For one team, just four weeks stand between them and the Provan-Summons trophy.

The NRL finals have arrived, and so too have the biggest games of the season. There is some mouth-watering first week action. The Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm? Yes please. The Penrith Panthers and South Sydney Rabbitohs again? Oh yes.

Those two games could tell us who is going to the grand final before we get past Week 1, given only the North Queensland Cowboys have played in Week 2 of the finals and made the grand final in the last four seasons.

And how about those elimination games? They could be anything. The Titans took the Roosters all the way in a 35-34 thriller last time, while the Eels form line could mean anything.

It might be tough to mount an argument for the teams in the bottom four of the top eight to win the premiership, but we'll give it a crack anyway.

Here is why your team can and can't win the premiership.

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Gold Coast Titans

Why they can win the premiership
The Titans are an incredibly dangerous second-phase team. They sit fifth in the competition for offloads, but second out of all those teams who have made the top eight.

With over 250 offloads for the season, it puts them at over ten per game, and while they will come up against better defences, if they can get that part of their own game right and play the risky style of footy which saw them flog the Warriors 44-0 last Sunday, then it's not off the cards Justin Holbrook's men could cause an upset.

They have some of the best in the game at doing it - players like David Fifita who bafflingly continues to be used off the bench and Jarrod Wallace. Fifita is fifth in the competition, while Wallace sits 12th with 33 of his own.

It's a big if, but second-phase play is the Titans' only real chance of making something happening. It'll look horrendous if it doesn't come off, but it's where they have to go.

Why they can't win the premiership
The Titans inability to beat top-six teams is alarming. While they have ran up 30 points time and time again against those teams outside the top six, it's a different story against the competition's top teams.

In nine attempts, they are yet to beat any of the six sides who ran away in the top half of the ladder.

It gets worse still, with their defence the major issue. They let in more than 36 points per game against those sides who they will come up against in the finals.

It's an embarrassing stat, one which puts them in the same defensive class as the Cowboys and Bulldogs, and they are next to no chance of winning finals games while it exists.

NRL Rd 2 - Titans v Broncos
GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 19: David Fifita of the Titans celebrates during the round two NRL match between the Gold Coast Titans and the Brisbane Broncos at Cbus Super Stadium on March 19, 2021, in Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images)
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