For St George Illawarra fans, the late-season fade has become the norm.
Seeing promising campaigns derailed in 2016 where they lost 7 of their last 9, 2017 where the Red V was Top Four midway through the year only to crash out and miss the finals by a single win and 2018, where they fell from the top of the ladder in Round 17 to seventh by seasonโs end, has crushed the hearts of the faithful.
Surely the Dragons are doomed to repeat this pattern in 2019, right? Not if Scoop gets his way.
If Coach Paul McGregor can learn the error of his ways by fixing the Dragons rotations, the Dragons could have the firepower to finish top four.
2019 Average Substitution times
How do the Dragons fare with their in-game substitutions? Is this where they are going wrong? The table below compares the Dragons against last seasonโs top sides in terms of which minute they made their substitutions on average.
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
| Dragons | 21 | 26 | 35 | 49 | 55 | 60 | 69 | 74 |
| Roosters | 25 | 28 | 36 | 53 | 59 | 63 | 68 | 75 |
| Storm | 20 | 26 | 33 | 50 | 56 | 62 | 68 | 74 |
| Rabbitohs | 17 | 25 | 38 | 51 | 56 | 63 | 69 | 73 |
| Sharks | 21 | 28 | 38 | 50 | 55 | 61 | 67 | 73 |
| Cowboys | 22 | 26 | 33 | 45 | 54 | 58 | 61 | 67 |
The data shows the Dragons right there with the best teams in the timing of their substitutions, which can always be affected by injuries but over the course of the season shows a very accurate reflection of the rotation plan. This is not causing the Red Vโs late-season fades. What about the number of minutes they are riding their forwards then? Read on to find out.
Want to know how the rest of the teams fare with their substitutions? Check out this article by Alicia Newton over at NRL.com for more: https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/01/25/stat-attack-how-your-club-uses-the-interchange/
Workhorse forwards
Minutes played by the forwards in 2018
Letโs look at the split of minutes across the forwards and see if this is where it all went wrong.
| Player | Games | Minutes | Minutes Per Game (MPG) | % of possible game time |
| T. Sims | 23 | 1,770 | 76.95 | 96.19% |
| C. McInnes | 24 | 1,779 | 74.12 | 92.65% |
| T. Frizell | 21 | 1,480 | 70.47 | 88.09% |
| J. De Belin | 23 | 1,330 | 57.82 | 72.28% |
| J. Graham | 24 | 1,166 | 48.58 | 60.72% |
| P. Vaughn | 19 | 921 | 48.47 | 60.59% |
| L. Leuilua | 15 | 609 | 40.60 | 50.75% |
| L. Ah Mau | 23 | 906 | 39.39 | 49.23% |
| J. Latimore | 23 | 678 | 29.47 | 36.84% |
| J. Host | 6 | 124 | 20.66 | 25.83% |
| B. Lawrie | 8 | 155 | 19.37 | 24.21% |
| H. Sele | 4 | 76 | 19.0 | 23.75% |
Note: McInnes had an outlier 57-minute game in round 24. Vaughn played just 11 minutes in round 21 (inj.).
The issue here is the spread of minutes among the forwards. Sele (23.75%), Lawrie (24.21%), Host (25.83%) and Latimore (36.84%) appear underused. Letโs compare this with the regular bench forwards for the Storm.
| Player | Games | Minutes | Average minutes | % of possible game time |
| F. Kaufusi | 18 | 1,421 | 78.94 | 98.68% |
| C. Smith | 23 | 1,763 | 76.65 | 95.81% |
| R. Hoffman | 20 | 1,347 | 67.35 | 84.18% |
| D. Finucane | 15 | 816 | 54.40 | 68.00% |
| J. Stimson | 21 | 1,104 | 52.57 | 65.71% |
| J.Bromwich | 17 | 800 | 47.05 | 58.82% |
| N. Asofa-Solomona | 22 | 929 | 42.22 | 52.78% |
| T. Glasby | 21 | 880 | 41.90 | 52.38% |
| K. Bromwich | 22 | 853 | 38.77 | 48.46% |
| C. Welch | 23 | 816 | 35.47 | 44.34% |
| B.Smith | 15 | 416 | 27.73 | 34.66% |
| S. Kasiano | 13 | 318 | 24.46 | 30.57% |
| H. Grant | 1 | 23 | 23.00 | 28.75% |
| T.Kamikamica | 5 | 90 | 18.00 | 22.50% |
| P. Kaufusi | 2 | 31 | 15.50 | 19.37% |
| A.Vete | 1 | 15 | 15.00 | 18.75% |
In stark contrast to the Dragons interchange forwards, the Storm show plenty of faith in their regular bench players. Kenny Bromwich (48.46%), Welch (35.47%), Asofa-Solomona (42.22%) and even noted short burst weapon Sam Kasiano (30.57%) played extensive minutes in 2018. The Dragons also used 4 fewer forwards than Storm on the season. This is where the Dragons must improve in 2019 to match it with NRLโs top tier sides, spreading the minutes across their depth.
