With 2025 done and dusted, the 2026 season looms as a potential pivot point for several clubs.
Some have the pieces - depth, returning players, momentum - to vault up the ladder. Others, even if still competitive, could slip simply because of attrition, draw difficulty or squad wear-and-tear.
Below are three clubs who look primed for a jump - and three who may find next year a tougher ask than many expect.
Slider: Melbourne Storm
Melbourne enter 2026 in a significantly changed state. The club has lost a cluster of key contributors - men whose game-impact and leadership helped carry them through previous seasons - which might leave the Storm weaker, slower and more vulnerable than many realise.
First, there's the loss of the intimidating, physical engine in the pack: Nelson Asofa-Solomona has departed after a storied 215-game career with the Storm. The “wrecking-ball” forward and classic Storm middle-third presence isn't easily replaced.
His departure strips the team of both collision power and a forward identity that underpinned many of their clutch forward sets and defensive stands.
Then comes the tragic absence of Eliesa Katoa - last season's standout back-rower - who has been ruled out for the entire 2026 NRL season following a brain bleed sustained while representing Tonga and subsequent head-injury surgery. That's a major hit: not just for go-forward and edge-running punch, but for balance across the pack, second-phase strength, and defensive grunt under heat.
On top of that, their back-three and spine have taken blows too. Ryan Papenhuyzen - once among the most dangerous fullbacks in the league - has walked away from his 2026 deal (effectively retiring from the Storm), leaving a gap in speed, counter-attack threat and broken-field potential.
And the club has lost several other peripheral contributors - including youngsters and depth edges like Jonah Pezet, Bronson Garlick and Grant Anderson - further thinning the cushion against attrition and fatigue.
Collectively, that's not a handful of minor tweaks - it's a wholesale reset of what powered their pack and spine for years. In a competition as cruel and close as the NRL, that kind of turnover doesn't just make for vulnerability - it often leads to a slide.
But losses aren't the only problem. Melbourne's 2026 draw appears particularly brutal. With fresh threats reloaded at most clubs and forwards across the competition reinforced, the Storm will get no easy rides.
Without their usual forward grunt, their edge-running or middle-third strength - both compromised - they will be under constant pressure to grind for territory, defend longer sets, and create chances with limited strike power. Over 24 rounds, that's exactly the kind of drain that eats at depth, stamina and consistency.
Finally, the psychological edge and organisational cohesion the Storm relied on may take a hit. Teams like Melbourne often survive lean patches because their identity is ingrained: the right effort, tackle count, discipline, and structure.
But when key players leave - the heavy centres, the strike backs, the hard-running edges - that identity becomes harder to maintain. Wavering confidence, inconsistent metres, and less go-forward means they're more likely to lose tight games than beat them - and over a long season, tight games decide ladder positions.
Projected Swing: 2nd → 7th-10th
Wow, I really thought that Bulldogs could be on here, but thankfully they aren’t.
I think all of them are right except Raiders and Storm, they both are still very good team even without those players.
That’s a well-written and challenging piece, Matt.
I follow the arguments and the rationale for all of the clubs.
The only one with which I have a real problem is your assessment of Newcastle.
I read the words, and the sentences make sense, but I am unconvinced by the argument. The expected spine looks a lot more expensive than all the combinations tried in 2025, but I’m not convinced that they will be much more effective.
I can see the club rising, in the sense that from the bottom of the table the only way is up. However, I can’t see Newcastle rising by anywhere near as much as you envisage.
“Not because they lack talent, but because they have reached the point where structural certainty, leadership stability and injury reliability are all sitting on the wrong side of probability.”
That style reminds me of Clive James in his literary criticism days.
And that is a compliment.