team outside the top four has ever won a premiership in the NRL era (1998 to now).
But could this be the year a club finally breaks from the shackles of history and pulls off a miracle? There are so many factors at play – a club that rests players before the finals might save them from injury and keep them fit, but a team that’s been playing sudden-death football for weeks leading in will be better prepared psychologically, if possibly more worn out.
Being as objective as possible, a team needs to possess three basic attributes before we can consider them a chance of breaking the drought and claiming a premiership from fifth place or lower.
- They need to win four games in a row (and be in form).
- They need a good away record – as at least three finals games will be.
- They need a good record against the top four.
So let’s have a look at the contenders.
Parramatta Eels
The Eels’ form has been impossible to predict. They’ve lost games they should have won, won games they should have lost and kept punters frustrated to no end – but at their best they are an excitement machine that can beat anyone. Their premiership window has been open in recent years, but will 2022 go down as another disappointment?
The Eels haven’t managed four wins in a row this year – the best they could put together was a three-game streak, and even that was just the one. Consistency could be the Eels’ undoing, but they also have one of the better records against the top sides in the NRL.
They’ve beaten Penrith twice and they’ve beaten Melbourne in Melbourne – but they haven’t been able to overcome the Sharks or Cowboys in one attempt at each. Their record against their fellow contenders also means they’ll be under pressure from the first week.
They’ve lost to South Sydney twice, have split results with the Roosters and also lost to Brisbane (who they face again this week). Though their 7-4 away record is on par with some of the best teams in the competition, it’s unlikely to be enough.
ZeroTackle says: If the Eels can make it to the preliminary final, you have to believe they’re a shout – but the big problem for them might be getting there. Very talented bunch but too inconsistent.
Sydney Roosters
There’s no argument that the Roosters are the NRL’s form side at the moment. Forget the four-game streak required to win a premiership, the Tri-colours are on a six-game tear and showing no signs of slowing down. Their bench is one of the best in the league, and they’re getting more players back each week and hitting their stride at the perfect time.
While their away record is a relatively unimpressive 5-6, half of those losses came during the club’s uncharacteristic four-game losing streak – and they haven’t lost since.
The Roosters’ record against the top four is negligible. They’ve lost twice to the Panthers, but also beat the Cowboys twice. They lost to Melbourne – who they play again this week – but beat the Sharks. Working against them is the fact they have the Storm and Rabbitohs to come before the finals – but if they can keep the winning streak alive they’ll be full of confidence and hard to beat.
They’re returning to their best and getting better each week. Luke Keary, James Tedesco and Joey Manu have been electric and brilliantly supported. Few could legitimately claim they’re not a genuine chance at ending the hoodoo.
ZeroTackle says: If any of these teams have a better chance than the rest, it’s the Roosters. They’re in incredible form, still improving, getting more players back from injury and leading the way in a number of key statistical areas. If the Panthers stumble, the Roosters could create history.
Brisbane Broncos
For all the history that already needs to be overcome, the Broncos have another unwanted record weighing them down. No team has won the premiership after conceding 50 points in a season, and the Broncos are in that category now following their 60-12 defeat at the hands of Melbourne.
The Broncos are also at the bottom end form-wise, having lost three of their last four games. Despite that, they've enjoyed a seven-game winning streak this year, proving they can get on a roll. While their away record is a decent 6-5, all of those losses bar one came against other teams in the finals.
Their form against the top four also doesn’t inspire confidence. The Broncos have lost to Penrith, lost to North Queensland twice and lost to Melbourne twice on their way to a 1-5 record. As for their likely Week 1 opponents, Brisbane have secured wins over the Eels and Rabbitohs (twice) this year – but they’ll be desperate to avoid the Roosters after losing both meetings.
ZeroTackle says: Just because Brisbane have far exceeded expectations, it doesn’t mean that they’re a premiership chance just yet. That’s not a bad thing either. The club has made incredible progress of late and regardless of what point their season ends, the future looks bright. Highly unlikely.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
The Rabbitohs started the year slowly as they adjusted to some big departures – namely Wayne Bennett and Adam Reynolds, but they’ve improved immensely over the back half of the season and with Latrell Mitchell back to his best.
The improved form of Lachlan Ilias and the red-hot try scoring of Alex Johnston have been just as impactful as the likes of Mitchell and Cam Murray. It's clear the Rabbitohs are another team building momentum at the right time.
Yes, they have a four-game winning streak. Importantly, it contained wins over Parramatta and Melbourne, who they could have to face on their way to a grand final. Their away record, while not that impressive, is on par with the Roosters – though they have showed inconsistencies in losses to the Dragons and Tigers.
Their top four record doesn’t inspire confidence – they’ve lost twice to Penrith, split their games against Melbourne and lost to Cronulla for a 1-4 split. Interestingly, we’re at Round 24 in the competition and South Sydney are about to meet the Cowboys for the first time all year.
ZeroTackle says: Like Parramatta, the Rabbitohs have a line-up with some of the game’s greatest entertainers who can tear a team apart – but they’ve struggled to reach that level consistently this year. They’re also finding form at the right time, much like the Roosters, but recent losses to top four opponents show they still have a way to go to close the gap.
Canberra Raiders
Ricky Stuart has already confirmed that the team have been treating every game like a semi-final for weeks, knowing that one loss could end their season. The Raiders have stayed in contention thanks to a fantastic finish to the season, but if they make it to the finals it’s hard to believe they won’t be exhausted .
If they win their next two games – which they have to – the Raiders will have secured their first four-game streak of the season, having put two three-match runs together to this point so far.
Their away record is on par with the majority of teams in this group, but the Raiders also have an unconvincing record against the top four. They’ve lost twice to Penrith and North Queensland and have split their series with Melbourne, although two wins over the Sharks brings their total to 3-5 - better than some of the others on the list.
They’re the only ones on this list who have played every team in the top four twice already, which gives them some extra insight should they make it that far.
ZeroTackle says: As fun as it is to ride the Raiders to the finals, it’s hard to believe that after weeks of already-intense contests and drama that the team might not be spent mentally and physically if they make it past Round 25.
They're still a shout for eighth, but as talented as Ricky Stuart’s men are, making the finals is their mountain to climb.
