I'm always loathe to make statements so early in the competition but after the first four rounds, we have at least an idea of what each club is capable of in 2022.
Occasionally a Manly 2021 situation happens where a side looks well off the pace in the early rounds only to click into gear and storm into a top-four spot.
That said, it doesn't happen often.
On the reverse, the Dragons have become known as March premiers across recent seasons. They launch out of the blocks, often winning three of four games early, before fading out and missing the finals.
I'm sure 2022 will provide something similar, but as it stands round now there are four very good sides, a host of decent sides to average, and three below-par sides.
Two of the average sides (and again, it is very early) thus far have been the Broncos and Bulldogs. Both sides underwent aggressive recruitment sprees and entered 2022 with renewed excitement.
Both also beat out a number of other sides to land marquee signings in the halves.
The Broncos beat a mega offer from the Sharks to secure premiership winning halfback Adam Reynolds while the Bulldogs absolutely stole superstar in the making in Matt Burton.
Reynolds and Burton have a lot in common. Both were wanted by their now former sides (as well as many others) but decided to back themselves on long-term deals elsewhere.
Both also moved from clubs who contested the 2021 NRL Grand Final to clubs who over recent years have certainly struggled. Burton's Bulldogs finished last in 2021 while in 2020 it was Reynolds' Broncos who propped up the competition.
While money no doubt came into both players decisions, Burton moved to clinch a halves position he would otherwise have not been given in Penrith, while Reynolds chased the security of a long-term deal north of the Tweed.
Despite both being set up for the long-term, you could be forgiven if you were either player for looking over your shoulder at what you left behind.
During his run with the Panthers, Burton became one of the elite centres in the game. He was in the 2021 Dally M team of the year and I have no doubt that if he had decided to stay at the foot of the mountains in the outside backs that he would be in the Origin conversation.
Meanwhile Reynolds was forced to play a one man hand this past weekend, scoring his side's only points against moderate to solid opposition.
Frustratingly, a final decision on his halves partner seems further away now than it did during the off-season.
Sticking with Reynolds, his loss has seen the Bunnies drop from the elite tier. Cody Walker has struggled without his partner in crime. Souths have struggled to match it with the big boys and even lost to the Broncos, sans Reynolds due to Covid.
I have no doubt in the world that the Bunnies would be better placed for another title tilt had Reynolds decided to stay with the red and green.
Reynolds in effect gave up a shot at a second premiership for a multi-year rebuild and a big, fat contract.
So to has Burton, who after a month of footy doesn't have a single try or try assist to his name. He scored 17 tries in the centres for Penrith and had 13 try assists despite seeing far less of the ball.
There is every chance that Burton will come out this weekend and kickstart a run of form that sees the Dogs fly up the ladder and consigns his time at Penrith to a beloved memory.
What if he doesn't though?
How much is a premiership worth? Burton isn't on a monster contract given he was signed by the Bulldogs before his incredible 2021.
I'd also argue that Burton could have commanded top dollar in October of last year. Right now though truthfully there are questions. Was he a system player at Penrith? Was he just in the right spot at the right time?
For the record I want to state I believe Burton will be a megastar in the halves and just needs time and better support, but could he not have achieved that at the end of 2024 with a second title under his belt?
Could Reynolds not have taken the one year extension, given the premiership a red hot crack then taken up a huge deal at the Dolphins?
Josh Addo-Carr went from being the game's top winger to an absolute shadow. He hasn't looked like crossing for a try since his move to the Bulldogs. Again, it'll happen but Melbourne look ready for another title chase while the Dogs will be flat chat making the finals.
I respect all of the aforementioned players for backing themselves and looking after their futures. They all have young families and lives to build.
That said, is it worth managers advising young stars like Matt Burton to stay in successful set ups and enjoy it while they can?
Right now I bet Burton, Reynolds and Addo-Carr would be a little envious, perhaps even looking at their former clubs and just quickly asking what might have been.
Ultimately it'll all work out but it certainly does give emerging stars in similar situations something to think about.
Legitimate questions. I suppose the answer is they will regret their decision to move only if what has transpired has not met their expectations.
I reckon Adam Reynolds decided a long term retirement in Queensland was the go for him. Flog the expensive house in Sydney and buy one for half the price in Brisbane. Good, three-year deal. No expectations of actually WINNING anything for the first couple of years, but by Year 3 Ben Ikin should have sorted out the front office and Kevvie should have got the team stable and firing, so who knows? Maybe a GF to round off the career.
Burton? Reckoned he wanted to be a half and reckoned no decent club would give him a start so he took the only offer open. As long as he went in with his eyes open and realised that the Canterbury contract was going to be an opportunity to learn a new position, rather than a chance for glory, then he shouldn’t be disillusioned.
Addo-Carr? He’s neither at the end of his career looking for money, nor at the start of his career looking for a new opportunity. I can’t envisage what he hoped to find at Canterbury. Whatever it was, I doubt that he has found it.
Certainly, all three would he happier if they had landed at clubs that were going better, but I reckon Reynolds and Burton will not rue the day they signed their contracts. Josh, however. No idea.
What I do know, however, is three high profile players who will be happy with their decision to move. These are Cam McInnes, Dale Finucane and Nicho Hynes. Good money for the first two and an opportunity for the third – and all in a club which has started the season well.