By The Numbers: Round 3

A Manly revival, Dogs shock the Tigers and Bronco heartbreak headlined a massive Round 3 in the NRL.

Broncos 24 vs Dragons 25

7 – Linebreaks for the Dragons while the Broncos could muster just 1. Add in 40 Tackle breaks and 9 offloads and the Dragons looked more dangerous Thursday night than in previous Rounds. Korbin Sims debuted with a bang over his 51 minutes with 1 line break, 6 tackle breaks and a try, but the concerning Dragons trend of underutilising their bench continues to drive me nuts with Luciano Leilua playing just 9 minutes, Zac Lomax just 6 and Jeremy Lattimore 33. Yes, they are making their full 8 substitutions but the wear and tear they are putting on their key forwards will come back to haunt them yet again late this season.

Want to read more about the Dragons rotation issues and their effect on their late-season fades? Read my article at www.zerotackle.com/the-numbers-behind-the-dragons-late-season-fades-41983/

14 – The error count for the Broncos contributing heavily to a mediocre 69% completion rate (the Dragons completed at 84%). Corey Oates was the primary culprit with 4 errors, 3 of which were handling errors, along with young Thomas Flegler who had 2 in just 24 minutes. Anthony Milford’s defensive struggles continued with just a 66.7% tackle efficiency rate with Nikorima not much better at 77.8%. The Broncos halves will continue to be targeted with such an obvious defensive weakness.

Raiders 17 vs. Knights 10

51 - The whopping tackle break count for the Green Machine. After totalling 57 in the first 3 games combined, the Raiders took tackle busting to the next level against the Knights, who now rank last in the comp with 118 missed tackles on the year. Leading the way were John Bateman and Charnze Nicoll-Klockstad with 9 each.  The hard running Raiders amassed 403 more Run Metres than the Knights, a massive 219 more post contact metres and an extra 9 metres per set on the Knights.

44 – The Knights held just 44% of possession, on Friday, granting the Raiders an extra 6minutes and 56seconds of possession. David Klemmer, who had previously been in rampant form, was held to a season low 8.5 metres per carry to stifle the Knights go forward.  Continuing a worrying trend for the Novacastrians their average metres per run has fallen each week 9.23 (vs Sharks) to 8.11 (vs. Panthers) to 8.02 metres in Round 3. A lack of go forward combined with a ridiculous 51 missed tackles leaves the Knights looking vulnerable after the first 3 rounds.

Eels 18 vs. Roosters 32

59 – At the 59 minute mark Mitchell Moses converted Maika Sivo’s 2nd try of the night with the Eels up in this see-saw battle only for the Roosters to turn it on with a 3 try to nil finish to break Eel hearts. With 14 offloads the Eels continued their strong 2nd phase play, ranking 4th in the comp after 3 rounds. Their defensive efficiency was strong as well at an excellent 90.7%, despite making an extra 49 tackles than the Roosters. Limited minutes for Kaufusi (18), Salmon (14) and Evans (33) off the bench may have contributed to the Eels late game fatigue.

9 – The Rooster error count Friday night, their best of the year and a 40% reduction on the previous 2 weeks. The Roosters added 5 linebreaks to their season tally to sit equal 2nd in the comp after 3 rounds with 14. Their team work, led again by Luke Keary was on display again with the Roosters now up to 11 try assists, good for 3^rd in the NRL.  The Roosters cut down their mistakes in the better conditions and with Cronk due to come back this week they should be able to build on the momentum of a good win against an in-form Eels outfit

Start your prep for Round 4 with all the changes for each club in the Team Lists https://www.zerotackle.com/round-4-team-lists-2019-42606/

Sea Eagles 46 vs Warriors 12

1,725 – The run metre total for Manly on the weekend. After a poor 1,351 in Round 1 followed by an improved 1,520 against the Roosters, the Sea Eagles improved their running by 22% on their Round 1 effort. This column has been lamenting the loss of Tom Trbojevic and the effect of his absence over the first 2 rounds. But no one could have expected the incredible return Turbo Tommy produced in Round 3. Dazzling the Warriors with 2 tries, 2 try assists, 3 linebreaks, 9 tackle breaks and 175 run metres was one damn fine return to the NRL for Tommy and couldn’t have come at a better time for the Sea Eagles.

40 – Missed tackles for the Warriors. Combined with their 24 ineffective tackles the Warriors whiffed on 20% of their tackles. Take that in for a moment. 1 in 5 tackles were not completed by the Warriors. While the defensive side of the game has long been the trouble for the New Zealanders, they were completely inept against Manly. Now ranked 6^th worst for ineffective tackles and 8^th worst for missed tackles, the Warriors need to raise their defensive game for this week’s clash with the Titans to bring home the points.

