Penrith Panthers vs. Sydney Roosters
Panthers Stadium, 7:50pm, Friday October 2
Team News: Dylan Edwards, Viliame Kikau and Stephen Crichton return at the expense of Daine Laurie, Matt Burton and Spencer Leniu, with Tyrone May and Kurt Capewell dropping to the bench.
Freddy Lussick comes in for the injured Jake Friend, while Joey Manu and Brett Morris replace Mitchell Aubusson and Matt Ikuvalu, who leaked five tries down their edge against South Sydney. Isaac Liu returns at lock pushing Angus Crichton to the bench, joined by Lindsay Collins, which sees Nat Butcher and Poasa Faamausili drop out.
Prediction: You go off recent form, then this a towel up. A 52-point loss against a 15-game win streak. But this is the Roosters. They won't play like that again. However, their confidence will be at its lowest ebb in the last three years. Penrith's will be sky high. And you could see the drop from the tricolours when Friend exited early last week, they seem flat at the wrong time of the season.
This won't be a thrashing of any sort, but a squad as tight-knit as the Panthers will pick apart the Roosters, despite an early arm wrestle. Once again, Nathan Cleary's class will outweigh his future Blues' halves partner Luke Keary, and earn the mountain men a home preliminary final. Panthers by 2.
Canberra Raiders vs. Cronulla Sharks
GIO Stadium, 5:40pm, Saturday October 3
Team News: The cavalry returns, with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad replacing Adam Cook, Jarrod Croker and Jordan Rapana replacing Matt Timoko and Harley Smith-Shields in the centres, Jack Wighton and George Williams come in for Matt Frawley and Sam Williams. Their entire bench drops out, with Hudson Young, Corey Harawira-Naera, Sia Soliola and Siliva Havili dropping to the pine. Josh Papalii starts at prop with English duo John Bateman and Elliot Whitehead in the back-row, and Joe Tapine locks the scrum.
Chad Townsend returns weeks after a shoulder charge on Kalyn Ponga at halfback, as does Josh Dugan at centre, Sione Katoa on the wing, Blayke Brailey at hooker, Toby Rudolf at lock and Siosifa Talakai on the bench. Wade Graham shifts to the second-row with Connor Tracey at five-eighth with Scott Sorensen on the bench, as Nene Macdonald, Mawene Hiroti, Teig Wilton, Billy Magoulias and Daniel Vasquez drop out of the side.
Prediction: This match is a lot more straight forward… Canberra rested all their stars last week, and still beat the Sharks 38-28. Cronulla were missing a few but not anywhere comparable to the Raiders' missing men, a few added layers of class will blow the Sharks off the field, as does the home advantage.
Cronulla enter the finals as the first team in the NRL era to enter the finals series without beating a top eight side. Not one. And once again they won't come Saturday, with a big Raiders win setting up a potential Grand Final rematch in the second week of the finals. Raiders by 28.
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Melbourne Storm vs. Parramatta Eels
Suncorp Stadium, 7:50pm, Saturday October 3
Team News: Only five Melbourne players from last week's loss to the Dragons are in their 17 this week. Josh Addo-Carr, Brenko Lee, Justin Olam and Suliasi Vunivalu come into the backline for Sandor Earl, Ricky Leutele, Paul Momirovski and Isaac Lumelume, while Cam Munster and Jahrome Hughes replace Ryley Jacks and Cooper Johns in the halves.
Jesse Bromwich replaces Tui Kamikamica at prop, while Cam Smith's inclusion at hooker sees Brandon Smith drop to the bench. Kenny Bromwich, Felise Kaufusi and Nelson Asofa-Solomona are the new back-row with Tom Eisenhuth dropping to the interchange, joined by Tino Faasuamaleaui. Chris Lewis, Max King, Aaron Booth, Darryn Schonig and Aaron Pene drop out.
Dylan Brown returns with Will Smith dropping to the bench. Michael Jennings comes in at centre for Brad Takairangi, and the rested duo of Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Shaun Lane are back, forcing Kane Evans and Andrew Davey to the bench. Marata Niukore is back on the pine with Oregon Kaufusi, Daniel Alvaro and George Jennings out.
Prediction: The Eels were minutes away from losing their top four place to Canberra, and while they did enough to sneak in, the way things are going, it could be a straight-set exit for Parramatta. They've scored the least amount of points of any top eight side this season, and despite the return of Dylan Brown, a heavy loss seems imminent.
Melbourne made 17 changes to their side last week and still only lost in the final quarter. They have so much class and experience return this week, ignore the 14-0 win the Eels had the last time these sides clashed. It's irrelevant. The Storm were without Munster or Cam Smith, they're too resilient to be upset up at Suncorp. Troubling signs for Parramatta. Melbourne by 20.
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs. Newcastle Knights
ANZ Stadium, 4:05pm, Sunday October 4
Team News: Jaydn Su'A comes back from a weeks suspension on the right edge which means Cam Murray returns to lock. Liam Knight goes back to the bench, and Hame Sele drops out.
Lachlan Fitzgibbon's return pushes Sione Mata'utia to the bench and Brodie Jones out.
Prediction: Is it just me or will there be some big margins this week? Newcastle come limping into their first finals series since 2013, while the Bunnies enjoyed their largest winning margin over the arch enemy in their existence. Wayne Bennett has a knack of getting his side's firing at the right time of the season, and this is no different.
They go into the post-season having won seven of their last nine. They're not making up numbers, and neither are the Knights, who still have some massive names in their line-up. Cody Walker has notoriously struggled in some big games, but is such a confidence player and last week will have him sky-high and ready to rock and roll. Newcastle will come out with fire in their belly, but it won't be enough to stop the rampaging Rabbitohs. Rabbitohs by 19.
