Roosters 36 def. Broncos 4
2,000 – Total run metres for the Roosters, a 26.4% increase on their season average. Incredibly, the Roosters had 633 more Run Metres in the first half on their way to a 22-0 lead, finishing with 730 more run metres by full time. The Roosters have now overtaken the Bunnies for 1st in the comp in Points (110), along with ranking tops in Tries (20) and Try Assists 17. The early season concerns about the Roosters seem well in the rear view mirror now with the first month of the season now in the books.
100 – More tackles made by the Broncos in the 1st half than the Roosters (184 to 84). The Brisbane side now sit dead last in the comp this season for both missed tackles with 156 (Roosters are 1st with just 85) and ineffective tackles with 92 (Raiders are 1st with 40). Kodi Nikorima ranks 2nd worst in the NRL with 21 missed tackles, while Tevita Pangai (T-6th), Alex Glenn (14th) and Anthony Milford (T-19th) are all ranked in the 20 worst tacklers this season. Corey Oates has the most errors in the NRL this season with 12, Jamayne Isaako is 8th and Anthony Milford is tied for 26th. Troubling times for the Broncos after the first month of the season.
Warriors 26 def. Titans 10
91% - The Warriors astounding completion percentage against the Titans. Completing 30 of their 33 sets, committing just 5 errors and averaging 14.5 meters (29.5%) more per set than the Titans, the Warriors produced their best statistical game since round 1. The Warriors are now 2nd in offloads, 3rd in completion rate, 4th in tackle breaks and 5th in both points and post contact metres.
Minus 59 - The Titans point difference after 4 rounds. If the Titans remain this uncompetitive they will finish with a staggering minus 354 point difference for the season which would be the 3rd worst season result in the NRL since 2004 with only the 2012 Knights at minus 493 and 2013 Eels at minus 366 faring worse. The 14 Titans errors Friday night leave the team tied for 2nd worst with 54 errors on the season while also sitting 2nd worst with 31 penalties conceded.
Panthers 9 def. Tigers 8
60% - The Panthers meagre set completion percentage in their fortuitous comeback win on Friday. The Panthers remain dead last with a deeply concerning 62% set completion rate on the year (Sharks with 68% are 2nd worst, the league average is 74%). The Panthers still rank last in the competition for handling errors with 47, 7 more than any other team. They are also last for all errors with 62, 8 more than Sharks and Titans who are tied for 2nd worst. Having conceded the 3rd most penalties this season (29) there is plenty of room for growth from the foot of the mountains if coach Cleary can get the Panthers sorted. If they do however, it is not too hard to envision them getting on one of their familiar rolls and reeling of 4 or 5 straight wins. They literally can’t play much worse at this point.
0 – The Tigers were the only team not to record a single linebreak in Round 4. Despite breaking 30 tackles against the leagues worst ranked defence, the Tigers were unable to capitalise and ultimately lost a game in which they won the possession battle (52% to 48%). The Tigers are second in the comp in post contact metres this season with 1,982, trailing only the Melbourne Storm (2,019), and 6th in tackle breaks with 127. The Tigers are playing risk averse footy completing at 78% of their sets, 4th in the comp, and ranking 5th best in errors. By not making mistakes of their own and capitalising on their opponents mistakes to break long runs, utilising utilise their support runs, which they lead the NRL in at 554, the Tigers look an improved side in 2019 despite their hard luck loss on the weekend.
Sea Eagles 13 def. Rabbitohs 12
1 – The unexplainable margin of victory at Lottoland on Saturday. In what was possibly the shock of the season thus far, the Sea Eagles overcame the loss of Tom Trbojevic to stun the heavily favoured Bunnies. The Sea Eagles took the points despite losing the possession battle convincingly with only 47% of possession, being outrun by 204 metres, struggling with Bunnies kicking game diffusing just 58% of their kicks, completing just 58% of their sets and committing a whopping 20 errors to their opponents 8. Statistically, there is no reason the Sea Eagles won this game. There really isn’t. And that is part of what makes footy great.
12 – Despite averaging 29.3 points per game heading into the round, the Rabbitohs were simply unable to convert their dominance over Manly to the scoreboard and went down. The only real statistical blemish from their early season dominance was the 37 missed tackles, 36% up from their season average of 24. A combined 5 errors from the halves didn’t help either, but the Bunnies will be looking to get back on track this week against the Warriors.