Minute allocation
First 12 games vs. last 12 games
Letโs split the season in half using the Dragons round 13 bye as the divider and see if there is a change in the minutes for the pack from the first half to the second half.
| Player | 1st 12 Games | Last 12 games | Difference |
| J. Stimson | 44.66 | 58.50 | +13.84 |
| T. Glasby | 37.70 | 45.72 | +8.02 |
| B.Smith | 24.66 | 32.33 | +7.67 |
| J.Bromwich | 45.87 | 48.11 | +2.24 |
| K. Bromwich | 37.80 | 39.58 | +1.78 |
| N. Asofa-Solomona | 41.58 | 43.00 | +1.42 |
| F. Kaufusi | 78.33 | 79.55 | +1.22 |
| C. Welch | 36.36 | 34.66 | -1.70 |
| C. Smith | 78.54 | 74.91 | -3.63 |
| D. Finucane | 56.25 | 52.28 | -3.97 |
| S. Kasiano | 25.09 | 21.00 | -4.09 |
| R. Hoffman | 76.63 | 56.00 | -20.63 |
| T.Kamikamica | N/A | 18.00 | N/A |
| P. Kaufusi | N/A | 15.50 | N/A |
| A.Vete | 0.00 | 15.00 | N/A |
| H. Grant | 23.00 | N/A | N/A |
Note: Harry Grant played in Rd.11 as a backup Hooker in Cam Smithโs absence. Hoffmanโs 2nd half was marred by 3 games with shorter minutes due to injury or return from injury (Rd. 25).
| Player | 1st 12 Games MPG | Last 12 games MPG | Difference |
| L. Leuilua | 18.00 | 51.90 | +33.90 |
| H. Sele | 14.66 | 32.00 | +17.34 |
| J. Host | 6.00 | 20.66 | +14.66 |
| B. Lawrie | 10.50 | 22.33 | +11.83 |
| L. Ah Mau | 36.25 | 42.81 | +6.56 |
| J. Latimore | 27.81 | 31.00 | +3.19 |
| T. Sims | 75.75 | 78.27 | +2.52 |
| J. De Belin | 56.83 | 58.90 | +2.07 |
| J. Graham | 48.33 | 48.83 | +0.50 |
| C. McInnes | 77.66 | 77.25 | -0.41 |
| P. Vaughn | 51.08 | 44.00 | -7.08 |
| T. Frizell | 74.41 | 65.22 | -9.19 |
As we see Leilua, Lawrie, Host Ah Mau and Sele (1 2nd half game) increased their minutes significantly, while Vaughn (before injury) and Frizell saw significant decreases in their minutes. Rather than increasing the minutes of their key forwards in the key games before the finals, the Dragons were reducing them likely due to the fatigue from the heavy workload in the early season (We will ignore the ridiculous experiment with Jason Nightingale in the forwards, emergency or not).
Comparison of the predominately interchange Forward playing time
| Dragons | Percentage of possible game time | Storm | Percentage of possible game time |
| Ah Mau | 49.23% | Asofa-Solomona | 52.78% |
| Host | 25.80% | K. Bromwich | 48.46% |
| Latimore | 36.84% | Welch | 44.34% |
| Lawrie | 24.21% | Kasiano | 30.57% |
| Average | 34.02% | Average | 44.03% |
The Dragons often carried a utility, such as Kurt Mann, as their 4th interchange player in 2018 which along with putting more minutes on the forwards also makes comparison a somewhat inexact science. But in the instances where the Dragons would carry four forwards, as the Storm typically do, we see they occupy 9.99% less playing time that their Storm counterparts (worse when Kasiano is replaced by a more traditional forward like Stimson). This is yet more wear and tear being placed on the Dragons forwards and another contributing factor to their late-season fades.
Interested in seeing the minute stats for more teams? Check out SuperCoaches minutes tracker at:ย https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com/2018minutes.php
Left on the bench...
