For one team, just four weeks stand between them and the Provan-Summons trophy.
The NRL finals have arrived, and so too have the biggest games of the season. There is some mouth-watering first week action. The Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm? Yes please. The Penrith Panthers and South Sydney Rabbitohs again? Oh yes.
Those two games could tell us who is going to the grand final before we get past Week 1, given only the North Queensland Cowboys have played in Week 2 of the finals and made the grand final in the last four seasons.
And how about those elimination games? They could be anything. The Titans took the Roosters all the way in a 35-34 thriller last time, while the Eels form line could mean anything.
It might be tough to mount an argument for the teams in the bottom four of the top eight to win the premiership, but we'll give it a crack anyway.
Here is why your team can and can't win the premiership.
Newcastle Knights
Why they can win the premiership
Kalyn Ponga. The guy is a gamebreaker. He hasn't shown it a great deal this season in what is the competition's worst attack, but he did in State of Origin Game 3.
The Port Hedland-born Western Australian proved exactly what Queensland were missing on that stage, albeit a dead rubber.
The question now is whether he can do it for Newcastle. Once you're in the finals, it doesn't matter what the regular season record is or whether "you deserve to be there."
It's about how you can string four of the best games you've ever played together. If Ponga does that, especially in combination with Mitchell Pearce and Jake Clifford, the Knights will be a chance.
Why they can't win the premiership
Their attack. I know we just talked about Ponga, but a strategy of "throw the ball to Ponga and see what happens," doesn't work.
The only way Ponga becomes that game-breaker is if he isn't used in every single set of six and is allowed to be patient in trying to make things happen.
The Knights have the second-worst attack in the competition and have struggled to put points on some of the worst defensive outfits in recent weeks.
It's a mystery how they have done enough to qualify for the finals based on the numbers alone, but they have, and unless Adam O'Brien's side can find rapid improvement, they can forget about a push any further.
