With 2025 done and dusted, the 2026 season looms as a potential pivot point for several clubs.

Some have the pieces - depth, returning players, momentum - to vault up the ladder. Others, even if still competitive, could slip simply because of attrition, draw difficulty or squad wear-and-tear.

Below are three clubs who look primed for a jump - and three who may find next year a tougher ask than many expect.

Slider: Canberra Raiders

The Raiders reached the top of the mountain in 2025 - minor premiers for the first time in 35 years. But the way the season ended, and what they've lost since, strongly suggests 2026 won't look like a repeat of the fairy tale.

The straight-sets finals exit was the first red flag. Canberra played with control and maturity for most of the regular season, but as soon as the tempo jumped in September, their structure wilted.

Their right-edge defence, reliable all year, was repeatedly targeted and conceded momentum in big moments. When finals football exposed their lack of a second gear, it confirmed that 2025 was more “peak execution” than “new normal”.

Then came the real destabiliser: Jamal Fogarty's departure. He wasn't just a halfback - he was the organiser, tempo controller and the only player in the squad who consistently understood when to play fast versus when to compress and kick long.

Without Fogarty, Canberra lose their tactical metronome. And instead of replacing him with a proven NRL No.7, they are staring at 2026 with a depth chart topped by kids who might become good - but aren't yet:

  • Ethan Sanders: high-IQ, impressive junior organiser, but hasn't run an NRL pack through a full year.
  • Coby Black: superb talent, brilliant at age-level, exceptional ceiling - but still an 18-year-old halfback being asked to replace a captain-level general.

Canberra could be starting 2026 with a literal rookie in the most fragile job in rugby league: managing yardage, kicking to corners, dictating short-side vs long-side usage, controlling ruck speed, and calming the team when momentum swings against them. That isn't a talent question - that's a psychological one. You can't shortcut reps at halfback.

The Raiders still have the muscle memory that won them 2025: a disciplined pack, edge continuity, a hard-working defensive engine, and a coach in Ricky Stuart who can still create siege mentality better than anyone. But the difference between 1st and 6th isn't effort - it's polish.

Without Fogarty's polish, Canberra risk becoming a team that wins field position but not moments.

Projected Swing: 1st → 7th–9th

3 COMMENTS

  2. That’s a well-written and challenging piece, Matt.

    I follow the arguments and the rationale for all of the clubs.
    The only one with which I have a real problem is your assessment of Newcastle.

    I read the words, and the sentences make sense, but I am unconvinced by the argument. The expected spine looks a lot more expensive than all the combinations tried in 2025, but I’m not convinced that they will be much more effective.

    I can see the club rising, in the sense that from the bottom of the table the only way is up. However, I can’t see Newcastle rising by anywhere near as much as you envisage.

  3. “Not because they lack talent, but because they have reached the point where structural certainty, leadership stability and injury reliability are all sitting on the wrong side of probability.”

    That style reminds me of Clive James in his literary criticism days.
    And that is a compliment.