Depth in the forwards was a key factor for each of the Top Four teams of 2018. Faith in the interchange forwards proved to be just as important and exactly where the Red-V went wrong. The Dragons had a staggering 4 instances where a Forward never left the bench (Leilua Rd.2, Sele Rd.7, Lawrie Rd.11, Host Rd.14). In addition, there were four instances where a Forward played less than 10 minutes. The chart below shows the comparison with 2018โs Top Four. These additional minutes, tackles, hit-ups and more took a toll on the Dragons forwards and this, Scoop believes, is the primary reason for the Dragons late-season fades.
| Team | Games with a player who played Zero Minutes | Games with a player who played less than 10 minutes |
| Dragons | 4 | 4 |
| Sharks | 1 | 1 |
| Rabbitohs | 0 | 4 |
| Storm | 0 | 5 |
| Roosters | 0 | 0 |
Note: Kurt Baptiste had one zero minute and three less than 10 minutes games as the reserve Hooker for the Tri-Colours, but this is not included as we are looking at the forward rotations. Jai Field had one for the Dragons in Rd. 25 too, but also not relevant to our focus.
Can the Dragons address this glaring issue? Time will tell. With Ah Mau now a Warrior, Sele projected to start for Kikau at the Panthers and De Belin stood down (for now), it will take a massive leap of faith by Coach McGregor to trust in his interchange forwards. The Top Four have provided the template and itโs time for the Dragons to turn to newcomer Korbin Sims along with holdovers Blake Lawrie, Jacob Host and the enigmatic Luciano Leilua to deliver quality minutes from the bench and preserve their lethal starting pack for late in the season and end the run of late-season slides.
To experiment with building your own perfect Dragons side check out Zero Tackleโs excellent team builder at: https://www.zerotackle.com/rugby-league/pick-your-team/
So get busy Dragons fans! Let Coach McGregor know that Scoop has figured it out and now he can finally take the Red V to the promised land. Well, that and sorting out the whole Hunt / Norman / Widdop troika, but letโs just fix the late-season fades first.
Agree or Disagree? Got another theory? Letโs hear it in the comments. Got a theory on another team you want to be tested? Drop me a line and donโt forget to check out more of Scoopโs in-depth analysis of the numbers at: https://fairhallmatt.wixsite.com/scoop-sportsanalysis
Dragons should have signed McGuire, a hard nut that would have put a rocket up the team
G’day Daffy,
Thanks for reading the article. Great suggestion with McGuire, could have added some much needed starch to the lineup. Be interesting to see where these talks with Trent Merton lead.
Trust in the data!
Scoop
Good article Matthew.
Just one thing – a projected fade-out would suggest that Saints will actually win a few games & be near the top by mid to late season,
I greatly fear that there will actually be no fade-out this year as per above observation.
G’day Phoenix,
Thanks for reading the article. In my defence, I wrote that piece during the Pre-Season before things started to truly unravel for the Red V. However through 2 rounds they are making the same mistakes with their forwards, which has only been compounded with the loss of Frizell. Still a long way to go but things are not off to a good start for the Dragons.
Trust in the data
Scoop
Scoop you have unearthed some realy good stats . Surely a nrl club’s coaching staff would be looking at these stats also ? If not have you ever thought about coaching and how do we get those stats to Mary? I go to nearly 20 games a year and would say I’m recognized in the dragons inner circle due to my commitment and banners . But as soon as you mention what everyone else can see about the club you get brushed .
G’day dra01,
Thanks for reading the article mate. Really appreciate the feedback. Fans like yourself who give to our clubs are a big part of what makes our game so great, so thank you. I do believe that NRL clubs are certainly looking at the stats but I also believe that analytics is a tremendously underutilised resource in our great game and Mary could quite literally be unaware of the extent of his rotation numbers with his forwards. He may well just be seeing that they are making their 8 substitutions and at times of the match that are consistent with the league wide trends (though he did make only 6 subs on the weekend…). Whether or not the Dragons dig deeper into their analytics, I don’t know but it certainly doesn’t look like it from the outside. My advice to help the Dragons is to remember that everyone has opinions, it is generally only when we can back our opinions up with stats and data that our opinions truly get listened to. So use the key points from the article or even forward it on to the club so you can be heard. Not everyone embraces analytics in the game, especially “old school” coaches and front offices, but as you know yourself there is a mountain of value to be gained by embracing the numbers. Thanks again dra01.
Trust in the numbers!
Scoop
Good points scoop thanks for the reply . Cheers