Cowboys 16 vs Sharks 42

6 – Linebreaks for the Sharks in their belting of the Cowboys. The Sharks now lead the comp with 15 Linebreaks this season, with Si Katoa (3), Josh Morris (3), Josh Dugan (3) and surprising rookie forward Briton Nikora (2). To show the Sharks line breaking dominance, the Titans and Panthers have a Team Total of just 4 linebreaks on the Season! Showing that they are not just an attacking force but rather a well rounded side the recorded an exceptional 91.6% tackle efficiency rate with just 12 missed tackles (the Cowboys had 33) on Saturday. The Sharks sit 4^th best in the NRL for missed tackles after three rounds and will need to be at their defensive best for what should be a cracker of a game this week against the Eels.

42 – The total point conceded by the Cowboys on Saturday, 1 more than they had conceded in the previous two games combined. 33 missed tackles, 20 ineffective tackles and 6 line breaks conceded are all worrying stats for the North Queenslanders. To be so comprehensively beaten despite having just 9 errors (the Sharks had 16) and conceding only 6 penalties is serious cause for concern ahead of their clash with the Raiders this week.

Panthers 2 vs Storm 32

58 – The Panthers completion % against the Storm, a stat they rank equal last in the comp for along with the Sharks at a miserable 63%. The Panthers inability to finish their sets was heavily hindered by their whopping 17 errors, bringing them up to 33 on the season which is 2^nd worst in the NRL. A whopping 40 missed tackles and just 1,259 run metres saw the Panthers struggling to go forwards and losing the battle of field position to the Storm throughout the night. The lack of run is a massive concern for the Panthers right now as they sit dead last with just 3,975 run metres on the season at 1,325 per game, 130 less than the 2^nd worst team, the Knights.

100 – The Storms kick defusal % against Penrith, flawless in 16 attempts. In addition to forcing errors and missed tackles from the Panthers, the Storm held their nerve against the Panthers vaunted kicking game with aplomb on Saturday night. Melbourne broke another 40 tackles to consolidate their position as top in the league with 120 on the season, 11 more than the 2^nd placed Dragons. The Purple Reign seems set to continue in Melbourne this season.

Tigers 8 vs Bulldogs 22

89 – The Bulldogs completion rate in their shock upset of the top of the ladder Tigers. The Bulldogs have been completing their sets at a phenomenal rate this season topping the comp at 85%, well clear of the 2^nd placed Storm, Dragons and Tigers who are all tied at 78%. Having committed just 18 errors this season (the Panthers had 17 on the weekend alone) Canterbury-Bankstown have been nothing short of remarkable with their ball handling and efficiency this season and if this continues I tip that this won’t be the last big upset the Dogs cause.

8 – The error count difference which the Tigers were on the wrong end of (12 to 4). With the majority of their stats being right around their season averages, the turnovers proved very costly and ended the Tigers brief run at the top of the table. The improvement in the Tigers this year has still been impressive, with the side averaging 265 more run meters per game than they managed in 2018. Another very noticeable difference has been in the Tigers aggressive running, with the side averaging 15.3 runs that engage the line per game this season as opposed to a league worst 9.1 per game in 2018.

Rabbitohs 28 vs Titans 20

1 – The Bunnies rank number 1 in the comp in 6 attacking categories (Points, Tries, Goals, Supports, Lines Engaged and Try Assists) and while they had a scare from Titans on Sunday, they were able to score 26 points and stay top of the league with 88 points this season, 12 better than the 2nd placed Storm . This column preached the importance of supports early in the season and their correlation with winning and the Rabbitohs lead the way in this category by a long way with 450 supports for the season which is 12 per game better than the next best clubs (Storm, Wests and Knights). The Bunnies attack is rolling and if they can keep up their scoring average of 29.3 points per game they will finish the year the highest scoring team since 2012.

8 – The penalty count difference that went against the Titans on Sunday (9 to 1). In a game decided by 8 points, giving away an extra 8 penalties is a killer. Jarrod Wallace was the main offender with 4 but this has been an ongoing issue all season for the Gold Coast with the Titans being the 2^nd most penalised team in the comp conceding 8.3 per game (traditional penalty merchants the Sharks are first at 10.7 per game).

68 – Bonus stat for the Titans to acknowledge Anthony “the” Don passing David Mead as the Titans all time leading try scorer with his 64^th minute try against the Bunnies. If ever there was a player to root for, mainly because he reminds you of every Joe Bloe who ever laced up a pair of boots in their local comp, it has to be The Don. Congrats Anthony.

Any trends you have noticed this season? Stats you would like to see analysed? Let’s hear it in the comments. Got a theory on a team you want tested? Drop me a line and as always, best of luck to your team on the weekend.

Trust in the data!

        Scoop.