Raiders 30 def. Cowboys 12
53% - The possession rate for the Raiders on Saturday. The Raiders are typically thought of as having an explosive attack, but in a surprising turn this season they actually lead the NRL in possession rate at 54%, demonstrating their ability to control games this year. The Raiders have become masters of the dummy half run this season, with 77 to date. This is 15 more than the 2nd ranked Rabbitohs and highlights the evolution of Josh Hodgson, the surprising acclimation of Jack Wighton and the aggressiveness of the Raider attack.
30 – Another miserable defensive effort saw the Cowboys allow 30 points to the Raiders. After conceding just 12 points to the Dragons in Rd 1 the Cows have since allowed 29 to the Broncos, 42 to the Sharks and now 30 to Green Machine. The Cowboys have now conceded a league worst 113 points at a ghastly 28.25 per game. They are minus 51 in for and against and sit 2nd last on the ladder. While much attention has been paid to the attacking struggles of North Queensland, including their 15 errors on the weekend, there needs to also be grave concern for their defence especially considering they have played 3 of their 4 games at home so far.
Eels 24 def. Sharks 12
50.2 – The average set distance for the Eels as they continually steamrolled their way down field on the way to 1,909 run metres for the game. The Eels are 2nd in the NRL this year for run metres at 1,705 per game with Blake Ferguson and Clinton Gutherson leading all players with 880 and 826 metres respectively. With Dally M Winner Roger Tuivasa-Sheck sitting 3rd at 783 the Eels dynamic duo are well infront. Who would have predicted the Eels would have the top two metre runners in the NRL after 4 rounds? The Eels are averaging an impressive 285 more run metres than in 2018, a 17% increase on a year ago.
5 – The number of Sharks missing from their first choice starting 13. The loss of their classier veterans is beginning to hurt Cronulla and while the 18 offloads, 32 tackle breaks and just 5 penalties conceded were encouraging signs for the Sharks, they were outclassed and outgained by the Eels all game. The Sharks finished with 235 less run metres and 75 less post contact metres. Despite a better effort this week Cronulla has still conceded the most penalties in the NRL with 37 (6 more than the 2nd worst Titans) and have committed the equal 2nd most errors with 54.
Storm 18 def. Bulldogs 16
5 – Errors for the Storm in their lucky escape against a game Bulldogs squad. Coming into the game averaging 10.6 errors per game, halving their error count Sunday was likely their saving grace. Encouragingly for the Storm in an off game they were still able to total 626 post contact metres, 124 more than the Dogs, led by the Browmich’s with Jesse tallying 67 and Kenny 61. The Storm rank 1st in the NRL with 504.7 post contact metres per game, 47.8 per game above the league average while averaging 38.3 tackle breaks per game, also 1st in the league.
20 – The amount of offloads by the Bulldogs on Sunday. The Bulldogs lead the NRL after 4 rounds with 58 offloads with their 20 against the Storm being well up on the 12.6 per game average coming in. Making this willingness to play second phase ball is their simply awesome set completion rate. The Bulldogs are the most efficient team in the competition after the first month and fast becoming the statistical darlings of the league by completing their sets at a league leading 84%, well clear of the second placed Storm & Warriors at 80% each. On Sunday the Dogs completed 83% of their sets yet were beaten in this category by Melbourne who ran at 85% and were desperately unlucky not to come away with the points.
Dragons 13 def. Knights 12
2 – The number of weeks in a row that Corey Norman has kicked a match winning field goal for the Dragons. In an incredibly close match, Norman’s boot was literally the difference between the teams. The Dragons were well held in recording just 2 linebreaks against the Knights after putting 7 on the Broncos the week before and well done on their 4.6 per game average. They do however still sit 3rd in the NRL for linebreaks this season and 2nd in tackle breaks with 144. The Dragons backs were in a tackle breaking mood on Sunday with a combined 23 tackle breaks from their back five, who also all eclipsed the 100 metre run mark.
7 – The total number of offloads for the Knights, right in line with their average of 6.3 per game. This leaves the Knights dead last in the league and their average is less than half of that of the Bulldogs (14.5). With the Knights having the 4th worst running game in the NRL at 1,491.7 metres per game despite David Klemmer ranking as the Number 1 forward this season with 192.25 metres per game. With three early losses despite playing 3 of their 4 games at home, the Knights need to change it up going forward and introducing some second phase play and backing their players to offload and create could be just the spark they need before the finals get away from them.
All statistics courtesy of NRL.com
Any trends you have noticed this season? Stats you would like to see analysed? Want to brag about your Fantasy team? (I am top 4% in SuperCoach and top 6% in NRL Fantasy, not to be bragging, but...) Let’s hear it in the comments. As always, best of luck to your team this weekend.
Trust in the data!
Scoop.
